Miami (Ohio) has been one of the biggest storylines in college basketball this season.
The No. 24-ranked RedHawks remain undefeated at 20-0 and are coming off back-to-back overtime wins over Buffalo and Kent State, where they improved to 8-0 in MAC play. They’ve scored 100 or more points in three consecutive games.
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Every night they’re going to get their opponents’ best game, and tonight it’ll be Massachusetts (13-8, 4-5) that’ll be the one to try and hand Miami its first loss of the season. The Minutemen have won two in a row with a two-point win over Toledo and a one-point win over Buffalo last Friday.
All nine of UMass’ conference games have been decided by 10 points or less, and six have been decided by one basket. We’ll see if tonight’s contest is another close one.
UMass at Miami (OH) Odds
As of this writing, Miami is a 9.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against UMass while the Over/Under is 164.5 points.
The Moneyline for Miami is -500 and +375 for UMass.
UMass at Miami (OH) on TV
The matchup between UMass and Miami (OH) will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET.
UMass at Miami (OH) Prediction
I predict Miami covers the 9.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 164.5 points.
I want to back UMass in this game because I expect the Minutemen will come out eager to end Miami’s streak, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to stymie the RedHawks’ offense enough to keep this game close.
Miami has one of the best offenses in the country, and its adjusted offensive efficiency of 124.2 and effective field-goal percentage of 61.8% in league games both rank at the top of the MAC, per KenPom. It is averaging 94.2 points per game, its 3-point percentage of 41.2% is the third-best in the country, and the 11.4 3-pointers made per game are the ninth-most.
Nearly every guy is capable of scoring from anywhere on the court. Led by Brant Byers’ 15.3 PPG, the RedHawks have five players averaging double-figures, and this doesn’t include Evan Ipsaro, who was averaging 13.9 PPG prior to his season-ending injury.
Six-foot-5 senior guard Peter Suder has scored 64 points over his last two games and is averaging 14.1 PPG and shooting 57.6% from the field.
UMass is only allowing 29.2% from outside and could disrupt Miami’s 3-ball, but the shooting threat Miami has sucks defenses out of the paint and allows for easy drives to the rim and open cuts to an empty middle of the floor. It also creates more free-throw opportunities, where the RedHawks are shooting 80.1%.
This is an area that I think could really hurt UMass in this game — allowing the RedHawks opportunities at the stripe. The Minutemen have allowed 517 free-throw attempts this season, which is the most in the league.
They also struggle to take care of the ball at times and are turning it over on 18.1% of possessions.
You can’t allow Miami any extra opportunities to score because it’ll take advantage of them.
The RedHawks like to play fast, whip the ball around, and have great spacing. It consistently keeps defenses off-balance. I think UMass has the athleticism to guard Miami’s style of play, but I worry about the potential of the Minutemen allowing too many extra opportunities.
Miami has surrendered 100+ points in its last two games — albeit OT games — so we’ve seen that they can be somewhat vulnerable defensively. Kent State especially had success getting the ball to its big men on the block.
UMass forward Leonardo Bettiol is capable of doing some damage inside and leads the Minutemen with 17.1 PPG, but he’ll need a big game for UMass to pull the upset. Marcus Banks Jr. adds 16.2 PPG, and freshman point guard Danny Carbuccia is second in the MAC with six assists per game.
The Minutemen are gritty and have given themselves a chance to win almost every game they’ve played this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re hanging around late in this one.
However, I think the areas UMass struggles in will play into the RedHawks’ hands, and they’ll extend their win streak to 21.
