The Mountain West title race is wide open heading into the final week of the regular season.
Seven teams are still in the hunt, even if a few are hanging on by a thread. The championship game will be held on Dec. 5 at the higher-ranked of the two teams with the best winning percentage against conference opponents. The Mountain West did away with its two divisions in 2023.
San Diego State (9-2, 6-1 Mountain West) and Boise State (7-4, 5-2) are the only teams that control their own destinies. If they both win this weekend, the Broncos will travel to Snapdragon Stadium for the title game. Neither is necessarily out if they lose this weekend, either.
Boise State has won the championship the past two seasons, and the Broncos are the league’s all-time leader with five titles since 2014. BYU, TCU, and Utah all won four before leaving the league.
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San Diego State hasn’t played in the title game since 2021, and the Aztecs haven’t won it since claiming back-to-back titles in 2015 and 2016. They also won a share of the title in 2012. The Mountain West began holding a championship game in 2013.
UNLV (9-2, 5-2) is still in the hunt for its third straight appearance in the championship game. But like New Mexico (8-3, 5-2), Utah State (6-5, 4-3), Fresno State (7-4, 4-3), and Hawaii (7-4, 4-3), the Rebels need to win this weekend and get some help to make the title game.
Here’s a look at the Mountain West Championship betting odds, and each team’s path to the title game.
Mountain West Football Championship Betting Odds
San Diego State is the college football betting odds favorite to win the Mountain West Championship on BetMGM. The Aztecs lead the top four contenders with +145 odds. New Mexico is next with a +270, followed by UNLV (+280) and Boise State (+425).
Boise State & San Diego State In The Driver’s Seat
There’s a reason the Aztecs are the odds-on favorites to win their fourth Mountain West title. They’ve won eight of their past nine games thanks in large part to a defense that is tied for No. 2 in the nation in points allowed (11.6 points per game allowed). They’re also No. 16 in the country in rushing defense (103.2 yards per game allowed) and No. 6 in total defense (262.9 YPG allowed).
San Diego State’s lone conference loss was a 38-6 shocker at Hawaii. The Aztecs own head-to-head wins over Boise State and Fresno State.
Their mission this weekend sounds simple: win and they’re in. Of course, both of the Aztecs’ losses this season have come on the road, and they play at New Mexico, which has championship aspirations of its own.
If San Diego State loses this weekend, it can still get in if both Boise State and UNLV lose. In that case, the Aztecs would travel to New Mexico for the championship game. If the Aztecs lose but UNLV and Boise State win, a four-way tiebreaker will be decided by computer metrics. The same is true if San Diego State and UNLV lose and Boise State wins.
If head-to-head results and College Football Playoff rankings don’t break a tie, the Mountain West uses the average of four computer ranking systems: Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix, Wolfe, and Massey.
Boise State is in the title game if it beats Utah State on Saturday on the road, San Diego State wins, and UNLV loses.
Mountain West Tiebreaker Scenarios
New Mexico really belongs in the top tier of title contenders, but the Lobos need to find some help in some unlikely places. They can host the championship with a win this weekend, but they need Boise State and UNLV to lose. The Broncos could fall at Utah State, but it will take a major upset for Nevada (3-8, 2-5) to knock off the Rebels.
New Mexico will also host if it beats San Diego State, UNLV wins, and Boise State loses. In that case, computer metrics will decide if they face the Aztecs or Rebels.
Computer metrics will also be used if one of the following four scenarios plays out. In each, San Diego State would host the championship game:
- Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV, and Utah State all finish the season 5-3 in conference play.
- Boise State, Fresno State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Utah State all finish the season 5-3 in conference play.
- Boise State, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV, and Utah State all finish the season 5-3 in conference play.
- Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV, and Utah State all finish the season 5-3 in conference play.
Fresno State wraps up the regular season Saturday at San Jose State (3-8, 2-5). Hawaii hosts Wyoming (4-7, 2-5) on Saturday.
