The good news for Florida State: The Seminoles are 17th in the AP Preseason Top 25 Rankings, their highest preseason ranking since 1989. The bad news for Florida State: Since 2006, only half of the teams ranked 17th in the preseason poll have made the NCAA Tournament.
Over the last 12 years, only three preseason AP Top 25 spots have a tourney bid rate lower than 75 percent: No. 19 (67 percent), No. 17 (50 percent) and No. 21 (50 percent). Defending national runner-up Michigan is 19th, and UCLA landed the dreaded 21st position. The Bruins were 21st last season and snuck into the field as an 11-seed — and lost to St. Bonaventure in the First Four.
Only five preseason spots have sent 100 percent of teams to the tourney since the 2006-07 season: No. 1, No. 2, No. 4, No. 5 and, surprisingly, No. 13.
Using only the AP Top 25, here are 2019 NCAA Tournament predictions for each top-25 team:
Tourney: Percent of teams who made the tournament.
Seed: Average seed of teams who made the tournament.
Wins: Average tourney wins for all teams.
No Wins: Percent of all teams who failed to win a tournament game.