A pair of fumbles and a missed field goal in the fourth quarter were costly for Marshall in last week’s loss to App State.
The Mountaineers managed to take advantage to outlast the Thundering Herd for a 26-24 victory in last week’s Sun Belt Game of the Week. Both teams moved to 5-6 overall.
The winner of this week’s game will clinch the Sun Belt West.
Sun Belt Championship Game Scenarios
It’s pretty simple: the winner of Troy and Southern Miss will earn a berth in the Sun Belt title game. The winner will travel to Harrisonburg, Virginia, to take the field against James Madison, which already locked up a spot and secured home-field advantage. The Dukes are 10-1 overall, 7-0 in conference play, and host Coastal Carolina on Saturday.
Entering the week, the Sun Belt was the only league in the FBS where a team had already earned a spot in the conference title game. It’s also the only league in the FBS that still recognizes divisions.
On Tuesday night, Western Michigan clinched a spot in the MAC Championship.
How To Watch Troy-Southern Miss
The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday and will air on ESPN+.
Troy-Southern Miss Spread & Betting Odds
Southern Miss is a 6.5-point college football betting odds favorite over Troy, as of this writing. The Over/Under is at 50.5.
Troy-Southern Miss Coaches & Records
TROY: Gerad Parker (11-18 overall, 11-12 at Troy)
USM: Charles Huff (39-24 overall, 7-4 at USM)
Last meeting: Troy won 52-20 last year at home. The Trojans have won four consecutive games in this series.
Troy Preview
November hasn’t been kind to the Trojans. Entering the month, Troy was 6-2 overall and 4-0 in conference play but has since gone 1-2 with its only victory coming unconvincingly over a 1-10 Georgia State squad last week.
One of the Trojans’ issues has been that they’ve hardly been able to get going offensively, especially compared to what they were capable of earlier in the season. A big reason why is injuries among the offensive line.
In their last three games, the Trojans averaged 249.3 yards per game. Things got better against GSU, but they still struggled on the ground, averaging only 1.9 yards per carry. In its last three outings, Troy rushed for a combined 109 yards and averaged 1.1 YPC.
Southern Miss’ rush defense isn’t great and is allowing 180 YPG, so perhaps the Trojans can get its ground game back on track this week.
The good news for Troy’s offense, though, is that it got starting quarterback Goose Crowder back two weeks ago from a shoulder injury. He had been out since leaving early in Week 3. He passed for 361 yards and four touchdowns against Georgia State.
Wide receiver DJ Epps snagged two of those TDs and finished with 103 yards on eight receptions. He has 390 yards and five scores on the season. Tray Taylor leads the team with 459 receiving yards to go with three TDs.
While Troy’s offense has been rocky, the defense has remained reliable for most of the season. The Trojans have only given up more than 28 points twice and are allowing 24.5 points and 384.5 yards per game.
Linebacker Jordan Stringer leads the team with 97 total tackles and 10 tackles for loss. Devin Lafayette has registered 92 total tackles.
Southern Miss Preview
Much like Troy, things haven’t been great for Southern Miss recently. The Golden Eagles were 7-2 and 5-0 in Sun Belt play before dropping their last two games to Texas State and South Alabama. At one point, USM trailed the Jaguars 35-7.
Regardless, USM is in position to win a league championship, which is something not many anticipated in Huff’s first season.
Uncharacteristically, the Golden Eagles failed to force any turnovers in their recent two losses. They’ve been one of the best teams in the FBS this season at creating takeaways and are tied for second in the country with 25. Their 20 interceptions are tied with Notre Dame for the most.
Ten different players have snared an interception for USM, and cornerback Josh Moten leads that group with five.
USM’s defense has been a little more vulnerable recently than it has been for most of the season and is allowing 41.5 PPG during its two-game losing skid. For the season, it is allowing 27.4 PPG and 400 YPG.
QB Braylon Braxton missed the game against Texas State because of an injury but was back last week and passed for a season-high 400 yards and three TDs, despite the loss. He leads the Sun Belt with 258.7 yards per game and 22 TDs.
Wideout Elijah Metcalf leads the team with 615 yards and 46 receptions while Jeffrey Pittman is USM’s leading rusher with 589 yards and eight TDs. The Golden Eagles are averaging 30.9 points and 412.8 yards per contest.
Troy-Southern Miss Prediction
I predict Southern Miss wins and covers the spread.
Ultimately, I just think Southern Miss is the better team here, especially with the way Troy has played in the last month. I think the Trojans’ one-dimensional offense will play right into the hands of USM’s defense.
Huff and many of his players won the Sun Belt while at Marshall last year, and I think that experience will be key with what’s at stake this week.
