No. 2 seed North Dakota State hosts No. 3 seed South Dakota State in the FCS semifinals. Kickoff is 11 a.m. CT Saturday on ABC.
What are some keys to victory for NDSU and SDSU? We break down five for each below.
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North Dakota State
MVP Miller
NDSU quarterback Cam Miller needs to be the best player in the Fargodome for the Bison to win. The Bison o-line has struggled in the playoffs to get a good push in the run game, rushing for 101 yards on 31 attempts vs. Abilene Christian and 133 yards on 41 carries vs. Mercer. Plus, running back and Jerry Rice Award winner CharMar Brown is battling through a toe injury. They go up against SDSU’s No. 1 scoring defense (12.9 PPG) and No. 5 rushing defense (89.1 YPG). Miller’s arm and scrambling abilities may be NDSU’s best shot to move the ball. The Jacks also own PFF’s No. 2 coverage grade in the FCS. Their entire starting secondary earned All-MVFC honors, led by safety Tucker Large, who did not play against NDSU earlier this year. Miller has diced up SDSU’s secondary in portions of previous games, and he’ll need to do so again.
Tackling
NDSU’s tackling grade on PFF is ranked 119th in the FCS. The Bison have struggled to tackle in space. They’ll need to win 1-on-1 tackling battles against SDSU running backs Angel Johnson (elusive and slippery) and Amar Johnson (open-field cuts and stiff arms) if those two get to the second and third levels of the NDSU defense.
QB Pressure
Mark Gronowski was totally out of rhythm when these two played in October. He bailed out of the pocket when he got to the top of his dropback, and NDSU edge defenders were waiting for him, resulting in him needing to throw the ball away multiple times. SDSU is No. 1 in the FCS in sacks allowed per game (0.50), and Gronowski and SDSU’s passing attack is clicking much better now than in the first half of the season. Getting him out of rhythm again will be key as the Bison own the No. 2 PFF pass-rush grade.
Stop The Run
NDSU first needs to put SDSU in passing situations so they can generate QB pressure. The Jackrabbit o-line has dominated the line of scrimmage in playoff games while Amar Johnson is playing some of the best ball in his SDSU career. NDSU’s front seven is experienced and deep, owning the No. 21 PFF rush defense. SDSU has the No. 4-graded rushing offense in the FCS. A guy like DT Eli Mostaert needs to make his presence felt and live in SDSU’s backfield.
Contain Wilde
If they can stop the run, the Bison need to contain Griffin Wilde on the outside. Gronowski and Wilde have developed one of the best QB-WR connections down the stretch. In the last three games, the sophomore has four catches for 139 yards and a touchdown, seven catches for 114 yards and two TDs, and three catches for 67 yards and two scores. This season, Wilde has 66 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns. The next leading pass-catcher is Grahm Goering with 24 catches for 346 yards, but he is sidelined with an injury. The next two leading pass-catchers are Johnson and Johnson out of the backfield. And then the next leading pass-catcher is true freshman WR Lofton O’Groske, who has just 14 catches for 177 yards and one touchdown. That’s a large dropoff in production from WR1 to WR2. NDSU’s secondary has been OK this season, not helped by injuries. The DBs have been caught out of position at times for explosive plays, and they can’t let that happen on play-action where Wilde is streaking down the middle wide-open behind the safeties reading run.
South Dakota State
Mark In Rhythm
Mark Gronowski and SDSU’s passing attack was spinning its tires in the first half of the season. SDSU’s PFF passing grades were in the 40s-60s each game during this time, but recently have been in the upper-70s to upper-80s down the stretch. The Jacks’ o-line and rushing attack have also been rolling lately, but you’d expect NDSU’s experienced front seven to play well on Saturday. Gronowski has to be dialed in, take care of the ball, and hit open receivers when opportunities are there to connect downfield. Two makeable throws and catches would have sealed the win for SDSU in Fargo earlier this year, but one fell incomplete and the other was ruled out of bounds. The pass-catchers need to hit their spots, work their way properly through zone coverage, be on the same page with Gronowski, and make contested catches. Some of his incompletions have been due to miscommunications or mistimings with his route runners. And SDSU’s offensive line, which ranks No. 1 in FCS sacks allowed per game (0.50), has to give Gronowski a clean pocket.
D-line Disruption
NDSU’s o-line hasn’t gotten a great push in the playoffs, plus running back and Jerry Rice Award winner CharMar Brown is battling through a toe injury. But NDSU will still try to establish the run. SDSU, which owns the No. 1 FCS scoring defense, No. 1 PFF defense, and No. 5 rushing defense, needs to stifle the run and force NDSU to throw. Cam Miller, a Top 3 Walter Payton Award finalist, can carve up a defense if he has time. Generating pressure is key, and Jarod DePriest, Bryce Hawthorne, and Kobe Clayborne have to play big on Saturday. Disciplined rushing lanes are also important, as Miller has been NDSU’s best rushing option at times this year, even when it isn’t a designed run. Sending timely blitzes from the second level by linebackers Adam Bock and Caleb Francl (who did suffer an ankle injury last week) is something to watch as well.
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Third-Down Stops
The Jacks have to get off the field on third downs. Miller has been money in third-down situations, whether it be finding an open receiver or scrambling and getting across the first-down marker. The Bison are No. 4 in converting third downs (0.534), and SDSU is No. 5 in third-down conversion defense (0.287). SDSU’s stout front seven will likely force many third downs and passing situations. NDSU does such a good job spreading the receptions out, so the Jacks’ secondary will have to be sharp. The Jacks own PFF’s No. 2 coverage grade in the FCS. Their entire starting secondary earned All-MVFC honors, led by safety Tucker Large, who did not play against NDSU earlier this year.
Angel In Space
NDSU’s tackling grade on PFF is ranked 119th in the FCS. The Bison have struggled to tackle in space. The Jackrabbits need to find creative ways to get their athletes in 1-on-1 situations. And their best guy in the open field is running back Angel Johnson. Johnson did not play last week for undisclosed reasons, but there is a decent chance he’ll be back this week. Fellow running back Amar Johnson has had a fabulous finish to this season, and he’s run wild on NDSU before. He’s more of a patient back. Angel’s ability to turn nothing into something big with one cut could give NDSU’s defense more trouble.
Special Teams
Points may be at a premium on Saturday, and possessions will be limited. Field position on punts, hitting field goals, smooth operations on punts and field goals, not allowing any big returns, or flipping the field with a big return will all be key and potential difference-makers. SDSU’s defense has the edge on NDSU’s defense, but NDSU’s offense has the edge on SDSU’s offense. The better special teams will help sway the outcome.
