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This is the Most Overlooked Fantasy Football Stat

HERO Sports by HERO Sports
July 31, 2017
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This is the Most Overlooked Fantasy Football Stat

Fantasy football gurus shoved receiving targets down owners' throats for years. While receptions, yards and touchdowns are what ultimately win matchups, it all starts with targets, targets and targets.

Now that most informed owners are finally weighing targets in their personnel and sit/start decisions, those gurus can turn their attention elsewhere, such as average depth of target.

Fans are infatuated with yards per catch, and rightfully so. Most 34-reception receivers are hardly relevant, yet J.J. Nelson was a WR3 in many lineups because he had 568 yards on those 34 receptions, or 16.71 yards per reception, sixth in the NFL behind Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, Kenny Stills, Chris Hogan and the league leader DeSean Jackson (17.95).

Was Nelson the beneficiary of bad tackling and/or botched assignments near the line of scrimmage that led to numerous bubble screen bursts? Or was he actually one of the best deep threats in the league?

He was actually one of the best and most reliable deep threats in the league. Though his 2.3-catch-per-game-played volume is a legitimate concern (as is the 4.5 targets per game), the 5-foot-10, 160-pound speedster ranked second in the NFL in average depth of target.

MORE: Breaking Down 2016 NFL Scoring by Age

Targets to Nelson traveled an average distance of 18.13 yards, second only to Sammie Coates (21.65), according to Pro Football Focus. Nelson — who credits his big-play ability to quarterback Carson Palmer — is one of only six receivers who had an average depth of 16 yards or more and one of only 13 above 15 yards. 

“[Palmer] has the best deep ball I’ve ever seen,” Nelson said. “I love catching them. With B.A. loving those type of plays, I’m good here, you know what I’m saying?”

And with Michael Floyd gone, Nelson's deep-ball opportunities should go up in an offense that loves to take shots. Both Floyd (15.08 yards per target) and Brown (14.77) also ranked in the top 15.

Here are the top 20 receivers in average depth of target (min. 40 targets):

  Player Team (2016) Targets Avg. Depth of Targets
1 Sammie Coats PIT 54 21.65
2 J.J. Nelson ARI 67 18.13
3 Robby Anderson NYJ 75 17.47
4 DeSean Jackson WAS 89 16.89
5 Marquise Goodwin BUF 63 16.56
6 Mike Evans TB 168 16.01
7 Corey Coleman CLE 62 15.97
8 Kenny Stills MIA 80 15.58
9 Terrelle Pryor CLE 132 15.48
10 Will Fuller HOU 99 15.35
11 Alshon Jeffery CHI 92 15.35
12 Dez Bryant DAL 100 15.12
13 Michael Floyd ARI 75 15.08
14 Paul Richardson SEA 41 14.83
15 John Brown ARI 66 14.77
16 Chris Hogan NE 77 14.68
17 Breshad Perriman BAL 64 14.67
18 Sammy Watkins BUF 50 14.64
19 Marvin Jones DET 107 14.47
20 Torrey Smith SF 45 14.36
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