Charleston is heading to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999.
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The Cougars punched their tourney ticket after erasing a 17-point second-half deficit vs. Northeastern in the CAA Championship on Tuesday night. After trailing 42-25 with 17 minutes remaining, they forced overtime, where they scored 18 points to beat the Huskies, 83-76.
All four of Charleston's previous tourney appearances came during a six-year run from 1994-99, including three straight from 1997-99. They were a 12-seed in both 1994 and 1997, 14-seed in 1998 and 8-seed in 1999. While Earl Grant's team will not earn their second-ever top-10 seed, there is a chance — albeit slim — of landing on the 12-line.
First, for what it's worth, as of Wednesday morning, Charleston had an average seeding of 13.88 on Bracket Matrix, who takes the average of 133 different Bracketology projections. The highest seed was 13; the lowest was 15.
Second, the data, specifically the NCAA Team Sheets. In comparing Charleston's Team Sheet vs. 11 other teams projected to be the highest-seeded mid-major auto bids, the Cougars are solid in Quadrant 1 and 2 wins (five total, tied for most among all teams):
Charleston, however, is dead last in average metric. Their decent RPI (65) is crushed by sub-100 ratings in BPI, POM and SAG, which bring the average to 99.17, or more than 30 points below five teams vying for a 12-seed.
If Middle Tennessee earns an 11-seed, as projected in the latest edition of HERO Sports Bracketology, that pushes an at-large play-in game to the 12-line, meaning there are only three more 12-seeds available. One will go to Loyola Chicago and another to New Mexico State.
Are Charleston's two more Quadrant 2 wins than South Dakota State enough to push them ahead of the Jackrabbits? Or one more Q2 win than UNC Greensboro or a 29-point metric deficit vs. Louisiana ? I say no and South Dakota State gets the final 12-seed, which puts Charleston in a fight for 13-seed.
Projection: Charleston earns the final 13-seed, alongside Louisiana, Vermont and UNC Greensboro.
