Entering last week’s game against Tulsa, Florida Atlantic had yet to intercept a pass. The Owls changed that quickly and snagged an interception on the first possession of the game.
FAU added another interception and a 95-yard scoop-and-score in the first half to take a commanding lead. Tulsa went on to lose 40-21 and didn’t cover the spread as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
Here’s this week’s selection (with college football betting odds as of this writing).
ULM (+4.5, +165) vs. South Alabama
It’s been a bleak season for both teams as they sit near the bottom of the Sun Belt standings.
South Alabama is 2-7 and was on a six-game losing streak prior to defeating Georgia State three weeks ago. The Warhawks haven’t won a game since Sept. 27. I anticipate both teams are hungry for a win and this will be a tight game.
An area where the Jaguars have struggled this season is generating pressure and getting stops in the backfield. Their eight sacks are the lowest in the league, and their 42 tackles for loss are the second lowest. ULM has allowed only 14 sacks this season, but they have surrendered 63 TFLs.
If ULM’s offensive line is able to get a push up front, then I think the running back duo of Zach Palmer-Smith and Braylon McReynolds can keep the chains moving for the Warhawks’ offense. The Jaguars are allowing 190 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. ULM likes to run the ball and has attempted the least amount of passes in the league (225). It is averaging 179 rushing YPG.
The Jaguars also tend to favor running the ball and have the second-least pass attempts in the Sun Belt. I think both teams try to lean on the run game here which could make for a low-scoring game that burns the clock. Those contests typically bode well for the underdog. The Over/Under is at 51 points.
South Alabama is 1-5 against the spread this season as a favorite and ULM is 1-4 as an underdog.
Honorable Mentions
Ball State (+3, +115) vs. EMU
I selected the Cardinals as the G5 Underdog two weeks ago, but they fell apart late in a 14-point loss to Northern Illinois.
This week, Ball State hosts the top passer in the MAC in Noah Kim in the only game in the conference that’s played on Saturday. Kim’s 226 YPG leads the league. The Cardinals haven’t been great at defending the pass and are allowing 227.7 passing YPG.
That isn’t a good recipe for the Cardinals, but I think they can take advantage of EMU’s rush defense that is allowing 234 YPG, which is the worst mark in the FBS.
BSU QB Kiael Kelly can make plays with his legs, and I expect him to do so against the Eagles. He has 470 rushing yards and five TDs this year. Running the ball effectively will also keep Kim and EMU’s offense off the field.
The Cardinals are 6-3 ATS this year including 4-0 at home. EMU is 2-3 ATS on the road.
Jacksonville State (+3, +140) vs. Kennesaw State
This has the makings of being the best game in Conference USA this season, and the Gamecocks might have the best player in the league in running back Cam Cook. I always believe the best players step up in the biggest moments, and I think Cook fits that bill.
A win here will put either team in the driver’s seat in the league and could nearly lock up a spot in the conference title game with two weeks remaining.
Cook leads the country in rushing yards (1129) and yards per game (131). I don’t know if Kennesaw State will be able to stop him, but they could limit him. The Owls are allowing 148 rushing YPG.
The last time these teams met in Jacksonville was in 2022, and it went to overtime. I could see that happening again here and the game being decided on the final possession.
KSU is 3-2 ATS as a favorite and JSU is 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
New Mexico State (+40, +4500) vs. Tennessee
Forty points is a wide margin for a win this late in the season, regardless of the quality of opponent. The Aggies have lost four in a row, but three were one-possession games. One was in OT and two were by a field goal.
I think the 25th-ranked Volunteers might already be looking ahead to their Week 14 matchup against Vanderbilt which could lead to them taking a few plays off here and there, and perhaps NMSU can take advantage.
Since 2016, the Aggies are 5-5 ATS against SEC opponents.
