March Madness brings with it an assortment of, well, madness. I don’t think the phrase has as much to do with basketball as those watching the sport with all the zeal of a crazed toddler experiencing bubbles for the first time.
I only got into the whole fill out your bracket thing about four years ago, but since then the event has turned me into an obsessed fan; one who frantically searches for ways to put myself ahead of the pack.
My results haven’t gone far. Last year I got screwed when Michigan State — a team I had pegged to reach the championship — lost in the first round to Middle Tennessee in one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history.
Yeah, that’s my luck. And therein lies the key word to any successful bracket: luck. You must have a lot of it to make a bracket that outdoes all other brackets. Despite the tips, tricks and techniques I’ll reveal below, don’t get too carried away into thinking there’s some kind of perfect system to follow.
It is March Madness after all.
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TIP 1: CHOOSE A TEAM AND STICK WITH IT
There’s nothing wrong with selecting a favorite team and sticking to your guns. Last year Michigan State lost, but had the Spartans survived that stunning one-in-a-million upset they likely would’ve gone much, much farther in the tournament.
(On a side: think of the repercussions that single loss had on the entire tournament: Syracuse destroyed Middle Tennessee, then went on to beat Gonzaga and No. 1 seeded Virginia to reach the Final Four where it lost to North Carolina. A Spartan victory changes all of that. Amazing.)
TIP 2: DON’T OVER THINK UPSETS
Everyone loves a good upset. It’s what makes the tournament watchable year in and year out, even if the end result typically favors larger schools like North Carolina and Duke. Yet, don’t expect upsets. You’ll drive yourself crazy by over thinking this thing. If the bracket says Virginia v. Hampton, go with Virginia.
The top seed is there for a reason, unless it happened to sneak in thanks to an automatic bid because of winning a weak conference.
In that case …
TIP 3: DON’T RELY ON TOURNAMENT SEEDING
Look, if Duke is a top seed, as it is this year, you choose Duke. But in the case of, say, Dayton, don’t trust the seeding order. The Flyers are a No. 7 seed and face No. 10 Wichita State in Round 1. This is a trap game if there ever was one. Even Kenpom.com ranks Wichita significantly higher than the Wildcats.
The issue with the Shockers is their schedule was relatively soft. They faced just one Top 25 RPI team, Louisville, and lost 62-52 on Nov. 24; so, there wasn’t a huge sample size to rely upon.
Wichita is a much better team than its ranking suggests, while Dayton might be placed a tad too high on the totem pole.
There are a lot of these mismatches spread across the bracket this year — No. 10 Marquette v No. 7 South Carolina, for example. These are the sort of edges that can put you over the top.
TIP 4 — DON’T BET AGAINST THE TOP SEEDS
An interesting stat I procured from the Washington Post: top four teams are 128-0 in the first round since the tournament expanded to 64 teams. Upsets do occur, but the top teams are the ones typically standing when the music stops. Again, don’t over think this thing.
TIP 5: BUT DON’T RELY ON THE TOP SEEDS EITHER
According to an article published on ESPN in 2012:
Zero No. 1s is just as likely as three
Last year marked just the third time since seeding began in 1979 that the Final Four had no No. 1 seeds (1980, 2006, 2011). What might surprise you is that also happens to be the same number of times that exactly three of the four No. 1 seeds reached the national semifinals (1993, 1997, 1999). Only once have we had a Final Four with all four No. 1 seeds (2008), and in the three years since, we've had a total of three No. 1s in the national semis.
(That article is fascinating. Give it a look as it breaks down the No. 2 seed winners versus the No. 3 seeds, etc.)
TIP 6: LOOK AT THE STATS, BUT NOT TOO HARD
I’m a big fan of UCLA this year, but I’ll admit I’m hesitant to pick them to win the whole shebang, let alone reach the Final Four, mainly because they suck at defense. The Bruins need to outscore their opponents to win, and while that may seem like a “No Shit, Sherlock” statement it’s important to note that all the Bruins do well is score. They rank No. 1 in assists, sure, and 26th in rebounds, but rank 256th in points allowed and surrender 75.3 points per game.
For comparison’s sake, look at Villanova’s stats last year (courtesy of sports-reference.com) when it won the championship:
The team ranked among the top 10 in field goals, field goal percentage, 3-pointers made, free throw percentage, defensive rebounds, assists and points. But it doesn’t stop there. The Wildcats ranked 15th overall in points allowed per game (63.6) and fifth in turnovers produced (552).
Offensively, UCLA is all aces, but the team can’t slow opponents down on the other side of the court and defensively has just one stat — blocks — ranked higher than 32nd in the nation.
Then again, Duke wasn’t hailed as a defensive force when it won two years ago, nor was Connecticut before that. In fact, most teams that go on to win the NCAA Tournament typically rank higher offensively than defensively.
In an article published on NCAA.com way back in 2015, the writer, Brian Mull, observed:
“With the exception of Connecticut’s two recent title teams, every national champion of the last decade ranked in the top eight nationally in the adjusted offensive efficiency ratings at KenPom.com. Florida (2006-07), North Carolina (2008-09) and Duke (2009-10) led the nation in points scored per possession, adjusted for quality of opponent, site of game, and when the game was played with recent games receiving more weight …
… Kentucky in 2011-12 featured the top two picks in the upcoming draft, Anthony Davis, who projects as an NBA MVP candidate for the next decade, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, pegged as the Charlotte Hornets starting small forward prior to a season-ending shoulder injury. Both were excellent defenders. Scoring inside against the Wildcats’ long, athletic frontcourt was tough as a diner ribeye. They led the nation in effective field goal percentage defense (42.0 pct.), 2-point field goal defense (39.6) and block percentage (20.2).
The 2007-08 Kansas team, with future NBA pros Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers, led the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and did not have a statistical weakness.”
So, perhaps UCLA isn’t such a long shot after all. The team may suck defensively, but what it does on offense it does better than anyone else. Plus, the Bruins feature two players — Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf — projected to go in the Top 15 of the NBA Draft.
The only other team comparable to UCLA’s stats and personnel? Kentucky, which ranks 5th in points per game (86.1), 12th in rebounds (40.2) and 49th in assists (15.7), but surrenders 71.8 points per contest (167th in the league); and features two players — De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk — expected to go in the Top 10 of the NBA Draft.
Defense wins championships … just not in the NCAA apparently.
TIP 7: GO WITH YOUR GUT
As you’ve read above, there’s no one way to fill out a bracket properly. Perhaps the best advice I can give is to follow your instincts. Listen to the experts all you want, but you must realize is most of them are making predictions based on other expert’s predictions. It’d be nice to live in a world where sports analysts watched every single game, but that’s just not possible. And so, for most teams, experts must rely on word of mouth, quick recaps, or statistics that may or may not reflect a team’s true nature.
So, if you’re feeling good about a team, or an upset, then go for it. There’s nothing like opting for an expert’s take over your own personal instinct and finding out you were right.
TIP 8: FILL OUT MULTIPLE BRACKETS
To enjoy the tourney fully, make sure you take the time to go with more than one bracket. Try different tactics. For example, on one bracket aim for potential dark horses. On another, go with the top seeds. And don’t be afraid to shake things up.
Last year nearly all of my brackets were screwed because I chose one team on a majority of them. That was my ego getting in the way. As stated above, don’t be afraid to go with your instinct, but don’t be so presumptuous and expect that one instinct to prevail over simple logic – i.e., the more brackets you have, the better opportunity you have to win.
TIP 9 — DON’T RELY ON THE PAST
I hate it when experts throw out asinine stats that are more about past teams than present teams. I don’t care that Villanova won last year. This year’s team is different. New players, new techniques, etc.
Keep the past in the past. Focus on what this year’s crop of teams have done to determine your title winner.
TIP 10 — WATCH A LOT OF BASKETBALL
The best way to determine the best from the worst is to simply watch a lot of basketball. Yeah, that’s a simple suggestion, but it’s important to understand how a team functions on the court. On paper, a team like Kentucky can feature the top players in the nation, but if they’re not working in unison, or playing to their strengths, they’re not going to get very far.
As you watch the games focus on the adjustments the coaches make to control the flow of the game. Is a team multidimensional? Can it play inside-out and outside-in?
Or does it rely strictly on shooting? Or defense? In the NBA playoffs, teams are given seven games to tweak game plans to adjust to another team’s tactics, which is why the best teams tend to prevail.
In the NCAA tourney, a coach/team must be able to adjust on the fly, whether they’re prepared for it or not. For this reason, look for teams that can play different styles of ball.
This is one of the reasons I like Arizona so much this year: they are multifaceted, especially with Lauri Markkanen, a power forward who can shoot the three ball, or dominate inside. His presence alone spreads the defense, and opens lanes for Allonzo Trier and Rawle Atkins to penetrate.
Again, however, these tips are nothing without a lot of luck. What you need to focus on is putting yourself in the best position to succeed and let luck handle the rest. Most of your brackets will suck, and that’s ok. You only need one to win, right?
