I just can't quit you, Nevada.
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On Thursday, we locked in a bet on the Nevada Wolf Pack to cover a five-point spread in the Mountain West tournament against rival UNLV. The spread pushed, largely because senior guard Hallice Cooke got T'd up with 73 seconds left to go in the game.
Believe it or not, it's the Free Pick's first-ever push. We're returning to the Mountain West conference tournament today, with another strong pick on Nevada.
San Diego State vs Nevada (-2.5), 9 p.m. EST
This game is a great example of identifying the reasoning behind a point spread. If you can do that — if you can figure out what the potential trap is in any given bet — you dramatically increase the strength of your position.
Nevada is likely only a short favorite here because, as we detailed yesterday, the Wolfpack lost their last last regular season game at San Diego State, 79-74. But I like Nevada's chances for revenge on a neutral court, and because of the recent loss, the line comes to you suppressed in order to limit the value of the underdog. This is great value for Nevada, so we'll roll with them for a second straight day.
Hopefully, there are no late technical fouls in this one.
Pick: Nevada -2.5
Bennett Rank Picks for March 9, 2018
Louisiana -11.5 over Texas State
All I can tell you here is that 11.5 points is a lot to give up in a conference tournament game.
The Bennett Power Score (BPS) was created as a point spread predictor on a neutral court. BPS is based on adjusted margins of victory and strength of schedule for games played to date. More recent games are weighted more heavily. These are updated twice daily as scores are reported and are the foundation for BennettRank (BR). BR ranks all major college sports and divisions twice daily. See all current basketball rankings here.