This year has been another entertaining season in Conference USA, and that shouldn’t change in the final week of the regular season.
There’s still plenty to be ironed out when determining who will play in the CUSA Championship and who will host.
That includes the matchup between Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, where two of the best offenses in the league will meet with a trip to the title game on the line.
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Conference USA Championship Game Scenarios
Entering the weekend, there is a three-way tie at the top of CUSA with Western Kentucky, Jax State, and Kennesaw State all sitting at 6-1 in conference play. One noteworthy item is that WKU and KSU haven’t played this year.
Jax State vs. WKU
The winner of WKU and Jax State will clinch a spot in the title game. If KSU loses to Liberty and Jax State loses to WKU, then the Hilltoppers and Gamecocks will meet in the championship.
This is because Jax State and KSU would both be 6-2 and Jax State owns the head-to-head with a Week 11 win over the Owls. WKU would host the championship in this scenario.
KSU vs. Jax State
If WKU and KSU lose, they will both be 6-2 and, per the CUSA tiebreaker regulations, whoever has the highest winning percentage against shared conference opponents will be selected. KSU will own the tiebreaker because it will be 5-1 against common opponents (Jax State, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Missouri State, and New Mexico State) compared to WKU’s 4-2.
If Jax State and KSU win, they will play in the title game and Jax State will host because of its head-to-head victory.
KSU vs. WKU
If WKU and KSU win, they will play for the CUSA title. They would also have the same record versus common opponents (5-1), but WKU would have the better record against the team(s) with the next-best conference records (which would be Jax State and Missouri State if it wins), meaning WKU would host.
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Betting Odds
WKU is a 2.5-point college football betting odds favorite against Jacksonville State, as of this writing. The Over/Under is at 55.5 and the moneyline is -130 for WKU and -110 for Jax State.
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State On TV
The matchup between Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State will be televised on ESPN+. The game will kick off at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 29, at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama.
WKU Preview
A midseason quarterback change didn’t alter WKU’s already-potent offense. Maverick McIvor was forced to miss a short amount of time with a shoulder injury, and Rodney Tisdale Jr. started in his place.
However, the Hilltoppers have chosen to stick with Tisdale as the starter despite McIvor being available the past few weeks.
Since taking over as QB1, the redshirt freshman has passed for 256.8 yards per game and has eight touchdowns — nine on the year — and five interceptions. In those four games, WKU is averaging 28.8 points per game. It is averaging 29.4 points and 407.4 yards per game on the season.
WKU has gone 3-1 with Tisdale as the starter and is coming off a 13-10 loss to LSU.
Matthew Henry is the team’s leading wideout and ranks third in the conference with 719 yards and has six TDs. KD Hutchinson has 582 yards and three scores on 56 receptions. Marvis Parrish’s 459 yards on the ground pace the Hilltoppers, but he has yet to score a TD while La’Vell Wright has rushed for eight scores.
WKU’s defense has been stout for most of the season and is surrendering 22.2 PPG and 392.5 YPG. The Hilltoppers have struggled getting to opposing QBs this year, though, and have a league-low 14 sacks. It’ll be even more difficult to create negative plays against Jax State and its elusive, run-first QB.
Linebacker Jaylen Wester leads WKU with 81 total tackles. Jaylen Lewis has chipped in with 59 tackles, three tackles for loss, three pass breakups, and two interceptions.
Jacksonville State Preview
The Gamecocks’ five-game win streak was snapped last week with a 27-21 loss at FIU. It was the fourth one-possession conference game Jax State has played in. It won the other three.
In the win, the Gamecocks rushed for 251 yards including 138 yards from running back Cam Cook. The junior leads the FBS with 1,444 rushing yards and his 14 TDs are tied for fourth-most.
QB Caden Creel complements Cook nicely with his ability to use his legs and keep defenses off balance. Creel’s 75.5 rushing YPG rank fifth in the league. He is averaging 94 passing YPG. In four of Jax State’s games, Cook and Creel have both rushed for at least 100 yards.
Wide receiver Deondre Johnson has found his stride lately and has caught five TDs in the past four games. He’s provided a downfield presence the Gamecocks need as defenses continue to load the box to try and stop the run. The average distance of his touchdown receptions is 50.6 yards.
Behind its rushing attack, Jax State leads the conference in scoring (29.5 PPG) and total offense (420.5 YPG).
Defensively, the Gamecocks haven’t allowed a team to score more than 27 points since their Week 5 loss to Southern Miss. They’re surrendering 26.1 points and 398.5 yards per game. The Gamecocks have forced 19 turnovers this season.
Linebackers Walker O’Steen and Mac Sanders lead the team with 63 tackles apiece. Sanders, a freshman, also has a team-high eight tackles for loss.
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Prediction
I predict Jacksonville State will win and therefore cover the 2.5-point spread.
I think Jax State grinds out a win behind its ground game. It’s hard to pick against WKU and head coach Tyson Helton, but the Hilltoppers’ rushing defense hasn’t been great against the run and is giving up 171 YPG and 4.9 yards per carry.
Slowing down Creel and Cook is a key to a WKU win, and I don’t know if the Hilltoppers will be able to do that on the road.
