June is one of the most exciting times of the year for D1 baseball fans as the road to the College World Series begins in earnest.
Just as we have in other sports (most notably, in D2), we're breaking out our BRacketology Powered by BennettRank to project the 64 teams who will square off for the right to travel to Omaha, Neb. for the College World Series next month.
The field of 64 consists of the 31 conference champions and 33 at-large bids. For the automatic qualifiers, we took the best BennettRank in each conference and, for the purposes of this exercise, gave those teams the automatic bid from each league. We then took the top 33 BennettRanks of the remaining pool of at-large teams and ranked them in order (all BennettRanks and records as of May 16).
| PROJECTED AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS* | PROJECTED AT-LARGE QUALIFIERS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BR | TEAM | CONFERENCE | RECORD | BR | TEAM | CONFERENCE | RECORD |
| 1 | Louisville | ACC | 42-10 | 3 | Texas A&M | SEC | 39-11 |
| 2 | Florida | SEC | 43-9 | 4 | Miami (Fla.) | ACC | 39-9 |
| 5 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 34-14 | 6 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 37-15 |
| 11 | Cal State-Fullerton | Big West | 32-17 | 7 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 38-13 |
| 15 | Cal-Berkeley | Pac 12 | 28-18 | 8 | UNC-Chapel Hill | ACC | 32-19 |
| 16 | Coastal Carolina | Big South | 34-14 | 9 | Mississippi State | SEC | 37-14-1 |
| 18 | Brigham Young | West Coast | 34-14 | 10 | Mississippi | SEC | 39-13 |
| 19 | UNC-Wilmington | Colonial | 35-13 | 12 | Florida State | ACC | 33-17 |
| 20 | Southern Mississippi | Conference USA | 36-15 | 13 | Louisiana State | SEC | 36-16 |
| 25 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 33-15 | 14 | North Carolina State | ACC | 32-17 |
| 27 | Dallas Baptist | Missouri Valley | 34-16 | 17 | South Carolina | SEC | 38-13 |
| 31 | Tulane | American | 35-15 | 21 | Arizona | Pac 12 | 32-18 |
| 34 | Southeast Louisiana | Southland | 36-15 | 22 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 32-17 |
| 35 | Wright State | Horizon | 38-14 | 23 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 33-18 |
| 36 | Southeast Missouri | Ohio Valley | 34-16 | 24 | Oregon State | Pac 12 | 30-18 |
| 37 | Louisiana-Lafayette | Southland | 36-15 | 26 | Virginia | ACC | 33-18 |
| 49 | Kent State | MAC | 39-11 | 28 | Clemson | ACC | 34-18 |
| 50 | North Florida | Atlantic Sun | 34-17 | 29 | Michigan | Big Ten | 34-16 |
| 57 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 35-18 | 30 | Stanford | Pac 12 | 25-21 |
| 60 | Bryant | Northeast | 39-10 | 32 | Florida Atlantic | Conference USA | 34-15 |
| 75 | UNC-Greensboro | Southern | 36-17 | 33 | Gonzaga | West Coast | 30-15 |
| 79 | Seattle | WAC | 33-18 | 38 | Arizona State | Pac 12 | 31-17 |
| 88 | Creighton | Big East | 33-13 | 39 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 35-16-1 |
| 98 | Oral Roberts | Summit | 32-16 | 40 | Oregon | Pac 12 | 24-22 |
| 100 | Hartford | American East | 33-14 | 41 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 26-24-1 |
| 123 | St. Joseph’s (Pa.) | Atlantic 10 | 28-19 | 42 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 37-16 |
| 148 | Navy | Patriot | 40-13-1 | 43 | Rice | Conference USA | 32-16 |
| 154 | Florida A&M | MEAC | 30-19 | 44 | Washington | Pac 12 | 28-18 |
| 163 | Princeton** | Ivy | 24-19 | 45 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 33-15 |
| 166 | Alabama State | SWAC | 34-15 | 46 | Duke | ACC | 31-21 |
| 194 | Canisius | MAAC | 27-25 | 47 | Tennessee | SEC | 26-26 |
|
* The Big West, Ivy League and Pac 12 do not |
48 | Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 34-16 | |||
| ** Clinched Regular Season Title/AQ Bid | 51 | Wake Forest | ACC | 31-20 | |||
Now that we know the teams who are projected to make the field, we rank them from #1 through #64 as follows:
| SEED | BR/TEAM | SEED | BR/TEAM | SEED | BR/TEAM | SEED | BR/TEAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BR-1 Louisville | 17 | BR-17 South Carolina | 33 | BR-33 Gonzaga | 49 | BR-49 Kent State |
| 2 | BR-2 Florida | 18 | BR-18 Brigham Young | 34 | BR-34 SE Louisiana | 50 | BR-50 North Florida |
| 3 | BR-3 Texas A&M | 19 | BR-19 UNC Wilmington | 35 | BR-35 Wright State | 51 | BR-51 Wake Forest |
| 4 | BR-4 Miami (Fla.) | 20 | BR-20 Southern Miss. | 36 | BR-36 SE Missouri | 52 | BR-57 Fresno State |
| 5 | BR-5 Texas Christian | 21 | BR-21 Arizona | 37 | BR-37 La.-Lafayette | 53 | BR-60 Bryant |
| 6 | BR-6 Vanderbilt | 22 | BR-22 Oklahoma State | 38 | BR-38 Arizona State | 54 | BR-75 UNC-Greensboro |
| 7 | BR-7 Texas Tech | 23 | BR-23 Georgia Tech | 39 | BR-39 Ohio State | 55 | BR-79 Seattle |
| 8 | BR-8 UNC-Chapel Hill | 24 | BR-24 Oregon State | 40 | BR-40 Oregon | 56 | BR-88 Creighton |
| 9 | BR-9 Mississippi State | 25 | BR-25 Minnesota | 41 | BR-41 Oklahoma | 57 | BR-98 Oral Roberts |
| 10 | BR-10 Mississippi | 26 | BR-26 Virginia | 42 | BR-42 South Alabama | 58 | BR-100 Hartford |
| 11 | BR-11 Cal St.-Fullerton | 27 | BR-27 Dallas Baptist | 43 | BR-43 Rice | 59 | BR-123 St. Joseph's |
| 12 | BR-12 Florida State | 28 | BR-28 Clemson | 44 | BR-44 Washington | 60 | BR-148 Navy |
| 13 | BR-13 Louisiana State | 29 | BR-29 Michigan | 45 | BR-45 Michigan State | 61 | BR-154 Florida A&M |
| 14 | BR-14 N.C. State | 30 | BR-30 Stanford | 46 | BR-46 Duke | 62 | BR-163 Princeton |
| 15 | BR-15 Cal-Berkeley | 31 | BR-31 Tulane | 47 | BR-47 Tennessee | 63 | BR-166 Alabama State |
| 16 | BR-16 Coastal Carolina | 32 | BR-32 Florida Atlantic | 48 | BR-48 Louisiana Tech | 64 | BR-194 Canisius |
From this listing, the NCAA Division I Baseball Committee will seed the top 16 teams and create a regional pod of four-teams to be hosted by each regional top seed. In D1 baseball, there is a round of 16 regional sites with the winners of each regional assigned to eight "super regional" pods.
An "s-curve" will be used to place each of the 64 teams in to a specific regional based on their ranking (ie. the #1 overall seed will face the #64 overall seed, etc.). This essentially pairs the top seeds from each region into potential Super Regional pairings (ie. #1 seed vs. #16 seed; #2 seed vs. #15 seed, etc.).
In placing the teams, however, the committee will not place teams from the same conference in the same regional. In addition, the committee will avoid having the top seeds from each regional who are in the same conference paired up to potentially face each other in the super regionals.
Another consideration is geography. While the committee will assign teams to regionals using "the closest possible geographic consideration," for the purposes of our exercise, we tossed that out the window.
With all that out of the way, here is how BennettRank projects the 2016 D1 baseball tournament field:
| REGIONAL | #1 SEED | #4 SEED | #2 SEED | #3 SEED |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Louisville, Ky.) | Louisville | Canisius | Florida Atlantic | Gonzaga |
| 16 (Conway, S.C.) | Coastal Carolina | Kent State | South Carolina | Louisiana Tech |
| 8 (Chapel Hill, N.C.) | UNC-Chapel Hill | Oral Roberts | Oregon | Minnesota |
| 9 (Starkville, Miss.) | Mississippi State | Creighton | Oklahoma | Oregon State |
| 5 (Fort Worth, Texas) | Texas Christian | Navy | Clemson | Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 12 (Talahassee, Fla.) | Florida State | Bryant | Oklahoma State* | Washington |
| 4 (College Station, Texas) | Texas A&M | Florida A&M | Michigan | Southeast Missouri |
| 13 (Raleigh, N.C.) | North Carolina State | Fresno State | Michigan State | Southern Mississippi |
| 3 (Coral Gables, Fla.) | Miami (Fla.) | Princeton | Stanford | Wright State |
| 14 (Baton Rouge, La.) | Louisiana State | North Florida* | UNC-Wilmington | Duke |
| 6 (Nashville, Tenn.) | Vanderbilt | St. Joseph's | Dallas Baptist | Arizona State |
| 11 (Fullerton, Calif.) | Cal State-Fullerton | UNC-Greensboro | Arizona* | Rice |
| 7 (Lubbock, Texas) | Texas Tech | Hartford | Virginia | Ohio State |
| 10 (Oxford, Miss.) | Mississippi | Seattle | Georgia Tech | South Alabama |
| 2 (Gainesville, Fla.) | Florida | Alabama State | Southeastern Louisiana | Tulane |
| 15 (Berkeley, Calif.) | California-Berkeley | Wake Forest* | Tennessee | Brigham Young |
From our original projections, we made three changes to the projected seedings:
- We swapped Texas A&M and Miami at the #3 and #4 seeds to avoid a potential super regional matchup with #13 overall seed N.C. State and #14 overall seed LSU.
- We swapped spots with Arizona and Oklahoma State as Regional 12 (Florida State) would’ve had two teams from the Pac 12 (Arizona and Washington) in the same regional.
- We flipped North Florida and Wake Forest to avoid placing two ACC teams (Duke and Wake Forest) in Regional 13 (LSU).
If nothing else, we've presented a snapshot of how the D1 baseball tournament field looks based on BennettRank projections. With 28 conference tournaments to be played over the next week and a half, a lot can change between now and Monday, June 1, when the field of 64 will be announced on ESPNU at 12:00 p.m. Eastern.
