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D1 Baseball BRacketology Powered by BennettRank: May 19

HERO Sports by HERO Sports
May 19, 2016
0

June is one of the most exciting times of the year for D1 baseball fans as the road to the College World Series begins in earnest.

Just as we have in other sports (most notably, in D2), we're breaking out our BRacketology Powered by BennettRank to project the 64 teams who will square off for the right to travel to Omaha, Neb. for the College World Series next month.

The field of 64 consists of the 31 conference champions and 33 at-large bids. For the automatic qualifiers, we took the best BennettRank in each conference and, for the purposes of this exercise, gave those teams the automatic bid from each league. We then took the top 33 BennettRanks of the remaining pool of at-large teams and ranked them in order (all BennettRanks and records as of May 16).

PROJECTED FIELD OF 64 (As of May 19)
PROJECTED AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS* PROJECTED AT-LARGE QUALIFIERS
BR TEAM CONFERENCE RECORD BR TEAM CONFERENCE RECORD
1 Louisville ACC 42-10 3 Texas A&M SEC 39-11
2 Florida SEC 43-9 4 Miami (Fla.) ACC 39-9
5 Texas Christian Big 12 34-14 6 Vanderbilt SEC 37-15
11 Cal State-Fullerton Big West 32-17 7 Texas Tech Big 12 38-13
15 Cal-Berkeley Pac 12 28-18 8 UNC-Chapel Hill ACC 32-19
16 Coastal Carolina Big South 34-14 9 Mississippi State SEC 37-14-1
18 Brigham Young West Coast 34-14 10 Mississippi SEC 39-13
19 UNC-Wilmington Colonial 35-13 12 Florida State ACC 33-17
20 Southern Mississippi Conference USA 36-15 13 Louisiana State SEC 36-16
25 Minnesota Big Ten 33-15 14 North Carolina State ACC 32-17
27 Dallas Baptist Missouri Valley 34-16 17 South Carolina SEC 38-13
31 Tulane American 35-15 21 Arizona Pac 12 32-18
34 Southeast Louisiana Southland 36-15 22 Oklahoma State Big 12 32-17
35 Wright State Horizon 38-14 23 Georgia Tech ACC 33-18
36 Southeast Missouri Ohio Valley 34-16 24 Oregon State Pac 12 30-18
37 Louisiana-Lafayette Southland 36-15 26 Virginia ACC 33-18
49 Kent State MAC 39-11 28 Clemson ACC 34-18
50 North Florida Atlantic Sun 34-17 29 Michigan Big Ten 34-16
57 Fresno State Mountain West 35-18 30 Stanford Pac 12 25-21
60 Bryant Northeast 39-10 32 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 34-15
75 UNC-Greensboro Southern 36-17 33 Gonzaga West Coast 30-15
79 Seattle WAC 33-18 38 Arizona State Pac 12 31-17
88 Creighton Big East 33-13 39 Ohio State Big Ten 35-16-1
98 Oral Roberts Summit 32-16 40 Oregon Pac 12 24-22
100 Hartford American East 33-14 41 Oklahoma Big 12 26-24-1
123 St. Joseph’s (Pa.) Atlantic 10 28-19 42 South Alabama Sun Belt 37-16
148 Navy Patriot 40-13-1 43 Rice Conference USA 32-16
154 Florida A&M MEAC 30-19 44 Washington Pac 12 28-18
163 Princeton** Ivy 24-19 45 Michigan State Big Ten 33-15
166 Alabama State SWAC 34-15 46 Duke ACC 31-21
194 Canisius MAAC 27-25 47 Tennessee SEC 26-26

* The Big West, Ivy League and Pac 12 do not
sponsor postseason tournaments.

48 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 34-16
** Clinched Regular Season Title/AQ Bid 51 Wake Forest ACC 31-20

Now that we know the teams who are projected to make the field, we rank them from #1 through #64 as follows:

FIELD OF 64 OVERALL SEEDS
SEED BR/TEAM SEED BR/TEAM SEED BR/TEAM SEED BR/TEAM
1 BR-1 Louisville 17 BR-17 South Carolina 33 BR-33 Gonzaga 49 BR-49 Kent State
2 BR-2 Florida 18 BR-18 Brigham Young 34 BR-34 SE Louisiana 50 BR-50 North Florida
3 BR-3 Texas A&M 19 BR-19 UNC Wilmington 35 BR-35 Wright State 51 BR-51 Wake Forest
4 BR-4 Miami (Fla.) 20 BR-20 Southern Miss. 36 BR-36 SE Missouri 52 BR-57 Fresno State
5 BR-5 Texas Christian 21 BR-21 Arizona 37 BR-37 La.-Lafayette 53 BR-60 Bryant
6 BR-6 Vanderbilt 22 BR-22 Oklahoma State 38 BR-38 Arizona State 54 BR-75 UNC-Greensboro
7 BR-7 Texas Tech 23 BR-23 Georgia Tech 39 BR-39 Ohio State 55 BR-79 Seattle
8 BR-8 UNC-Chapel Hill 24 BR-24 Oregon State 40 BR-40 Oregon 56 BR-88 Creighton
9 BR-9 Mississippi State 25 BR-25 Minnesota 41 BR-41 Oklahoma 57 BR-98 Oral Roberts
10 BR-10 Mississippi 26 BR-26 Virginia 42 BR-42 South Alabama 58 BR-100 Hartford
11 BR-11 Cal St.-Fullerton 27 BR-27 Dallas Baptist 43 BR-43 Rice 59 BR-123 St. Joseph's
12 BR-12 Florida State 28 BR-28 Clemson 44 BR-44 Washington 60 BR-148 Navy
13 BR-13 Louisiana State 29 BR-29 Michigan 45 BR-45 Michigan State 61 BR-154 Florida A&M
14 BR-14 N.C. State 30 BR-30 Stanford 46 BR-46 Duke 62 BR-163 Princeton
15 BR-15 Cal-Berkeley 31 BR-31 Tulane 47 BR-47 Tennessee 63 BR-166 Alabama State
16 BR-16 Coastal Carolina 32 BR-32 Florida Atlantic 48 BR-48 Louisiana Tech 64 BR-194 Canisius

From this listing, the NCAA Division I Baseball Committee will seed the top 16 teams and create a regional pod of four-teams to be hosted by each regional top seed. In D1 baseball, there is a round of 16 regional sites with the winners of each regional assigned to eight "super regional" pods.

An "s-curve" will be used to place each of the 64 teams in to a specific regional based on their ranking (ie. the #1 overall seed will face the #64 overall seed, etc.). This essentially pairs the top seeds from each region into potential Super Regional pairings (ie. #1 seed vs. #16 seed; #2 seed vs. #15 seed, etc.).

In placing the teams, however, the committee will not place teams from the same conference in the same regional. In addition, the committee will avoid having the top seeds from each regional who are in the same conference paired up to potentially face each other in the super regionals.

Another consideration is geography. While the committee will assign teams to regionals using "the closest possible geographic consideration," for the purposes of our exercise, we tossed that out the window.

With all that out of the way, here is how BennettRank projects the 2016 D1 baseball tournament field:

PROJECTED REGIONAL PAIRINGS
REGIONAL #1 SEED #4 SEED #2 SEED #3 SEED
1 (Louisville, Ky.) Louisville Canisius Florida Atlantic Gonzaga
16 (Conway, S.C.) Coastal Carolina Kent State South Carolina Louisiana Tech
8 (Chapel Hill, N.C.) UNC-Chapel Hill Oral Roberts Oregon Minnesota
9 (Starkville, Miss.) Mississippi State Creighton Oklahoma Oregon State
5 (Fort Worth, Texas) Texas Christian Navy Clemson Louisiana-Lafayette
12 (Talahassee, Fla.) Florida State Bryant Oklahoma State* Washington
4 (College Station, Texas) Texas A&M Florida A&M Michigan Southeast Missouri
13 (Raleigh, N.C.) North Carolina State Fresno State Michigan State Southern Mississippi
3 (Coral Gables, Fla.) Miami (Fla.) Princeton Stanford Wright State
14 (Baton Rouge, La.) Louisiana State North Florida* UNC-Wilmington Duke
6 (Nashville, Tenn.) Vanderbilt St. Joseph's Dallas Baptist Arizona State
11 (Fullerton, Calif.) Cal State-Fullerton UNC-Greensboro Arizona* Rice
7 (Lubbock, Texas) Texas Tech Hartford Virginia Ohio State
10 (Oxford, Miss.) Mississippi Seattle Georgia Tech South Alabama
2 (Gainesville, Fla.) Florida Alabama State Southeastern Louisiana Tulane
15 (Berkeley, Calif.) California-Berkeley Wake Forest* Tennessee Brigham Young

From our original projections, we made three changes to the projected seedings:

  1. We swapped Texas A&M and Miami at the #3 and #4 seeds to avoid a potential super regional matchup with #13 overall seed N.C. State and #14 overall seed LSU.
  2. We swapped spots with Arizona and Oklahoma State as Regional 12 (Florida State) would’ve had two teams from the Pac 12 (Arizona and Washington) in the same regional.
  3. We flipped North Florida and Wake Forest to avoid placing two ACC teams (Duke and Wake Forest) in Regional 13 (LSU).

If nothing else, we've presented a snapshot of how the D1 baseball tournament field looks based on BennettRank projections. With 28 conference tournaments to be played over the next week and a half, a lot can change between now and Monday, June 1, when the field of 64 will be announced on ESPNU at 12:00 p.m. Eastern.

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