No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games this week:
Western Kentucky vs. LSU Prediction
I predict LSU will win but Western Kentucky will cover the 21.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 50.5 total points.
If the Hilltoppers are going to keep this game close, I anticipate it will be because of their offense. They lead Conference USA in scoring offense with 31.3 points per game and total offense with 432.9 yards per game.
And I think they’ll put up some points in this matchup.
Rodney Tisdale Jr. has taken over as WKU’s starting quarterback after Maverick McIvor was the Day 1 starter and has kept the Hilltoppers playing at a high level. He’s thrown for 1,059 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 72% completion rate while rushing for 123 yards and one TD.
No matter who is at quarterback, WKU has some playmakers. Matthew Henry, who has caught 42 passes for 703 yards and six touchdowns, and KD Hutchinson, who has 542 yards and three TDs on 48 receptions, are the leading receivers for the Hilltoppers.
The Hilltoppers aren’t bad on defense, either. They’re third in CUSA in scoring defense with 23.1 points per game allowed. And LSU’s offense hasn’t exactly been spectacular. The Tigers haven’t scored more than 25 points since they played Southeastern Louisiana back in September.
I still believe LSU will win, but I think WKU can keep it competitive.
North Texas vs. Rice Prediction
I predict North Texas will win but Rice will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 56.5 total points.
The Mean Green have an elite offense. They’re first in the country with 45.3 points per game and fifth with 489.6 yards per contest. I think they have enough talent on that side of the ball to get a win in this matchup.
Drew Mestemaker is UNT’s catalyst on offense. He ranks fifth in the FBS with 3,000 passing yards and seventh with 23 touchdown passes while throwing just four interceptions and completing 69.3% of his passes.
Caleb Hawkins is also flourishing this season. The UNT running back is second in the nation with 16 rushing touchdowns and 16th with 933 yards on the ground.
UNT hasn’t been awful on defense, either. The Mean Green rank fourth in the American in scoring defense with 24.1 points per contest allowed.
But I also don’t think Rice will lose by more than 17 points. The Owls, with their unique option offense, is second in the American in time of possession behind only Army and are fourth in rushing offense with 211.1 yards per game only behind Navy, Army, and South Florida.
I think the Owls can slow down UNT’s offense a little bit and burn time on offense to make this more of a closer, low-scoring game than some may expect.
Tulane vs. Temple Prediction
I predict Tulane will win but Temple will cover the 9.5-point spread. I also project this game will go Under 54.5 total points.
When you look at some of the games Tulane has won, many of them have been close. The Green Wave have undoubtedly battled to get to the point that they’re at. But they haven’t exactly won in blowouts, especially on the road.
Away from home, the Green Wave beat South Alabama 33-31, lost at Ole Miss 45-10, beat Tulsa 31-14, lost at UTSA 48-26, and beat Memphis 38-32. So they’re 3-2 on the road, and only one of those victories was decided by double digits.
Tulane also isn’t necessarily among the best teams on either side of the ball. The Green Wave are ninth in the American in scoring offense (28 points per game) and sixth in scoring defense (26 PPG allowed).
Then again, neither is Temple. The Owls are eighth in scoring offense (29.6 PPG) and sixth in scoring defense (26 PPG allowed). They are fifth in total defense (375.1 yards per game allowed) while Tulane is 12th (412.3 YPG allowed). In total offense, Tulane is seventh (412.6 YPG) while Temple is 11th (361.8 YPG).
I do think Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff and wide receivers Shazz Preston, Bryce Bohanon, and Omari Hayes, as well as defensive back Jack Tchienchou and Bailey Despanie and linebacker Chris Rodgers have been stellar. They are capable of leading Tulane to a win. But I foresee this game being a close matchup.
Washington State vs. JMU Prediction
I predict JMU will win and cover the 13.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 42.5 total points.
I don’t think Wazzu is a bad team. And I think the Cougars could earn a bowl bid next week when they get a rematch with Oregon State. But the Dukes are the best team in the G5, in my opinion, and are highly motivated to not just win at home but to blow out a team like WSU.
Alonza Barnett III, after not playing his best early in the season, has found a rhythm. He has thrown for 2,089 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions on a 62% completion rate. He’s also rushed for 396 yards and 12 TDs.
Wayne Knight leads JMU with 840 yards and seven TDs rushing while catching a team-best 35 passes for 368 yards and one score. Landon Ellis has caught 32 passes for a JMU-high 532 yards and five TDs.
The Dukes are also 11th in the FBS in scoring defense (13.7 points per game allowed) and fifth in total defense (257.1 yards per game allowed). Trent Hendrick leads them with 76 tackles to go with three sacks.
The Dukes are one of five teams in the FBS that are top 15 in the country in scoring offense and scoring defense. Those other four teams – Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas Tech – are in the CFP bracket as things stand right now.
The Dukes are fantastic on both sides of the ball, and I think they show it once again at home against the Cougars.
Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina Prediction
I predict South Carolina will win but CCU will cover the 24-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 49.5 total points.
I might have picked Coastal Carolina to win if I knew quarterback Samari Collier was healthy for this game. But the Chanticleers quarterback suffered an injury last week against Georgia Southern, and it appears he won’t be back for this game.
But I still expect Coastal Carolina will make this a close contest.
On offense, CCU is top five in the Sun Belt in rushing offense with 194 yards per game on the ground. And while part of that is because of Collier, the Chanticleers have good enough running backs to help them sustain drives. That includes Ja’Vin Simpkins, who has rushed for 536 yards and two touchdowns on a 5.3 yards-per-carry average.
And on defense, CCU is top five in the Sun Belt in pass defense efficiency. I think that secondary will help the Chanticleers limit quarterback LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina passing attack.
I don’t expect CCU to win. But I do think the Chanticleers have what it takes to make South Carolina earn a two-touchdown win.
Jacksonville State vs. FIU Prediction
I predict FIU will win and cover the 1.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 56.5 total points.
This is a battle between two top-five offenses in Conference USA.
The Gamecocks are second in CUSA in scoring offense (30.4 points per game) and third in total offense (417.7 yards per game). The Panthers are fourth in scoring offense (28.8 PPG) and fifth in total offense (391.4 YPG).
Even though Jacksonville State has won more often this season, I think FIU has started to find its stride. That’s even while Group of Five Preseason All-American quarterback Keyone Jenkins has been sidelined with an injury and Joe Pesansky has been starting at quarterback the last two games.
But no matter who starts at QB, I like how the Panthers have played on both sides of the ball.
FIU running back Kejon Owens has been electric. He’s eighth in the country with 1,039 yards, tied for 29th with 10 touchdown runs, and 38th with 6.1 yards per rush. Alex Perry leads the Panthers with 567 yards and six touchdowns on 42 catches.
At home, I think FIU scores too often for Jacksonville State to keep up.
