With Daily Fantasy Football and NFL betting, it’s all about finding value and getting a nice sizable return on your investment.
In all honesty, some weeks it can be hard to find value, even with a full slate of 15 or 16 NFL games. But this week we are going to do the inverse and according to sportsbookreview.com, show three games with so little value that you should completely stay away from them. Basically, the closest you want to get to these games is the distance from your television to your couch.
Carolina Panthers vs. Indianapolis Colts
On Sunday, December 22nd, we have a clash between two teams who have no hope of making the playoffs. On top of that, it’s an interconference game between two teams who now just wish the season was over.
The Colts are 6-8 and have no mathematical chance of catching the Texans in the AFC South. They can’t even get a wild card spot if the Titans and Steelers both lose out over the next two weeks. Not only are they losers when it comes to their regular-season record, but they are losers against the point spread as well, with am ATS record of 6-7-1.
The Carolina Panthers have a ton of talent and a whole lot of bad luck and perhaps even poor guidance. At 5-9 they are at the very bottom of the NFC South and you can check them off the list of possible playoff entrants. Like the Colts, they are 6-7-1 ATS.
When we look at the predictive power rankings and statistical analysis, these two teams are side-by-side at No. 22 and No. 23 in the league. As the away team, the Panthers are 50% against the spread. As away-dogs, they are also 50% ATS. The Colts are 50% against the point spread as the home favorite, 50% in non-conference games, and just 42.9% as the home team in general. Everything about this games screams that it’s a coin toss. Sure, you could take the Colts to win, but stay away from this point spread.
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
This is another weird one because we have two 3-11 division rivals going at it in the second to last game of the season. Neither team is within spitting distance of the postseason.
The Skins are -2.5 home favorites, which doesn’t make sense to me. They have the No. 31 home offense in the league, scoring just 15 points per game at FedEx Field. The Giants, on the other hand, have a less terrible road offense as they have averaged 21 per game on the highway. So, it must be the defense making the spread, right? Wrong. The Skins allow 27.29 per game at home and the Giants allow 29.71 on the road. So … by the law of averages, the Giants should be roughly 4.5 point favorites. Even if you give the Skins a field goal for home-field advantage, the Giants are still 1.5 point favorites. Plus, they are coming fresh off an Eli Manning win over the Dolphins and the team gets to play a couple of more snaps with their old leader before he retires. I just don’t see how the Skins are justifiably favorites in this meeting. So, you could say, there is value on the Giants … but I smell a trap. So, stay away.
Eli might revert to the Eli we saw all season long last years, now that his comeback performance is over and he’s back into the swing of things. In other words, much like Vegas in the traditional sense, I feel like the sportsbooks simply have information that we don’t have or they are trying to lead us by the nose into making a bad decision. Admiral Ackbar can shout it out now, It’s a trap!!!
Stay away from the Bengals at Dolphins this Sunday as well. The line has moved in the wrong direction. The Dolphins opened as field-goal favorites at Hard Rock Stadium over the bungling Bengals but have since moved to just -1. This makes zero sense, especially since 60% of the public is betting on the Dolphins to cover, the line should have moved to -3.5 or -4.
The sportsbooks are setting you up with this near pick’em line, probably trying to get people to take a shot on the Bengals money line. Steer clear of this game because the house is playing with loaded dice.