We’re a month into the college football season, and there’s important games being played by Group of Five teams this week.
There’s a ton of great G5 programs this year, and all will be vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Here’s my predictions for G5 games in Week 4.
Arkansas vs. Memphis Prediction
I predict Memphis is going to win and cover the seven-point spread. I also project the game is going to go Over 60.5 total points.
Arkansas could end up being a tougher test than some people would’ve expected going into the season. The Razorbacks are 2-1 with their one loss being a 41-35 decision at Ole Miss. Granted, their two wins were against Alabama A&M and Arkansas State.
But I still think Memphis is capable of pulling off an upset, especially at home. The Tigers know what’s at stake in this matchup. If they win, they would be 4-0 before their American Conference slate with a Power Four win. That P4 win would certainly bolster their case for the College Football Playoff.
And with teams like Tulane and USF, which also have P4 wins, in the same conference as well as other G5 teams which have played well thus far, the Tigers need to keep up.
At the very least, Memphis will want to keep this close, and I expect this game to be settled by less than a touchdown.
But I also think this clash will be an offensive shootout. Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis has thrown for 608 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception while rushing for 190 yards and two TDs. But I think he’s getting more comfortable with the Tigers’ offense after transferring from Nevada and that he could have his best game yet in a Memphis uniform.
The Razorbacks’ offense has also looked pretty solid, so I think plenty of points will be scored. But at home, I’m anticipating Memphis’ defense will do just enough to set the Tigers up for a win.
North Texas vs. Army Prediction
I predict North Texas will win and cover the two-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 50.5 total points.
The Mean Green have some talent on offense. There’s no doubt about that. UNT quarterback Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 764 yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions on a 70.2% completion rate. UNT also has three receivers who have double-digit receptions and over 100 yards through the air – Wyatt Young (10 catches for 160 yards), Cameron Dorner (10 catches for 136 yards), and Miles Coleman (11 catches for 108 yards).
But I’m making this pick because UNT has also shown some strides on defense. The Mean Green gave up just 10 points against Washington State last week and have allowed 40 points through three games.
Picking against Army, especially at home, is tough. The Black Knights are also a difficult team to figure out considering they have an FCS loss and a Power Four win.
I’m anticipating some of that inconsistency shows up in a matchup like this, and that North Texas’ offense will put up some points early. That would force Army to play catch-up, and the Black Knights are at their best when the game is close and they can control time of possession.
So I don’t know if UNT’s high-flying offense is a good matchup for Army.
UNLV vs. Miami (Ohio) Prediction
I predict UNLV will win and cover the 2.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 49.5 total points.
Even though this game is on the road, I think the Rebels will control this contest on both sides of the ball. On offense, UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea has shined and has made some timely throws while also hurting teams on the ground. He’s thrown for 647 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception with a 75.4% completion rate. He’s also rushed for 175 yards and a touchdown.
But he’s not UNLV’s only offensive playmaker. Jai’Den Thomas has rushed for 273 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 8.5 yards per carry.
It’s easy to look at UNLV’s game against Idaho State in Week 0, a game where the Rebels struggled and needed to come back to win against an FCS opponent, and think UNLV isn’t that great. You could even point out that though UNLV is 3-0, the Rebels currently haven’t beaten anyone with a single win otherwise.
And that’s true. But it’s also true that UNLV has done everything it’s needed to in order to win, including scoring at least 30 points in each of those matchups.
I think Miami (Ohio) is a solid program, and the RedHawks still may be competitive in the MAC. But their non-conference schedule is brutal, and I don’t expect them to get their first win of the season in this matchup, either.
BYU vs. East Carolina Prediction
I predict East Carolina will win and cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 49.5 total points.
This is a battle between two of the best scoring defenses in the country, so I don’t think this will be a high-scoring affair.
Through two games, BYU has allowed just three points. At 1.5 points per game allowed, the Cougars have the No. 1 scoring defense in the FBS. Meanwhile, East Carolina is 11th in the FBS and first in the Group of Five with nine points per game allowed.
ECU’s defensive front has also been fantastic. The Pirates’ 58.7 rushing yards per game allowed are the seventh-fewest in the nation and the fewest in the G5.
And I think that’s going to limit BYU’s offense. Now, I don’t think ECU’s offense is going to have a great game, either.
But with quarterback Katin Houser, who’s thrown for 973 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception on a 72% completion rate, and wide receiver Anthony Smith, who leads the team with 241 yards on 23 receptions, I do think ECU has enough talent on offense to pull off an upset at home.
JMU vs. Liberty Prediction
I’m picking JMU to win and cover the 8.5-point spread. I’m also projecting the game will go Under 46.5 total points.
I’ve been encouraged by what I’ve seen from JMU, even if the Dukes sputtered on offense in the second half against Louisville. And while the Flames could come back and be competitive against Conference USA teams, I haven’t seen enough from them to think they will keep this game to single digits. Liberty has already lost to Jacksonville State and Bowling Green by 10 points each.
Now, JMU’s offense hasn’t been perfect. The Dukes got out of a rhythm when they went back and forth between Alonza Barnett III and Matthew Sluka at quarterback. But I think that situation will figure itself out, and it could be in this game following a bye week.
This pick is mostly based on what JMU’s defense is capable of. The Dukes are allowing 206 yards per game, and though it’s early in the season, that’s the fewest in the Group of Five and the seventh-fewest in the FBS. JMU is also top 10 in the country with 117.5 passing yards per game allowed.
If JMU’s secondary can make things difficult for Liberty, and if the Dukes can get pressure on the quarterback, I think the Dukes could win by 20 or more points.
UTSA vs. Colorado State Prediction
I predict UTSA will win and cover the 4.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 59.5 total points.
I know that UTSA has a losing record at this point, but the Roadrunners will want to get back on track before beginning American Conference play if they still want to win a league title. And this would be a good game to do that.
Also, the Roadrunners haven’t been bad in their losses. They went on the road and lost to ranked Texas A&M by less than 20 points, and then fell to Texas State, which should be one of the top programs in the Sun Belt, by just a touchdown before defeating Incarnate Word.
I like UTSA’s offense, and I think that unit will shine against Colorado State. Roadrunners quarterback Owen McCown has thrown for 583 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions on a 65% completion rate. Robert Henry Jr. has led the way on the ground, averaging just over 10 yards per carry. He has 480 yards and six touchdowns rushing and has also caught nine passes for 20 yards and another score.
Now, led by quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, I also like Colorado State’s offense. So I think this will be a high-scoring contest.
But I believe UTSA’s offense is just a bit better, even on the road.
Wyoming vs. Colorado Prediction
I predict Colorado will win but Wyoming will cover the 12.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
It’s tempting to pick Wyoming here because Colorado has struggled this season. But now that we know the Buffaloes are going back to Kaidon Salter at quarterback, I think CU’s offense will start making some improvements.
Though, that may not happen against Wyoming’s defense. The Cowboys have played pretty well on that side of the ball, having shut out Akron on the road. Their defense is the strength of their team, and I think they will have an outstanding performance in this matchup.
CU may find a way to win, but I’m anticipating Wyoming will be fantastic in the trenches and will keep it to a one-score game in what will ultimately be a low-scoring contest.
Bowling Green vs. Louisville Prediction
I predict Louisville will win but Bowling Green will cover the 25.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 50.5 total points.
The Falcons have been a pleasant surprise, and I think they’ll continue to surprise some people here.
BGSU has three players – Kaderris Roberts, Cameron Pettaway, and Chris McMillian – who have rushed for at least 100 yards already. They also have three players with at least 100 receiving yards – tight end Jyrin Johnson as well as wide receivers Finn Hogan and RJ Garcia II. With Drew Pyne, who has thrown for 529 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions while completing 67% of his passes, at quarterback, the Falcons have plenty of playmakers they can turn to in order to sustain drives.
But I’m expecting both defenses to be at their best. BGSU is coming off a game where the Falcons limited Liberty to 13 points. Meanwhile, Louisville is averaging 15.5 points per game allowed and is coming off a bye.
That should give Louisville enough time to prepare for Bowling Green. That, and the fact the Cardinals are at home, is why I think Louisville will win. But I anticipate the Cardinals will have to win in a low-scoring battle.
Georgia State vs. Vanderbilt Prediction
I predict Vanderbilt will win but Georgia State will cover the 27.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
Georgia State hasn’t been overly successful this season. The Panthers’ only win so far is against an FCS program. However, they limited the winning margin to 20 points in that contest with Memphis, and I think a similar margin may happen against Vanderbilt.
Remember, Georgia State beat Vanderbilt last year. I don’t know if the Commodores will get upset like that again, but I could see GSU keeping it close.
The Commodores are 3-0 after beating Charleston Southern 45-3, Virginia Tech 44-20, and South Carolina 31-7. They’ve been dominant on both sides of the ball, but I think they could make some mistakes here.
I could see veteran quarterback TJ Finley giving Georgia State some life on offense. I could also see star wide receiver Ted Hurst making some critical plays to keep drives alive for GSU.
And I expect Georgia State will keep this game close until Vanderbilt pulls away in the fourth quarter.
UAB vs. Tennessee Prediction
I predict Tennessee will win but UAB will cover the 39.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 69.5 total points.
Don’t get me wrong. I think Tennessee is the better team and will win by a large margin. But I also think beating any team by that much, even at home, is difficult.
Plus, the Blazers have already won a couple games and have shown some promise. Jalen Kitna has thrown for 892 yards and six touchdowns with just two interceptions while Jevon Jackson has run for 277 yards and three touchdowns.
UAB can move the ball. So while Tennessee may have this game decided by halftime, I think the Blazers will score a few touchdowns as well.
Kent State vs. Florida State Prediction
I predict Florida State will win and cover the 45.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 55.5 total points.
I think it’s possible the Over hits without Kent State scoring a single point in this one.
It’s not like Florida State is a Power Four team that is maybe ranked too high because of preseason expectations. The Seminoles are 2-0 with one of those wins being a 31-17 victory over Alabama. Their other win was a 77-3 game against East Tennessee A&M.
Meanwhile, though Kent State did keep it close against Buffalo at home last week, I don’t think the Golden Flashes will be capable of keeping up on the road at Florida State.
Oregon State vs. Oregon Prediction
I predict Oregon will win and cover the 34.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 56.5 total points.
Oregon is the No. 6-ranked team in the country and has been strong on both sides of the ball. While the Ducks have scored 162 points in their first three games, they’ve given up a mere 30 points on defense.
I expect Oregon State is going to have problems against a team like that on the road.
The Beavers are 0-3 and haven’t been particularly close in any of those matchups. They’ve only scored more than 15 points once in three outings, and that was in their 11-point loss against Fresno State on the road.
It is a rivalry game, so anything can happen. But I don’t think Oregon State is going to keep it close after what we’ve seen from the Beavers so far.
Ball State vs. UConn Prediction
I predict UConn will win and cover the 21.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
At 1-2, it’s easy to look at UConn and think this program has taken a step back. But I think this is where the Huskies will show that they still have a talented team that’s capable of getting to a bowl game in 2025.
UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano has passed for 865 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions while completing 66% of his throws. Cam Edwards has run for 306 yards and three touchdowns on a 6.1 yards-per-carry average. Skyler Bell has caught 22 passes for 332 yards and two scores.
I think those three offensive playmakers for the Huskies are going to thrive here, especially at home.
Temple vs. Georgia Tech Prediction
I predict Georgia Tech will win but Temple will cover the 24-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 52.5 total points.
Georgia Tech is clearly the better team in my opinion. The Yellow Jackets have already beaten Colorado and Clemson this year. But both of those contests were close – the Colorado game being decided by seven points and the Clemson game having a three-point margin – so they haven’t exactly won in blowouts.
And Temple has been surprisingly solid on both sides of the ball aside from the Oklahoma loss. Evan Simon has thrown for 497 yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions on a 67% completion rate.
Will the Owls win? I don’t think so. But I think they could go on the road and give the Yellow Jackets some issues before eventually losing by a couple touchdowns.
Boise State vs. Air Force Prediction
I predict Boise State will win and cover the 11.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 51.5 total points.
On paper, Boise State is not just better than Air Force – the Broncos are significantly better. And I expect that to show.
Air Force has a solid team and still could make a bowl game. But after the Falcons lost the way they did to Utah State, I don’t think they’re in that top tier of Mountain West programs.
The Broncos are, though, in my opinion. And yes, I know they started out with that loss to South Florida. But after USF beat Florida the very next week, I think that game was a reflection of how great USF is and not how bad Boise State is.
The Broncos are also coming off a blowout win over an FCS opponent and a bye week. Even though Boise State is on the road, I think this is a favorable matchup for the Broncos.
I’m anticipating multiple Boise State running backs and wide receivers will have solid performances and that the Broncos will flourish in the trenches en route to a win by 20-plus points.
Washington vs. Washington State Prediction
I predict Washington will win but Washington State will cover the 20.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 52 total points.
I know Washington State is coming off a bad loss against North Texas. But I don’t think that game is reflective of what the Cougars are capable of.
Wazzu quarterback Jaxon Potter has been good but not great. He’s thrown for 604 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 71% completion rate. And that’s with not much of a running game.
But I think he’ll step up in this matchup, especially at home.
And that’s in part because Washington hasn’t been spectacular. Yes, the Huskies beat UC Davis 70-10, but they also beat Colorado State by just 17 points at home.
I still believe the Huskies are the better team. But I also think the Cougars will keep this rivalry matchup close.
Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State Prediction
I predict Mississippi State will win but NIU will cover the 22.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 48.5 total points.
Except for Mississippi State’s 63-0 win over Alcorn State, the Bulldogs have been solid but not spectacular. In fact, I think NIU could have the toughest defense the Bulldogs have seen this year.
NIU has allowed 37 points in two games against Holy Cross and Maryland. Going back to last season, the Huskies have limited their last six opponents to 20 points or less.
The Huskies have been great on defense, and I think they’ll be strong on that side of the ball again against Mississippi State.
Now, I don’t think the Huskies have the offensive capabilities to keep up with the Bulldogs and win. But I believe NIU could end up making this game ugly and will make the Bulldogs earn every point.
