Different coach, different roster, same Drake Bulldogs.
Despite Ben McCollum taking over at the helm and a roster overhaul — only two players returned from last season — Drake had no issues running away with their first regular-season Missouri Valley Conference title since 2008.
At 8/1, college basketball betting odds had the Bulldogs as the fourth favorite to win the league entering the season. It wasn’t a pretty start after they dropped their first two conference games to UIC and Murray State. Now, Drake has the No. 1 seed entering Arch Madness and a great shot of advancing to the tournament title game for the fifth consecutive season. The Bulldogs are eyeing their third straight trophy.
Drake, Bradley, and Loyola Chicago (before moving to the Atlantic 10) have each won two tournaments in the past six seasons, so we’ll see if another program can make a run and clinch an NCAA tournament berth.
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Missouri Valley Conference Basketball Tournament Odds
| Team | BetMGM Odds |
| Drake | -110 |
| Bradley | +320 |
| Northern Iowa | +500 |
| Belmont | +1200 |
| Illinois State | +1500 |
| Murray State | +2200 |
| Illinois Chicago | +3000 |
| Southern Illinois | +5000 |
| Indiana State | +8000 |
Odds via BetMGM as of March 5
Missouri Valley Conference Basketball Tournament Prediction
I would like to say that the bottom half of the tournament bracket is much tougher than the top:
But as we know, anything can happen in March.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if each of the lower seeds won their first-round matchups. The first round will feature two rematches from the final day of the regular season (March 2nd) with No. 8 Southern Illinois meeting No. 9 Indiana and No. 6 UIC matching up with No. 11 Valparaiso. Indiana State defeated the Salukis by 18 while UIC came away with a four-point win over Valpo. I think the losers of those games — SIU and Valpo — will win their first-round matchups.
In the other two first-round matchups, fifth-seeded Illinois State will square off with No. 12 Missouri State while seventh-seeded Murray State meets No. 10 Evansville. Illinois State should handle business over MSU, but the Aces have a real shot to upset Murray State. Evansville’s defense is legit and the Racers’ offense is nonexistent at times. They split their regular-season matchups this season, with the Aces’ loss only coming by two.
While I think Nos. 10 and 11 will advance to the quarterfinals, they’ll run into a solid pair of teams in Bradley and Northern Iowa. I think Bradley and UNI will win handedly to advance to the semifinals.
It seems like Drake has an easier path to the championship, with a game against SIU or Indiana State in the quarterfinals and likely a meeting against Illinois State or Belmont in the semis. I think that the Bulldogs end up playing Illinois State in this spot and pick up a win to advance to their third straight championship. This means they’d match up with either the second or third seed (UNI or Bradley).
It’s boring to assume that two of the top three seeds will be playing in the tourney championship, but each of these programs have experienced coaches and players, with few underclassmen playing big roles. I think that’ll have a big impact on the outcome of this tournament.
With odds as short as -110 backing Drake to win the tourney is the best bet to make, but both Bradley and UNI offer plenty of value. Illinois State and its electric offense might be the best longshot bet. The Redbirds will be dangerous if they can get hot for a few days.
