If I'm Mississippi State, I'm filing a formal complaint with the NCAA. The Bulldogs had to play a Catholic school for the national championship on Easter Sunday? Talk about an unfair advantage.
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Our Sunday card gave you three winners and zero losers. Ho-hum. We're good at this.
I'm going to take all this newfound expertise and tell you exactly what to do with tonight's Division 1 men's national championship game. My advice might surprise you…
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Michigan vs Villanova (-7), 9:05 p.m. EST
Total: 144.5
I'm going to keep it real, here — there is no chance in hell I'm betting this game.
Villanova just waxed Kansas. You'd be betting the Wildcats at their absolute highest value, which is never a smart thing to do in any game. Most sharps are staying away from Villanova.
Then, on the other hand, Villanova is 5-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament and certainly feels like a team of destiny at this point. I'm not going against them, either.
If anything, I'm looking at the total here. The whole world loves the over, after all those threes we just saw in the semifinal, but the under is actually the smarter play here. Michigan's defense, and the massive trend in the national championship toward games in the 60s and 70s, all point toward playing the under.
Then again, we just played the under in Villanova's last game, and got burned behind their shooting. So do I really want to subject myself to that again?
If you're going to make me bet this game, I'm taking the under. But I'd much rather stay away and look for a better play somewhere else.
Pick: Under 144.5
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Rockies at Padres, 10:10 p.m. EST
Total: 8
If, like me, you're looking for another option tonight, then allow me to point you in the direction of this early NL West showdown. The Padres just got swept by Milwaukee, a power-hitting club. Now, the Rockies are coming to town with virtually even odds. (At MyBookie, it's a literal 110 split; I've seen Colorado as a slight, slight, slight underdog at other books.)
Tonight, San Diego is unleashing Bryan Mitchell, a young prospect it acquired from the Yankees in the offseason. And guess what? Mitchell had a pretty terrible spring training. So while I don't have a ton of confidence in Rockies starter Chad Bettis, I have even less in Mitchell, the matchup and the Padres lineup. Roll with Colorado here, as the Rockies are being undervalued. I'd grade them as slight favorites in the -120 range.
Pick: Rockies -110
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NEXT: One NHL team ran out of Goalies. They turned to an Accountant.
