A happy return to you, my fellow degenerate. Welcome back to Edge Sorting, the weekly gambling column here at HERO Sports that focuses on college football games that don't have the full attention of bookmakers.
Look, I like to keep it pretty real with you guys. The last two weeks here at Edge Sorting have been pretty mediocre. After a white-hot start, any seasoned gambler should expect regression, but I'm still unhappy.
With that in mind, I'm getting back to the basics this week. I focused my attention this week on qualitative analysis of unders and underdogs — the bread and butter of professional gamblers everywhere. I really like how the picks turned out.
Let's get on to the Week 7 Picks!
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TOP 100: Texas is Back! Again!
RECRUITING ANALYSIS: More than 30 FBS teams have Offered 250+ 2019 Recruits
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Nebraska at Northwestern
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
We talked about this game on the Week 7 edition of the Hot Route Gambling podcast, which you can find embedded below in this post. I don't really understand the point spread or the total in this game. 60 seems way to high for a Big 10 game like this, and Northwestern teased as a 3.5-point favorite (the line has since gone up to 4) doesn't make much since to me, either. I understand that the Wildcats are in a slight let-down spot here after winning in East Lansing, but even before that game, I'd still have taken Northwestern as a six-point favorite at home against winless Nebraska. I'm giving out the under here as my official pick, because 59.5 seems about 10 full points too high, but I'm highly recommending you parlay that with Northwestern minus the points. This seems like free candy to me. The Cornhuskers aren't just 0-5 straight up — they're 1-4 ATS, too.
Pick: Under 59.5
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Wyoming (+18) at Fresno State
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Not sure what's going on with these numbers, either. You can't give me 18 points when the total is 43. More than 60% of tickets are swallowing the points with Fresno, according to Covers, so this is a strong public fade. Sharpest play of the week here.
Pick: Wyoming +18
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Houston (-16) at East Carolina
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
I've had enough of laying big points on the road with Texas favorites over the last two weeks, but I'm not going to take the ride with ECU here, either. Instead, I like the value on the total, which I think is just a smidge too high at 69.5. The over has covered in three out of four ECU totals in games versus FBS competition this year. Those numbers were 59.5 (North Carolina), 67 (South Florida), 60.5 (Old Dominion) and 53 (Temple), and the over cashed in all but the USF game. Houston brings the best defense of any of those teams to date, yet the total is also the highest. This is an overcorrection from the books, looking to protect themselves from headhunters looking to play overs in games with bad teams. Even after garbage time scoring from ECU, this score should still stay in the high 50s or low 60s. Houston wins, 41-24.
Pick: Houston/ECU Under 69.5
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Wisconsin (+9.5) at Michigan
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
…Is this a joke? Am I being pranked?
Give me the undervalued team getting almost 10 points playing against the guy who hasn't won a big game since he showed up in Ann Arbor.
Pick: Wisconsin +9.5
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FCS GAME OF THE WEEK
Central Connecticut State (-4) at Bryant
Saturday, 3 p.m. EDT
CCSU is a good team. It won the NEC in 2017 and hasn't lost a conference game since November 2016. I think that streak could end this weekend, though, as Bryant pulls the upset against a Blue Devils team that doesn't look as strong on defense as it was a year ago. Central Connecticut State has only held a Division I opponent to under 30 points once so far this season; Bryant is the best offensive team in the conference. I like the Bulldogs to get an outright win here, so the four-point cushion makes this a great play.
Pick: Bryant +4
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WEEKDAYS ARE FOR GAMBLING
Air Force (+11.5) at San Diego State
Friday, 9 p.m. EDT
Easy call. The Aztechs are in a letdown spot after a big road win at Boise State. They also haven't won a game by double digits all year; they're also 0-1 ATS as a favorite and 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
On a short week, following a big win, take the inherent value baked into the point spread here. Air Force covers in a close loss.
Pick: Air Force +11.5
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HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE
Rutgers (+25.5) at Maryland
Saturday, 12:00 p.m.
I did not wake up today dying to bet on the Rutgers football team. You've gotta really dig deep for the confidence to swing something like this. But Rutgers has looked better in losses to more approachable teams like Indiana and Illinois over these last few weeks, and Maryland is definitely in that same class of approachable Big 10 teams.
I get it. This is going to taste bad. Just hold your nose and do it. Rutgers was so bad out of the gate that there's actually a little bit of value here now.
Pick: Rutgers +25.5
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THE PRO GAME
Seattle at Oakland
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
I did lose my pro pick betting against Seattle last week, but overall, my pro picks have been pretty good. In this spot, I'm not sure Seattle has any business being a road favorite; the public is overvaluing Seattle after a close showing with the Rams and betting the Seahawks much more heavily than they deserve. Some of the early data I'm looking at shows that three out of five tickets are on Seattle to cover as a road favorite.
Oakland's defense has not been particularly good this year, but neither has Seattle's offensive line. I like Oakland in this spot for a lot of reasons — not only is it a public fade, but it's also a buy-low on the Raiders after last week's game against the Chargers, as well as a sell-high on Seattle after a near-upset of a conference opponent. Raiders win outright.
Pick: Raiders +3
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WEEK 6 REVISITED: Alabama Burns us on a Missed PAT; Weeknight Unders are (Still) Easy Money
2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 26-21-1
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#2KParlay
- Boston College ML
- Louisville/Boston College Under 61
- South Carolina +2.5
- Houston/ECU Under 69.5
- Washington ML
- Northwestern -3.5
- Nebraska/Northwestern Under 59.5
- Auburn ML
- Texas ML
- Florida ML
- Penn State ML
- Cal ML
- Wyoming +19.5
- Kansas City/New England Over 59.5
14-leg parlay, $5 to win $2,676
And with that.. we're out of here 'til next week. Dogs and Unders is how most gamblers cut their teeth, so I feel really great about this week's picks. We're getting back to form.
Thursday night leans? The Philadelphia Eagles haven't exactly expired a lot of confidence, but the Giants have been really abysmal. I'd swallow the two points with Philly on the road. I'm a big fan of Texas Tech +7, too — FEI has Texas Tech as the outright better team, which I tend to agree. Tech snuck their way into the Top 25 before losing at home to undefeated West Virginia. I suspect the Red Raiders are still a top 25 team, so I'd back Tech plus the points against a TCU team that looks just a little down from the typical Gary Patterson benchmark.
Good luck in Week 7, and don't forget — fortune favors the bold!
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