Last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week ended in a push when James Madison surrendered a second-half lead in a 28-14 loss to Louisville.
College football betting odds had the Dukes as 14-point underdogs on Thursday, but the line closed at 15.5, meaning JMU covered the closing spread.
All seemed to be going in the Dukes’ direction in the first half, but then they struggled to get anything going offensively for much of the second half. The big plays were also killer for JMU, as the Cardinals’ second-half touchdowns came on plays of 64 and 78 yards, as well as a recovered fumble for a TD.
This week’s selection comes from Conference USA, along with two of the honorable mentions.
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New Mexico State (Spread +10, Moneyline +300) at Louisiana Tech
This has all the makings for a low-scoring affair.
Both of the games for both of these squads have gone under the total this year, and none of them were close to the Over. The total for this game is at 42.5, and I’m expecting the Under will be a popular play.
With that being said, 10 points is a lot to give a conference team in a potentially low-scoring contest. Since joining CUSA, the Aggies have won the last two matchups against LA Tech by three points and were an underdog in both, including an 11-point underdog last year.
It’s also undecided who the Bulldogs’ quarterback will be this weekend, and I’m often weary of teams who are in this situation. Trey Kukuk has started both games this season, but Blake Baker came in and tossed a touchdown to avoid a shutout against LSU last week. The Aggies’ defense has allowed just 17 points through two games.
I worry about NMSU’s offense putting points on the board against this Bulldogs defense that allowed zero points in Week 1 against Southeastern Louisiana and held LSU and Garrett Nussmeier, the current frontrunner for the Heisman, to only 23 points.
However, I anticipate LA Tech won’t put up a ton of points and that NMSU QB Logan Fife will score enough to keep this game close.
Honorable Mentions
Jacksonville State (+3.5, +150) At Georgia Southern
It’s been a strong start to the season for the Gamecocks, who have been a little bit of a surprise in Charles Kelly’s first season as head coach. They were all over the field in last week’s win over Liberty and simply looked like they just wanted the game more than the Flames.
That hasn’t been the case for Georgia Southern this year. The Eagles haven’t been competitive in their losses to Fresno State and USC and have already given up 1,282 yards.
Even though Jax State rushed for 338 yards on Saturday, I wouldn’t say its offense is prolific. Regardless, the Gamecocks have a solid rushing attack and GASO’s defense allowed Fresno State to rush for 351 yards.
If the Gamecocks can exploit the Eagles’ rushing defense, I think they should give themselves an opportunity to win this game.
Georgia Southern is 1-3 ATS in its last four CUSA matchups.
MTSU (+9.5, +280) At Nevada
The Blue Raiders haven’t really provided any reasons why they should be trusted. They lost to Austin Peay in Week 1 as a 15.5-point favorite and then lost by 32 to Wisconsin last week.
Still, I think they have the pieces to put together a decent season, and I believe it has to start this week even though they’re tasked with a road trip out west.
Much like MTSU, it’s also hard to trust Nevada, especially to win this game by double digits.
Since 2021, the Blue Raiders are 9-9 ATS versus non-conference opponents.
Texas State (+15.5, +550) At Arizona State
QB Brad Jackson and Texas State’s offense put on a show last week against UTSA in the I-35 showdown. The Bobcats earned a 43-36 victory.
Arizona State fell out of the Associated Press Top 25 following Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State. The Sun Devils haven’t looked as good as anticipated yet this season, and I think the Bobcats have the momentum and offensive potential to keep pace with ASU’s offense.
One thing’s for sure, though — I think the Bobcats must be much better against the run than they were against UTSA and Robert Henry Jr. ASU is averaging 226 rushing YPG.
