D1 Baseball BRacketology: Tournament Predictions and Analysis Powered by BennettRank

We began the 2016 D1 Baseball season with 300 teams chasing a dream to hoist the national championship trophy in Omaha. We are now down to the final 64 teams as Regional play begins at 16 sites this Friday.

Before we apply our BRacketology Powered by BennettRank to each of the 16 regions, let’s take a look at how the bracket would look if teams were seeded via BennettRank instead of the formulas used by the NCAA.

For more coverage of D1 baseball tournament, check out Jesse Borek’s take on the snubs and surprises and the five hottest teams in the field . (While there is some analysis in this article, this is more of a BRacketology and prediction post.)

Use your arrow keys or the arrow buttons above and below to navigate the slideshow.

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BennettRank Projected Field vs. NCAA Selections

Let’s start with the 64 teams selected for the tournament - ranked from highest RPI to lowest - and the 64 teams BennettRank projected to make the cut. Both lists include automatic qualifiers from each of the 31 conferences. (All BennettRanks as of May 31; RPI rankings as of May 29. Automatic qualifiers highlighted in boldface.)

BENNETTRANK PROJECTED FIELD OF 64 ACTUAL FIELD OF 64 (Ranked by RPI) BR TEAM CONF. RECORD RPI RANK BR TEAM CONF. RECORD RPI 1 Louisville ACC 47-12 2 1 5 Florida SEC 47-13 1 2 Texas A&M SEC 48-14 4 2 1 Louisville ACC 47-12 2 3 TCU BIG 12 42-15 16 3 4 Miami (FL) ACC 45-11 3 4 Miami (FL) ACC 45-11 3 4 2 Texas A&M SEC 48-14 4 5 Florida SEC 47-13 1 5 11 Mississippi SEC 43-18 5 6 Vanderbilt SEC 43-18 9 6 18 Clemson ACC 42-18 6 7 Texas Tech BIG 12 41-16 14 7 9 LSU SEC 42-16 7 8 Mississippi State SEC 41-16-1 11 8 19 South Carolina SEC 42-16 8 9 Louisiana State SEC 42-16 7 9 6 Vanderbilt SEC 43-18 9 10 UNC-Chapel Hill ACC 34-21 19 10 15 NC State ACC 35-20 10 11 Mississippi SEC 43-18 5 11 8 Mississippi State SEC 41-16-1 11 12 Florida State ACC 37-20 13 12 14 Coastal Carolina BIG SOUTH 44-15 12 13 California-Berkeley PAC 12 32-21 68 13 12 Florida State ACC 37-20 13 14 Coastal Carolina BIG SOUTH 44-15 12 14 7 Texas Tech BIG 12 41-16 14 15 North Carolina State ACC 35-20 10 15 22 Louisiana-Lafayette SUN BELT 41-19 15 16 Cal State-Fullerton BIG WEST 35-21 42 16 3 TCU BIG 12 42-15 16 17 Arizona PAC 12 38-20 21 17 25 Virginia ACC 37-20 17 18 Clemson ACC 42-18 6 18 23 Southern Mississippi C-USA 40-18 18 19 South Carolina SEC 42-16 8 19 27 Georgia Tech ACC 36-23 20 20 Dallas Baptist MVC 41-17 22 20 17 Arizona PAC 12 38-20 21 21 Oregon State PAC 12 35-19 44 21 20 Dallas Baptist MVC 41-17 22 22 Louisiana-Lafayette SUN BELT 41-19 15 22 58 UC-Santa Barbara BIG WEST 37-18-1 23 23 Southern Mississippi C-USA 40-18 18 23 67 Rice C-USA 35-22 24 24 Oklahoma State BIG 12 36-20 32 24 63 Wake Forest ACC 34-25 25 25 Virginia ACC 37-20 17 25 60 Duke ACC 33-22 26 26 Brigham Young WCC 37-17 54 26 33 Florida Atlantic C-USA 35-22 27 27 Georgia Tech ACC 36-23 20 27 46 Bryant NEC 47-10 28 28 Stanford PAC 12 31-23 74 28 32 Tulane AAC 39-19 29 29 Ohio State BIG TEN 43-18-1 35 29 45 Gonzaga BIG WEST 35-19 30 30 UNC-Wilmington CAA 39-17 33 30 36 Louisiana Tech C-USA 40-18 31 31 Wright State HORIZON 44-15 41 31 24 Oklahoma State BIG 12 36-20 32 32 Tulane AAC 39-19 29 32 30 UNC-Wilmington CAA 39-17 33 33 Florida Atlantic C-USA 35-22 27 33 57 Sam Houston State SOUTHLAND 41-20 34 34 Minnesota BIG TEN 34-20 51 34 29 Ohio State BIG TEN 43-18-1 35 35 Southeast Missouri OVC 39-19 45 35 66 East Carolina AAC 34-21-1 36 36 Louisiana Tech C-USA 40-18 31 36 47 Michigan BIG TEN 36-21 38 37 Oregon PAC 12 29-26 85 37 65 Boston College ACC 31-20 39 38 Southeastern Louisiana SUN BELT 39-19 40 38 38 Southeastern Louisiana SUN BELT 39-19 40 39 Missouri State MVC 38-21 87 39 31 Wright State HORIZON 44-15 41 40 Oklahoma BIG 12 30-27-1 69 40 16 Cal State-Fullerton BIG WEST 35-21 42 42 Long Beach State BIG WEST 36-20 53 41 54 Arizona State PAC 12 34-21 43 43 West Virginia BIG 12 36-22 62 42 35 Southeast Missouri MVC 39-19 45 44 St. Mary's (CA) WCC 33-23 57 43 52 Nebraska BIG TEN 37-21 48 45 Gonzaga WCC 35-19 30 44 49 New Mexico MWC 38-21 49 46 Bryant NEC 47-10 28 45 59 South Alabama SUN BELT 40-20 50 48 Iowa BIG TEN 30-26 72 46 50 Connecticut AAC 37-23 52 49 New Mexico MWC 38-21 49 47 42 Long Beach State BIG WEST 36-20 53 50 Connecticut AAC 37-23 52 48 55 Washington PAC 12 32-21 55 57 Sam Houston State SOUTHLAND 41-20 34 49 44 St. Mary's (CA) BIG WEST 33-23 57 80 Utah PAC 12 25-27 92 50 97 Oral Roberts SUMMIT 38-19 59 97 Oral Roberts SUMMIT 38-19 59 51 126 Xavier BIG EAST 30-28 78 112 Western Carolina SOUTHERN 30-29 104 52 80 Utah PAC 12 25-27 92 117 Utah Valley WAC 37-21 130 53 150 William & Mary CAA 29-29 100 126 Xavier BIG EAST 30-28 78 54 112 Western Carolina SOUTHERN 30-29 104 147 Navy PATRIOT 42-14-1 145 55 162 Princeton IVY 24-19 105 150 William & Mary CAA 29-29 100 56 152 Binghamton AEC 30-23 109 152 Binghamton AEC 30-23 109 57 170 Rhode Island A-10 30-25 113 160 Alabama State SWAC 38-15 158 58 117 Utah Valley WAC 37-21 130 162 Princeton IVY 24-19 105 59 147 Navy PATRIOT 42-14-1 145 163 Stetson A-SUN 29-29 150 60 163 Stetson A-SUN 29-29 150 170 Rhode Island A-10 30-25 113 61 160 Alabama State SWAC 38-15 158 202 Fairfield MAAC 32-24 182 62 205 Bethune-Cookman MEAC 29-25 162 205 Bethune-Cookman MEAC 29-25 162 63 202 Fairfield MAAC 32-24 182 235 Western Michigan MAC 22-32 217 64 235 Western Michigan MAC 22-32 217

MY FIVE TAKEAWAYS

1. Why Conference Play Matters

The biggest caveat about BennettRank is that the rankings take into account a team’s overall body of work, and may not necessarily factor in how good or bad a team is performing within it’s own league.

One of the most glaring differences between the BennettRank projections and the actual tournament field is the ranking of California-Berkeley. According to BennettRank projections, the Golden Bears were a top 16 team (BR-13) and, if those projections were used to fill out the field, would’ve been one of the regional site hosts.

Yet, Cal-Berkeley wasn’t even in the top 64 in RPI, let alone the top 16 (RPI: 68). Their sub-.500 record in Pac-12 play (14-16) wasn't exactly the best way to make a case for an NCAA playoff bid.

A couple other Pac-12 teams with huge disparities between BennettRank and RPI are Stanford (BR-28, RPI: 74) and Oregon (BR-37, RPI: 85). Much like Cal-Berkeley, these two teams also struggled (relatively speaking) in conference play; the Cardinal finished 15-15 in Pac-12 play while Oregon went 14-16.

Utah, despite having the lowest BennettRank and RPI among the Power Five teams in the field (BR-80, RPI: 92) and a sub-.500 overall record (25-27), earned the automatic bid from the Pac-12 with a 19-11 conference record, capped off by a best-of-three series win over Washington last weekend (including a 21-7 win on Sunday).

The biggest example of how struggles within league play can leave you on the outside looking is comes from the ACC, where North Carolina-Chapel Hill, ranked in the top 20 in both BennettRank (BR-10) and RPI (19), didn’t make the field. Snub, you say? I say no.

In most other conferences, the Tar Heels’ resume would be strong enough to earn an at-large bid. But in the highly competitive ACC, Carolina didn’t even make the ten-team field for the ACC tournament. And, all ten teams who earned a spot in Durham for the ACC tourney are also in the NCAA field.

The moral of the story in Berkeley, Chapel Hill, Eugene and Palo Alto? Don’t ride the struggle bus during conference play.

2. West Virginia Biggest Snub of the Field

It’s been 21 years since West Virginia has even made the NCAA baseball tournament. And this seemed like the year for the Mountaineers to break that slide.

The Mountaineers reached the Big 12 championship game in Oklahoma City, where they rallied from an eight-run deficit to take a late lead, only to fall to TCU in extra innings. And, despite the fact that WVU would’ve been in the field using the BennettRank rankings (BR-43), a relatively weak RPI (62) is probably the biggest reason that there’s no celebration in Morgantown.

Like WVU, Oklahoma was another team which BennettRank projected into the field as an at-large team (BR-40), but fell victim to that dreaded RPI (69) in being left out of the field.

But, if there’s any consolation for the Mountaineers, 2017 will probably be the year the drought ends. After all, there’s a certain Major League Baseball franchise located about an hour and a half north on Interstate 79 which recently snapped a 21-year playoff drought in dramatic fashion not too long ago (and whose short-season Class A affiliate in the New York-Penn league just happens to share Monongalia County Ballpark with WVU).

Do the Pittsburgh Pirates ring a bell?

3. The Most Dangerous Team in the Field: The Ohio State Buckeyes

Out of all the Power Five schools which made the cut, the one team that few would probably want to face at this stage would have to be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, who entered the Big Ten tournament field as the fourth-seed, had one of the biggest BennettRank jumps among Power Five schools this past week (from BR-42 to BR-29). Yes, it helped that regular season champion Minnesota lost twice in the opening rounds for an early exit. But, Ohio State’s path after their first of two wins over Michigan in their opening round contest was even more impressive.

After falling to eighth-seeded Iowa (BR-48, RPI: 72), the Buckeyes had to win four games via the consolation bracket in order to win the Big Ten title, including an elimination game win over “That Team Up North” (Michigan) and two wins over “That Other Team Up North” (Michigan State) before a rematch with Iowa in Sunday’s championship game.

That’s four wins in two days if you’re scoring at home.

Much to the relief of some bubble teams - including that aforementioned Team Up North - the Buckeyes took care of business, wrapping up their run with a 5-4 win over Iowa on Sunday to cap off an 18-4 stretch over their last 22 games since losing a three-game series to Illinois.

And, despite being placed in a regional with Louisville, one has to like the Scarlet and Gray’s chances in the most geographically-friendly regionals in the tourney (Ohio State opens the tourney with Wright State, which is located near Dayton, Ohio, while Louisville hosts Western Michigan).

4. Coastal Carolina Snubbed Because of ACC/SEC Dominance?

When you take a look at both the BennettRank and RPI raw numbers, one could’ve made a case for Coastal Carolina earning one of the top 16 overall seeds. A BennettRank of 14, an RPI of 12, and a Big South championship -- what more do you need, right?

Apparently, the NCAA committee had different thoughts when filling out the field.

When you look at the top 16 overall seeds, there is definitely an ACC/SEC flavor to it. The two Power Five conferences boast a combined 17 teams in the field of 64, including 13 of the top 16 seeds and seven of the top eight seeds (only Texas Tech, TCU and Louisiana-Lafayette broke the ACC/SEC stranglehold).

Should the Chanticleers have been seeded over a Louisiana-Lafayette team which had a lower BennettRank (22) and RPI (15)? That’s open to debate. What we do know is that ther

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