No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games this week.
Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Prediction
I predict Buffalo will win and therefore cover the 2.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 44.5 total points.
Both teams are pretty balanced. I expect this to be a closely-contested battle with plenty of scoring in the final minutes.
Buffalo is third in the MAC in scoring defense and total defense with 19.6 points and 323.6 yards per game allowed. The Bulls are also in the top five for scoring offense (24.8 points per game) and total offense (357.7 yards per game allowed).
The Chippewas aren’t great in any of those departments. They’re sixth in scoring offense (24.1 PPG) and scoring defense (24 PPG allowed) while ranking seventh in total offense (338.9 YPG) and total defense (357.8 YPG allowed).
I think Buffalo has a slight advantage on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. I think that will help them on the road.
On offense, Buffalo quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson has thrown for 1,739 yards, 12 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on a 61% completion rate while rushing for 149 yards and two TDs. Al-Jay Henderson has rushed for 663 yards and five TDs. Nik McMillan (42 receptions for 590 yards and one TD) and Victor Snow (45 catches for 586 yards and seven TDs) are Buffalo’s leading receivers.
On defense, Buffalo linebacker Red Murdock is fourth in the country with 105 tackles and is tied for the team lead with 4.5 sacks to go with six forced fumbles. Dion Crawford (61 tackles), Junior Poyser (4.5 sacks and 24 tackles), and Kobe Stewart (3.5 sacks and 36 tackles) have made important plays up front.
With talent like that on both sides of the ball, and a shot at the MAC Championship on the line, I think Buffalo pulls off a close victory.
Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) Prediction
I predict Miami (Ohio) will win and therefore cover the 3.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
Toledo is superior in several statistical categories. The Rockets are first in the MAC in scoring offense (32.9 points per game), total offense (437.2 yards per game), scoring defense (14.6 points per game allowed), and total defense (232.6 yards per game allowed).
But the problem is Toledo hasn’t been very consistent. The Rockets haven’t won or lost more than three games in a row. And that discrepancy has depended on where they’ve played. Toledo is 0-4 on the road and 5-0 at home – and the Rockets are on the road for this one.
And it’s not like Miami is bad on either side of the ball. The RedHawks are among the top four teams in the MAC in total offense (359.4 YPG), total defense (327.9 YPG allowed), scoring offense (25.3 PPG), and scoring defense (21.7 PPG allowed).
Miami quarterback Dequan Finn also gets to take on his former team in this matchup. Finn was the MVP of the MAC while playing for Toledo two years ago before going to Baylor last year and then joining the RedHawks this season. I think he makes a number of impressive plays against the Rockets.
But I especially believe Miami’s defense, led by linebackers Corban Hondru and Jackson Kuwatch and defensive back Eli Blakey, will rise to the occasion and help the RedHawks bounce back for a win.
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Prediction
I predict UMass will win and therefore cover the 11.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 43.5 total points.
I think the Minutemen are desperate to not go down as one of the worst teams in FBS history with no wins. So that’s why I think they’ll overperform compared to how they’ve played this season.
UMass is last in the country in total offense (244.6 yards per game) and scoring offense (11.3 points per game) and bottom 10 in total defense (441.8 yards per game allowed) and scoring defense (36.78 points per game allowed).
But it’s not like NIU has been stellar in any of those categories, either. The Huskies are outside of the top five in the MAC in scoring offense (12.2 PPG), scoring defense (24.3 PPG allowed), total offense (268 YPG), and total defense (354.9 YPG allowed).
I expect UMass will start this game at home with a lot of energy. I also anticipate players on both sides of the ball will step up to help the Minutemen win their first game of the year.
