As the 2024 FCS offseason marches on, HERO Sports will look at five questions for the 2023 quarterfinalists.
Next up is North Dakota State.
NDSU finished 11-4 last year, losing 31-29 in double OT at Montana in the semifinals. Here are five questions the Bison face entering 2024.
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Is The NDSU Dynasty Over?
Two things can be true. NDSU’s dynasty is, subjectively speaking, over. But NDSU will probably win at least two more national titles in the next five years (unless a route to the FBS opens up, which doesn’t look likely for the foreseeable future … or D1 football blows up and there’s a complete restructuring, which we’re inching closer to but how that shakes out and when is anyone’s guess).
When exactly a dynasty starts and ends is subjective. Three titles in four or five years seem like a fair parameter. So South Dakota State isn’t a dynasty yet with two in a row. And NDSU’s dynasty of nine titles from 2011-21 is done. But again, a new string of national titles can begin, separate from the first dynasty.
The Bison have won just one national championship in the last four seasons. I say “just” relative to NDSU’s level of expectations. Some FCS fans are longing for just one national championship in the last four seasons.
Still, one title in four years is kind of wild to think about for the Bison. Especially two offseasons ago after NDSU rolled Montana State in the championship when it looked like the Bison were finally off their tracks in the 2021 spring and most of the 2021 fall. The offseason topic was how was anything going to derail the Bison. Is NDSU bad for the FCS? Would it be better for the FCS if NDSU found its way to the FBS? At what point does the FCS playoffs become too stale for not only NDSU fans but for fan bases around the FCS if NDSU just keeps on winning?
NDSU’s “worst” was better than some teams’ best (and still is). There was plenty of angst about the above questions entering 2022. Until SDSU rose up and surpassed the Bison postseason-wise. Then Montana joined the party last season and surpassed the Bison on the field, knocking them out in the semifinals. It was the first time since 2016 that NDSU didn’t reach a fall national title game.
Montana State had multiple chances in the second round to beat NDSU. If one play goes differently on a few different occasions, our offseason conversation about the Bison (and the Bobcats) would be very different. Imagine the upheaval if the Bison would have lost in the second round. But because they found a way to beat MSU, then rolled a deer-in-the-headlights South Dakota team, and then nearly beat Montana in the semis, our preseason expectations for NDSU are very high.
If that NDSU team can be that close to making another championship appearance, what’s in store for a 2024 team that returns most of its heavy hitters?
It’s not a flawless 2024 roster. Questions remain. The questions below are not nit-picky, as sometimes questions about past NDSU teams have been. However, there is a vibe about this team. The star players have stuck together through enticing FBS NIL offers and a thought-to-be controversial head coaching change. Sometimes these types of stories start to write themselves, and the story of the Bison making another title run in 2024 began last month when the transfer portal window closed. We’ll see what the April window brings, but getting through the last window mostly unscathed is promising.
How Does The Polasek Era Look?
The 2023 playoff run had to be mentally taxing on NDSU players.
Unseeded, NDSU won a slobberknocker at Montana State in the second round, an overtime thriller thanks to a game-winning blocked PAT. The next week, NDSU dealt with the rumors of several key players being enticed to leave by FBS NIL offers. Nothing happened, and then NDSU walloped South Dakota on the road in the quarterfinals.
A day later, it was announced head coach Matt Entz was leaving after the season to take an assistant job at USC. That week, NDSU players dealt with the uncertainty of who the next head coach would be. There was a social media push from former and current players for offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl to be elevated. There were even threats that a mass exodus would happen if it wasn’t Roehl.
With no news of the next head coach yet, the Bison went to the state of Montana again and lost a double-OT instant classic in the semifinals.
A day later, NDSU named Wyoming OC and former NDSU OC Tim Polasek the next head coach. The first meeting between Polasek and the players was reportedly tense. Some sources said Roehl’s locker was cleared out when the players arrived.
Rough waters appeared to be coming. And then … nothing really happened. NDSU didn’t lose any star players to the portal. Polasek won his guys over in more meetings. And the high school signing class remained mostly intact.
There was one awkward sequence when Roehl was retained as OC and elevated to associate head coach, and then he took the OC job at Tennessee State a couple of weeks later. That led to Polasek hiring St. Thomas OC Jake Landry, who had accepted the North Dakota OC position a week before. Landry landed (briefly) at UND because the Fighting Hawks lost Danny Freund to be SDSU’s co-OC. SDSU had to make OC moves because Zach Lujan took the same job at Northwestern, which led to a big offseason question for SDSU that still lingers.
The offseason, man.
But other than the Roehl drama, non-drama, and then drama again, the early weeks of Polasek’s tenure have been smooth. He’ll truly be judged by how his team looks and performs on gamedays. The system and look to casual fans probably won’t change much. Fundamentals, discipline, preparedness, in-game adjustments, handling big moments, recruiting and retaining … Those are the things to watch for under Polasek and his staff, which is a mixture of returning Bison coaches and new assistants coming in.
Can The Defense Return To A Championship-Level Caliber?
NDSU’s defense was fine last year. It was solid. Pretty good. Above-average. By FCS standards. But it was far from the NDSU standard of the whole “defense wins championships” thing.
The Bison were 18th in FCS scoring defense (19.9), 24th against the pass (186.1), 22nd against the run (116.5), and were ranked in the 90s in PFF’s tackling grades.
The Bison return about nine starters in 2024.
The d-line should be very good, led by sacks leader Dylan Hendricks, plus Will and Eli Mostaert returning on the interior. Eli is a top-tier FCS DT. The linebackers ranged from OK to pretty good in 2023. They all return and look to keep getting better. NDSU should be fine at cornerback. Safety play alongside All-American Cole Wisniewski could get a little better.
It’s a unit that will need to go from pretty good to really good if NDSU wants to wear the FCS crown again.
How Good Can Cam Miller Be?
Folks have differing views of Cam Miller, not just FCS followers but NDSU fans as well.
Some believe he’s very good. And his overall stats, efficiency, PFF grades, and clutch plays that don’t show up on the stat sheet back that up. People in the other camp believe he’s being a bit overrated by those in the first camp, that NDSU’s system is QB friendly, that he can’t beat SDSU, and they point to Miller’s underwhelming performances in a handful of 2022 and 2023 games.
This writer leans with the first camp. Miller elevated his play in 2023 and changed many minds, especially after a gutsy postseason. Doubters still remain. But there’s a decent chance that those doubters are hanging onto some box scores instead of watching some of the plays, throws, and runs he made in big moments.
This fall will be his fifth season of starting games (he started two in the 2021 spring). Miller and Eli Green will be among the top QB-WR duos in the FCS.
If Miller can go from pretty good in 2022 to good in 2023 to great in 2024, the Bison offense will be rolling. It’s a unit that already was one of the hottest last fall, ranking No. 3 nationally by averaging 38.1 points per game.
Who Steps Up On The OL And As RB1?
NDSU finished fourth in FCS rushing offense, averaging 237.3 yards per game. It just had a different look and feel to it, though. There wasn’t a game-changing running back. And the o-line, while great in pass protection, wasn’t getting the same level of push in the run game for most of the regular season.
NDSU didn’t have a running back surpass 100 rushing yards in a game until the second round.
For a good chunk of the season, the two most dangerous rushers were QBs Cam Miller and Cole Payton. Both return in 2024.
Miller finished second on the team with 629 yards. Payton was third with 615. Both had a team-high 13 rushing touchdowns. TaMerik Williams, who has exhausted his eligibility, rushed for a team-high 767 yards, boosted by his 162-yard second-round performance. The Bison return Barika Kpeenu (501 yards, 4 TDs) and TK Marshall (386 yards, 6 TDs).
NDSU’s offensive line returns just two starters. That includes tackle Grey Zabel, a 2025 NFL Draft prospect who was one of the Bison players that had large NIL bags offered to him from P5 collectives.
The Bison o-line is never really a concern. Again, by FCS standards, NDSU is always going to be good up front. But it wasn’t a mauling unit in 2023 when compared to NDSU’s standards. It’s a unit that faces starting five and depth question marks, questions relative to the elite line play needed to win a national title.
