College football has returned, and there’s important games being played between Group of Five teams this week.
There’s a ton of great G5 programs this year, and all will be vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Here’s my predictions for G5 games in Week 1.
Northwestern vs. Tulane Prediction
I predict Tulane will win and cover the 5.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
Without Darian Mensah, who transferred to Duke, Tulane went and added a few QBs in the transfer portal. That includes BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff, Ball State transfer Kadin Semonza, Iowa transfer Brendan Sullivan, and Illinois transfer Donovan Leary.
But whoever is Tulane’s starter, I don’t think the Green Wave will need to put up a ton of points to win. They should be pretty strong up front and could control the game on the ground. Derrick Graham and Shadre Hurst are among Tulane’s returners on the offensive line after making the All-AAC first team in 2024.
The Green Wave’s defense, which should be bolstered with some transfers, also returns a good amount of experience. Five of their top seven tacklers from a year ago are back.
Among them, All-AAC second-team linebacker Sam Howard is the leading returning tackler after tallying 53 tackles, 5.5 for loss, as well as 2.5 sacks and five fumble recoveries in 2024.
Tulane might be one of the best teams in the American once again, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Green Wave start the season strong with a double-digit Power Four win.
Toledo vs. Kentucky Prediction
I predict Kentucky will win but Toledo will cover the 10-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 48.5 total points.
Toledo may have lost some star players like wide receiver Jerjuan Newton, defensive tackle Darius Alexander, and defensive back Maxen Hook, who all received opportunities with NFL teams. But the Rockets have some great players coming back, too.
At quarterback, Tucker Gleason is returning after an impressive 2024 campaign. He threw for 2,808 yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while completing 60.5% of his passes. He also ran for 364 yards and a team-best seven TDs.
Six of Toledo’s top nine receivers from last year are back. G5 All-American wide receiver Junior Vandeross III is returning after catching 85 passes for 957 yards and five scores. Connor Walendzak is also back after leading the Rockets with 458 rushing yards to go with a touchdown as well as 14 catches for 77 yards.
I think Toledo will lean on its offense to keep the game close. Expecting the Rockets to win a Power Four matchup I don’t believe is reasonable, especially on the road. But I think this contest will be decided by a single touchdown.
Eastern Michigan vs. Texas State Prediction
I project Texas State will win and cover the 13.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 58.5 total points.
Texas State could end up making it to the Sun Belt Championship this year before going to the Pac-12. But the Bobcats will need strong play from their quarterback, who will be Brad Jackson in Week 1. Jackson played in three games at Texas State in 2024, completing 8 of 15 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 164 yards and four TDs.
Jackson will have some skilled players on offense to depend on. Lincoln Pare, who ran for 554 yards and eight touchdowns while catching 12 passes for 134 yards, and Torrance Burgess Jr., who was third on the team with 367 rushing yards to go with two TDs and caught 10 passes for 111 yards, are both back.
Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks are returning at wide receiver. Dawn caught 37 passes for 418 yards and six touchdowns in 2024, while Sparks added 271 yards and two scores on 25 receptions.
Left tackle Dorion Strawn and right guard Tellek Lockette return to lead the offensive line after starting all 13 games last season.
On defense, the Bobcats should be strong up front. Defensive end Kalil Alexander led Texas State with 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss while adding 39 tackles, two pass breakups, and two fumble recoveries. Fellow defensive end Jo’Laison Landry was third on the team with 4.5 sacks and 7.5 TFLs and recorded 33 total tackles and two forced fumbles.
I think the Bobcats will play well enough on both sides of the ball to earn a 20-point home victory.
Colorado State vs. Washington Prediction
I predict Washington will win but Colorado State will cover the 21.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
Colorado State is missing some of its stars from last season, including wide receiver Tory Horton, who is now in the NFL.
But the Rams return some solid players as well, and quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is among them. After making the All-Mountain West honorable mention list in 2023, he threw for 2,796 yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on a 61% completion rate in 2024. He also ran for 75 yards and four TDs.
Justin Marshall is back for CSU after running for 746 yards and four TDs. After ranking third on the team with 153 yards and a score on the ground, Jalen Dupree is also returning. Wide receivers Armani Winfield (38 catches for 341 yards and two TDs in 2024) and Jordan Ross (15 catches for 218 yards and a score) are back as well.
Aaron Karas will look to lead CSU’s offensive line again after making the all-conference honorable mention list in 2024 while playing right tackle. But Colorado State’s defense, which ranked fifth in the Mountain West with 23.92 points per game allowed last year, lost their top six tacklers from a season ago.
So while Washington may be capable of scoring enough in this contest to win, I think the Rams will put up some points of their own and won’t lose by more than two touchdowns.
Old Dominion vs. Indiana Prediction
I predict Indiana will win but Old Dominion will cover the 23.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 53.5 total points.
Many Old Dominion fans are optimistic about this season. It’s easy to see why considering the talent the Monarchs have on both sides of the ball.
Let’s start at quarterback. Colton Joseph made the All-Sun Belt honorable mention list last year as a redshirt freshman after he threw for 1,627 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions on a 60% completion rate in eight starts. He also ran for 647 yards and a team-best 11 touchdowns.
And on defense, the Monarchs might have the best linebacking corps in the Group of Five and all of college football.
Koa Naotala made the All-Sun Belt second team last year after leading the Monarchs with 88 tackles while adding 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and one forced fumble. Mario Thompson made the all-conference honorable mention list after ranking third on the team with 65 tackles and second with 9.5 TFLs while totaling four sacks and one fumble recovery.
And that’s not to mention Preseason G5 All-American Jason Henderson, who missed all but one game last season after ranking second in the FBS with 170 tackles in 2023.
Defensive lineman Kris Trinidad, another Preseason G5 All-American, returns as well. The all-conference third-teamer in 2024 led Old Dominion with 10.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks while also recording 45 tackles, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery.
Indiana is a good program now. But I think ODU will surprise some people this year, and that’ll start with a close game here.
Cal vs. Oregon State Prediction
I predict Oregon State will win and cover the 1.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 49.5 total points.
Oregon State has some solid players returning. But the Beavers also have to adjust following some losses as well.
Gevani McCoy, the Beavers’ starting quarterback last year, is now at Temple. But OSU did address the position in the transfer portal.
Maalik Murphy is now a Beaver after starting 12 games for Duke a season ago. He threw for 26 touchdowns, which ranked 13th in the country and was a single-season program record, and 2,933 yards, which ranked 22nd in the FBS. He also completed 60% of his passes while throwing 12 interceptions.
But OSU’s strength could be its running game. Anthony Hankerson is on the roster after leading OSU with 1,082 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground to go with 151 yards on 27 receptions.
Wide receivers Trent Walker and Darrius Clemons are also returning. Walker paced the Beavers with 81 receptions for 901 yards and two touchdowns, while Clemons added 292 yards and two touchdowns on 25 catches.
The Beavers also return some key players on defense. Defensive back Skyler Thomas led the Beavers with 81 tackles, two fumble recoveries, and nine passes defended to go with one interception a season ago.
I think Oregon State will be much better than it was last year. And I expect the Beavers will prove it with a win and a solid offensive performance in this matchup at home.
Rice vs. Louisiana Prediction
I predict Louisiana will win and cover the 11.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 47.5 total points.
Louisiana has some talent returning on defense. And I think the Ragin’ Cajuns will lean on their ground game on offense.
All-Sun Belt second-team defensive lineman Jordan Lawson is back after recording 44 tackles, 10.5 for loss, as well as 5.5 sacks, two passes defended, one interception, and a fumble recovery. All-conference second-team defensive back Tyree Skipper is also returning. He tied for a team lead with four interceptions while adding 41 tackles and six passes defended. Linebacker Jaden Dugger is also back after tallying 37 tackles, four for loss, with one sack, two passes defended, and a forced fumble.
On offense, G5 Preseason All-American Bill Davis led Louisiana with 796 yards and nine touchdowns rushing. Zylan Perry, an all-conference honorable mention last year, was second on the team with 695 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
I think Louisiana will compile some methodical drives and will dominate time of possession at home to get a two-touchdown victory.
UTEP vs. Utah State Prediction
I predict UTEP will win and cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 60.5 total points.
UTEP’s success will likely depend on how well Malachi Nelson performs in his first start for the Miners at quarterback. Nelson is a former five-star prospect and was the No. 1-ranked recruit by ESPN coming out of high school in 2022. He redshirted at USC in 2023 and spent last season at Boise State but lost the battle to become the Broncos’ starter.
Nelson will have some talent to work with.
Kam Thomas, who’s a Miner Back in UTEP’s offense, tied for a team lead with 47 catches while recording 532 yards and two touchdowns through the air last year. He also was a first-team All-CUSA punt returner, returning 10 punts for 100 yards and a touchdown last season while also leading the team with 112 kick return yards.
Kenny Odom is also back after making the All-CUSA second team. He led UTEP with 741 yards and eight touchdowns receiving on 46 catches. UTEP added several pass catchers through the transfer portal as well.
On the offensive line, center Ivan Escobar, tackles Jaquan Toney and Azizi Henry, and left guard Joseph Immediato are all returning after each making multiple starts a season ago.
I expect Utah State to put up some points in this matchup as well. But I think the Miners are capable of winning in a high-scoring contest.
Marshall vs. Georgia Prediction
I predict Georgia will win and cover the 38.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
Following the coaching change, Marshall lost many of its best players from last year. That includes its starting quarterback, as Braylon Braxton is now at Southern Miss.
Marshall did have the sixth-best transfer class in the Sun Belt this offseason, according to 247Sports, and many of those newcomers will need to make critical contributions immediately if this team is going to remain competitive in a tough Sun Belt Conference.
It’s possible this Marshall team will prove some people wrong and will be competitive in the first year of the Tony Gibson era. But I think the Thundering Herd will need a week or two before finding a rhythm.
Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss Prediction
I predict Mississippi State will win but Southern Miss will cover the 13.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 60.5 total points.
Southern Miss lost plenty of players through the coaching change, but the team gained a few stars who previously played under Charles Huff at Marshall.
Quarterback Braylon Braxton is among them. The Group of Five Preseason All-American and 2024 Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year threw for 1,624 yards, 19 touchdowns, and two interceptions while rushing for 610 yards and four touchdowns in 2024.
Southern Miss also added five of Marshall’s top seven receivers from last year. Chuck Montgomery is one of them after ranking second on the Thundering Herd with 32 catches and 393 yards to go with three touchdowns.
Wide receivers Elijah Metcalf, Carl Chester, Tychaun Chapman, and Bralon Brown should also be factors in Southern Miss’ offense. Southern Miss also returns tight end Kyirin Heath and wide receiver Davis Dalton.
Per 247Sports, which ranked Southern Miss as having the best transfer class in the Sun Belt, 21 players transferred to USM from Marshall. Many of them were on defense.
Josh Moten is one of those players. The Preseason G5 All-American tied for third in the FBS last season with five interceptions while adding 38 tackles and five pass breakups.
Ian Foster also transferred from Marshall after totaling 48 tackles, five for loss, with four pass breakups and a forced fumble. He’s also a Preseason G5 All-American return specialist after leading the FBS with 32.4 yards per kick return, as he racked up 518 yards on 16 kick returns in 2024.
Defensive lineman Brodarius Lewis is one of the returners who should play a crucial role for Southern Miss. The G5 Preseason All-American led the team with eight tackles for loss and four sacks to go with 39 tackles a season ago.
This Southern Miss team is more loaded with talent than it has been in a while. While winning right away in Week 1 might be tough, this Golden Eagles squad is one to watch.
