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Bennett College Basketball Value Picks for Thursday, Feb. 1

HERO Sports by HERO Sports
February 1, 2018
0
Bennett College Basketball Value Picks for Thursday, Feb. 1

There are 63 games today in men's D1 college basketball. There are no big games today.  

Yesterday, January 31, our spread picks were 2-1 and over/under pick was 1-0. Our lone spread pick loss was a blowout Arizona win (100-72) over hapless Washington State (Vegas +12).  

TODAY February 1: Bennett Pick Summary 

BENNETT Spread Picks:
No. 1: Wofford​ (-7)
No. 2: Hofstra​  (-8)
No. 3: Northern Kentucky (-10)
No. 4: Furman (+1)
No. 5: Middle Tennessee (+3)
No  6: Hawaii (+8)

BENNETT Over/Under Picks:
No. 1: UNDER Wofford​ @ The Citadel (170)
No. 2: OVER Wright State @ Cleveland State (130)
No. 3: OVER Chattanooga​ @ Western Carolina (134)
No. 4: OVER Tennessee State v. Morehead State (131)

Daily, we recommend 4-10 games that have the most differential between the Bennett Spread and the Vegas Spread, and some games with a significant over/under differential which is way off what our models suggest. When there are more games played, we tend to have more Bennett Value Picks.  

The Bennett Power Score (BPS) was created as a point spread predictor on a neutral court. BPS is based on adjusted margins of victory and strength of schedule for games played to date. More recent games are weighted more heavily. These are updated twice daily as scores are reported and are the foundation for BennettRank (BR). BR ranks all major college sports and divisions twice daily. See all current basketball rankings here. 

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BENNETT SPREAD PICKS

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Wofford​ -7 over The Citadel 

TEAM BPS  VEGAS Line BENNETT Line LAST 5
Wofford

81.2

-7 -10.6 2-3
@ The Citadel 67.6 +7 +10.6 4-1
Neutral Court Spread 13.6      

Which Bennett Rank #332 Citadel team will show up tonight, the one that narrowly lost to Bennett Rank #77 East Tennessee State or the one that gave up 101 points to Bennett Rank #297 Chattanooga? Wofford is no slouch, beating The Citadel earlier in the season at home by 17.  

[divider]

Hofstra​ -8 over North Carolina-Wilmington

TEAM BPS  VEGAS Line BENNETT Line LAST 5
North Carolina Wilmington 72.3 +8 +11.1 2-3
@ Hofstra 80.4 -8 -11.1 4-1
Neutral Court Spread -8.1      

We love picks that are Vegas pegs to a neutral court. In this case, our neutral court spread at -8.1 is the Vegas Line, giving no value to home court advantage. This is North Carolina's first road game in two weeks. Hofstra is coming off an away win at Delaware.  

[divider]

Northern Kentucky -10 over Youngstown State

TEAM BPS  VEGAS Line BENNETT Line LAST 5
Northern Kentucky 85.4 -10 -14.1 2-3
@ Youngstown State 68.3 +10 +14.1 4-1
Neutral Court Spread 17.1      

This is the Bennett Rank #82 team (Northern Kentucky) vs. a Bennett Rank #325 team (Youngstown State). This is no contest, and the margin will just depend on how much Northern Kentucky wants to rest up their players for Saturday's game. Against similar competition (both with Bennett Rank SOS ranks 220ish), Northern Kentucky has won by an average of 13, while Youngstown State has lost by an average of 8; a 21 point differential.    

[divider]

Furman +1 over Mercer

TEAM BPS  VEGAS Line BENNETT Line LAST 5
Furman 84.0 +1 -2.3 2-3
@ Mercer 78.7 -1 +2.3 4-1
Neutral Court Spread 5.3      

Vegas sees Mercer winning this game, we don't. Furman, at Bennett Rank #102, is much higher ranked than Mercer at Bennett Rank #170. On a neutral court, we see Furman winning by 5+. Home court advantage won't be enough to compensate. Mercer is coming off a bad loss away against BennettRank #331 The Citadel. They won't be able to regroup in enough time to win this one.  

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Middle Tennessee +3 over Old Dominion

TEAM BPS  VEGAS Line BENNETT Line LAST 5
Middle Tennessee 89.6 +3 -.4 2-3
@ Old Dominion 86.2 -3 +.4 4-1
Neutral Court Spread 3.2      

Although playing away, Middle Tennessee will win this one outright even though Vegas sees Old Dominion prevailing. On a neutral court, the Bennett Spread is 3 points in Middle Tennessee's favor. Both teams have solid winning streaks, but Old Dominion has been matched up against much weaker competition with Bennett Rank SoS scores of #245 for Old Dominion and #62 for Middle Tennessee.  

[divider]

Hawaii +8 over UC Santa Barbara

TEAM BPS  VEGAS Line BENNETT Line LAST 5
Hawaii 81.1 +8 +.4.3 2-3
@ Santa Barbara 82.4 -8 -.4.3 4-1
Neutral Court Spread -1.3      

Santa Barbara is the better team, but not 8 points better. Against somewhat similar strengths of schedule; Santa Barbara allows 7.8 more points per game than Hawaii. If Santa Barbara doesn't come and play defense, Hawaii will win this one. On a neutral court, we have Santa Barbara winning by 1+. Home court advantage is not worth 7 points. Go with the Warriors.  

[divider]

BENNETT OVER/UNDER PICKS

TEAM Vegas Bennett Bet
Wofford @ The Citadel 170 151 UNDER
Wright State @ Cleveland State 130 137

OVER

Chattanooga @ Western Carolina

134 141 OVER
Tennessee State @ Morehead State 131 139 OVER
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