A happy return to you, my fellow degenerate. Welcome back to Edge Sorting, the weekly gambling column here at HERO Sports that focuses on college football games that don't have the full attention of bookmakers.
If you jumped on board the Edge Sorting hype train last week, then congratulations! You probably made a lot of money in a very short amount of time. In the column's second week, I went 8-0 on recommended picks and hit on my 14-team parlay, chipping in another $2,000. That's a lot of cheddar.
So yeah, as it turns out, I do know what I'm doing. Tell that to Leslie in Accounts Receivable, who thought leaving a full-time newspaper job to write about gambling was childish and irresponsible. I'M DOING GREAT, LESLIE, THANKS FOR ASKING.
Anyway, nature has clearly decided to make this week harder on me, sending a massive hurricane at my humble Virginia home and forcing cancellations across the mid-Atlantic region. As a result, all of my favorite lines were blown away. Virginia Tech swallowing four touchdowns against overvalued East Carolina? Gone. West Virginia/NC State Over 48? Nope. Appalachian State still not favored by more than a couple of touchdowns against another meh G5 team? Off the board.
After a perfect week, Hurricane Florence is making me take my game to the next level. So before the lights go out over here, get yourself to a safe place with plenty of bottled water, then find a hotel lobby with ESPN in their cable package. You should definitely get at least one game in before any employees calls the police.
On to the Week 3 Picks!
[divider]BETNOW: Get 100% Bonus
TOP 100: All Aboard the Herm Edwards Hype Train
SUBSCRIBE: The Hot Route Podcast[divider]
Florida State (-3) at Syracuse
Saturday, 12 p.m.
In my opening, I mentioned that all of my favorite games got canceled or postponed by the Hurricane, but that's not entirely true. There's still one game that I really like, and that's undefeated Syracuse getting three points as a home dog against Florida State. The Seminoles have looked extraordinarily average so far this season, with a blowout loss to Virginia Tech and a come-from-behind win over a top-10 FCS team, Samford.
You may recall that we were all over the easy Samford pick last week. Florida State had no business laying 30+ points against a future NFL quarterback on a short week. That game played out exactly like I thought it would. Somewhat surprisingly, though, there hasn't been much of an adjustment on Florida State's value. Given the vulnerabilities that Florida State has displayed on defense and along the offensive line, this game feels like a pick-em, or even a game where Syracuse should be favored. Instead, the line opened with Syracuse as a 2.5-point underdog. It was bet up to 3.5, before settling back in at three. I expect that's where it will stay until Saturday morning, when sharp action will likely come in heavy on the Orange. Take the line now, before it goes down. Syracuse wins this game outright.
Pick: Syracuse +3
[divider]
Duke (+6) at Baylor
Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
Baylor has zero business being an almost-touchdown favorite against another P5 team that isn't named Kansas or Rutgers. Baylor's two wins come by big margins, but they came against Abilene Christian (a bad FCS team) and UTSA. Duke has a stronger resume, with wins over Army and Northwestern on the road. Like the FSU-Syracuse game, the only explanation I can come up with here is that Duke is a basketball school and not a public football team. But David Cutcliffe is, for my money, one of the best coaches in college football, and the post-scandal brain drain at Baylor is still very real. Back Duke plus the points in a game where the Blue Devils have an excellent chance to win outright.
Pick: Duke +6
[divider]
Wofford (+13) at Wyoming
Saturday, 4:00 p.m.
Wofford is a top-25 FCS team that lives in that 11-20 range. The Terriers are physical and run the ball effectively, but they're also a one-dimensional team that doesn't play particularly well from behind. I expect Wyoming's defensive front to really challenge Wofford's offensive line and try to make it win the game by throwing the ball. This probably leads to an early deficit. I'm thinking Wyoming covers this line, which started at -14 and has come down to -13. However, if your book offers a first-half line here, I think Wofford plus the points could be an interesting counter-play.
Pick: Wyoming -13
[divider]
Montana (+6) at Western Illinois
Saturday, 4 p.m. EDT
Usually, I save FCS picks for my FCS Game of the Week. But with the Florence cancellations, and two really appetizing FCS games this week, I just had to throw this one in here at the end of my regular picks.
I'm going to sound like a broken record here, but Montana is the better team in this matchup. Western got manhandled by Montana State in Week 1, and I'm not really sold on how good that Bobcats team is just yet. On the other hand, Montana worked a Northern Iowa team that should be a top-half MVFC team. Now, the Griz are going on the road to play WIU, and in the view of pretty much every FCS analyst everywhere, the Grizzlies are the clear-cut favorite. The offense is more methodical and the defensive is more reliable. Montana plus the points is the only reasonable side in play here.
This line has jumped all over the place, going north of 7.5 and back down. I have been shouting very loudly about the point spread on this game all week, and action is finally starting to drive the line down. Last I checked, it's down to Montana +6, but I expect it'll dive much lower. Get to it soon. Montana wins by 7-10 points, which makes this pick a complete no-brainer.
Pick: Montana +6
[divider]
EVERY GAME AFFECTED BY HURRICANE FLORENCE: FBS | FCS
[divider]
FCS GAME OF THE WEEK
San Diego (-3) at Harvard
Saturday, 12 p.m. EDT
No Scholarship Game! Pioneer League Champ San Diego travels east for an early kick with perennial Ivy League power Harvard. The Toreros have been the best the Pioneer League has to offer these last couple years, but I have a feeling they could take just a slight step backward this year. Either way, they're a west coast team playing at noon in New England against a good Harvard team.
Oh, and Harvard is a home dog. Are any of these games being handicapped correctly?
Pick: Harvard +3
[divider]
WEEKDAYS ARE FOR GAMBLING
Georgia State (+28) at Memphis
Friday, 7 p.m. EDT
If you follow me on Twitter, you've probably seen me talk about my love for weeknight unders. I gave out the TCU/SMU under as a bonus play last week, which cashed, and this week, I'm officially on the under in the Georgia State/Memphis game.
For one thing, Unders cash most often when the favorite wins/covers, and Georgia State has no shot at Memphis in this game.
More importantly, weeknight games trend toward the Under at an insane rate. I don't know if it's the short week, the outside-of-the-Saturday-routine game or the nighttime setting for teams who aren't used to playing at night. Either way, weeknight unders are moneymakers. This feels like a 38-13 type of game in the first place, so give me the under.
Pick: Georgia State/Memphis Under 58
[divider]
THE MASSIVE FAVORITE
Georgia Southern (+33) at Clemson
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Clemson is pretty far inland down in South Carolina, so I don't know how exactly this game will be affected by weather, but even a hurricane couldn't neutralize Clemson's advantage at the line of scrimmage here. Georgia Southern is a run-heavy team going up against the nastiest D-Line in college football, so give me Clemson anywhere south of -35. When your team can only really do one thing, and the better team's specialty is taking away that specific thing, it's probably going to be a long day.
Oh, and for added value, Clemson just won a close game with A&M, so this line might be just a point or two suppressed off of what it could have been otherwise. Yeah, give me the Tigers.
Pick: Clemson -33
[divider]
THE PRO GAME
Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Here are two NFL teams who are traditionally associated with defense but whose identities are clearly offensive right now. Even without Le'Veon Bell on the field, the Steelers are a capable team that should score three or four touchdowns here. And the Chiefs! Their offensive showing in Week 1 was… impressive.
Forget the brands attached to the teams. This game is going to be a shootout. Back the over on a pretty reasonable total here.
Pick: Chiefs/Steelers Over 52.5
[divider]
WEEK 2 REVISITED: Chase Picked All Eight Games Correctly?!
2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 13-3
[divider]
SUBSCRIBE: The Hot Route Podcast | The FCS Podcast
[divider]
#2KParlay
When last we met, I was talking about how the 2K Parlay is not a real exercise in trying to make money gambling. Then, obviously, we hit last week's parlay, which paid out around $1,700 after the no action on JMU/Norfolk State. Not bad, for a silly little game I like to play.
Look, it's awesome that the parlay hit, but I want to remind people that the odds are these parlays I'm constructing are extremely long. I'm not going to rattle off a winner every other week. Remember — the #2KParlay is more game than gambling. We're just trying to see how far the ticket can go. If I can hit one every once in a while, then great! Buy yourself a new Playstation. However, the real meat and potatoes here in the column are the single picks above. Focus your investment up there.
Okay, boring stuff out of the way. Let's see if we can go back-to-back.
- Georgia State/Memphis Under 58
- Maryland ML
- Notre Dame ML
- Ohio/Virginia Under 53.5
- Auburn ML
- South Florida ML
- Georgia ML
- Northwestern ML
- Southern Utah/Arizona Under 71
- Harvard +3
- Dartmouth ML
- Samford ML
- Montana +6
- Chattanooga +2.5
- Bryant ML
- James Madison -40.5
- Nicholls +4.5
17-leg parlay, $5 to win $2,360.45
And with that.. we're out of here 'til next week. I don't expect to go 8-0 again this week, but I'm so in the black through two weeks of the season that it almost doesn't matter!
…Well, almost. I enjoy winning more than I like the money.
A couple leans for your Thursday night action: I like the Ravens to advance to 2-0, so I'd back the short road favorite. I'm a big fan of the under in the Wake Forest/Boston College game, too. The NFL pick is a true lean; I'll be betting the ACC game for real.
Good luck, and don't forget — fortune favors the bold!
[divider]
CONFESSIONS OF AN ODDSMAKER: MyBookie's David Strauss reveals Wheel of Fortune Prop Bet Feud
