Stop the run. Stop the run. Stop the run.
That was the message Missouri State head coach Ryan Beard said he continued to emphasize to his team throughout the week leading up to last Wednesday’s game against Florida International.
Entering the contest, FIU running back Kejon Owens was the fourth-leading rusher in the FBS at 117.7 yards per game and had 824 yards on the season. The Bears held him to 63 yards — a season low — in the 28-21 victory. It was the first home win over an FBS school in program history.
It was also one of two games played in a 49-day span for the Bears on their home turf at Robert W Plaster Stadium.
The win was the final installment of weekday Conference USA action where MSU went 3-0 against Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, and FIU.
Each of the Bears’ victories came by a touchdown or less, and outside of their 42-10 win over UT Martin in Week 4, their wins have come by a combined 17 points. That includes a quality one-point win over Marshall. Their only league loss came to Western Kentucky by five points, and starting quarterback Jacob Clark left that game in the second quarter with an injury.
MSU has proven it can win when things get tight and is 4-1 in one-possession games this year.
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Now at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in conference play, MSU has a chance to shake up the conference with its upcoming schedule.
This week the Bears visit Liberty before meeting Kennesaw State and Louisiana Tech later this month.
All of these teams are still in the hunt for a trip to the CUSA title game, and I think MSU is capable of knocking them off that path, especially LA Tech, which has already lost two league games.
The Bears shouldn’t be taken lightly. And if Liberty does overlook MSU this week, that could spell trouble for the Flames.
Missouri State’s defense has flourished this season and has only allowed one opponent to score more than 28 points. That came in a 73-13 defeat at USC in Week 1. Subtract that loss, and the Bears are allowing 20.4 points per game.
The Bears have the second-best rush defense in CUSA, allowing 138 yards per game, but will be challenged again this week against Liberty RB Evan Dickens, who is coming off a 217-yard, four-touchdown performance against Delaware.
While a couple players have come close, MSU has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. If the Bears keep it that way, I think they have a good chance of pulling off an upset in Lynchburg.
In its first year competing in the FBS, the move up hasn’t seemed to faze the Bears. If it wasn’t for the NCAA’s FCS-to-FBS transition rules, they’d be in contention for a league championship and one win away from bowl-eligibility. There’s a two-year transition period for programs moving between the subdivisions, and during that span transitioning programs are ineligible for the postseason.
Despite the ineligibility, the Bears are still competing like there’s a trip to a conference title game on the line. And aside from the USC contest, they’ve hung around in every game this year and even led SMU by 10 in Week 3.
They’ve had plenty of different guys step up throughout the season, including true freshman backup QB Deuce Bailey, who led the Bears to their win over MTSU. They have had five different players finish a game as their leading tackler and I would argue have one of the most balanced offenses in the conference.
When listening to Beard, it’s hard to find a coach that emanates the amount of confidence and belief in his players as the third-year head coach does.
It makes it easy to understand why the Bears get the most from so many different players and why they’re already having success in the FBS.
Missouri State vs. Liberty Prediction
I predict Missouri State goes on the road and upsets the Flames. As of this writing, college football betting odds have LU as a 7.5-point favorite.
Liberty is coming off a 59-30 victory over Delaware, which was the best game they’ve played this season. However, I don’t believe the Flames have played much better than MSU throughout the year.
Liberty’s other wins have come over Maine, NMSU, and UTEP.
I think this is another one-possession game for the Bears, and like I mentioned above, they’ve shown they can win in these situations.
