No. 10 Stanford shocked No. 2 Kansas in the Second Round of the 2014 NCAA Tournament. The Cardinal, who beat No. 7 New Mexico State two days earlier, became the 22nd 10-seed to beat a 2-seed in the Second Round. Though another 10-over-2 upset hasn’t happened since then, 10-seeds still have a higher winning percentage vs. 2-seeds than 7-seeds.
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 10-seeds have an overall record of 99-156 (.388). Sixty-one of those wins have come against 2-seeds in the First Round (61-95, .391). Of those 61 winners, 22 have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen by beating a 2-seed (five more have advanced by beating a 15-seed).
That means 10-seeds have a slightly higher winning percentage vs. 2-seeds (.393) than they do vs. 7-seeds (.391). But it gets better, especially if you’re looking for a responsible Second Round upset pick. Also since 1985, 7-seeds have won only 29 percent of their games vs. 2-seeds (27-66), or 10 full points lower than 10-seeds vs. 2-seeds.
Here’s a look at this year’s 10-seeds, along with potential Second Round matchups with 2-seeds:
| 10-Seed | 7-Seed (1st Round) | (2-Seed) 2nd Round |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | Rhode Island | Duke |
| Providence | Texas A&M | North Carolina |
| Butler | Arkansas | Purdue |
| Texas | Nevada | Cincinnati |
