Let's get away from publicity stunts and back to what’s important previewing massive Week 12 games. Let’s use the opening odds from different betting sites to get an idea of for your survivor pools and then really break it down.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)
The 49ers had opened up as three-point home favorites against the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers and company will pack their bags and head to Frisco. And this game presents an interesting matchup.
The Niners look tired. Their early bye is starting to take its toll. The 49ers have struggled for three weeks straight and in two of those games, it was against the lowly Arizona Cardinals. They just barely squeaked out the win on October 31st and this weekend, they entered the 4th quarter two points down … it was a home scare that had San Fran fans nervous.
Most of their woes have come from the defensive side of the ball. And now they are most likely going to play the Packers without the help of Dee Ford. On top of that, George Kittle, Garoppolo’s leading TE is questionable.
On the flip side, the Packers got embarrassed two weeks ago by the Chargers. But they have had time to rest up and recoup. They are going to come into this one in San Francisco with a brand new chip on their shoulder and take it to the Niners.
The Packers should cover the +3 point spread in this one and maybe even win the game outright. I love Aaron Rodgers against a tired beat up defense.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots (-6.5)
The Patriots have bounced back from their loss to the Ravens and their defense went right back to its brick wall ways. They held the Eagles to just 10 points. Now they get their second NFC team in a row but this time up in Foxboro.
It was 64 degrees in Texas on Monday … it was 38 and raining in Foxboro. The Cowboys are going to go up and play in some chilly weather against the toughest defense in the league. The point spread opened with the Pats as 6.5 point favorites, but you can now find New England at -6.
When you look at overall offensive numbers, these teams stack up quite well against each other. America’s Team puts up 28.6 points per game, and the Patriots score 28.7. But on the road, the Cowboys drop almost two points, down to 27 per game, and the Pats play a few points better at home, averaging 31.25 in Gillette.
But the story here is the defenses. The Cowboys actually have a respectable road D that only allows home teams to score 20.4 points per game. But the Patriots have a brutal home D that allows just 11 points per game, which is No. 1 in the league. They all the second-fewest passing yards per game, and are also No. 2 in rushing yards allowed. So, it isn’t like are elite in one area and weak in another. No, New England won’t let you pass or run.
Over the years, the Patriots have dominated this series. They are 5-1 all-time and 3-0 over the last three meetings. The Cowboys haven’t run into a defense like this yet this season, and I believe they are in for a rude awakening. Belichick will game-plan well, especially after their loss to the dual-threat Baltimore Ravens.
I see this one as a 20-10 victory for the Pats. Their defense will no doubt have it in their mind to make grinding the top two teams in the NFC East to a halt a priority. After dropping 37 points to the Ravens, the Pats are back on track to the best defensive season in franchise history and will be playing to attain their names in the history books.
Take New England to win and cover the 6-point spread.