After a 6-0 start to West Coast Conference play, Saint Mary’s has lost two of its last five games, with both losses coming to the top two teams in the conference, Santa Clara and Gonzaga.
It’s unusual for the Gaels (20-4, 9-2) to be in third place in the WCC standings at this time of the season, but with Gonzaga and Santa Clara both having one conference loss, there’s still a chance for SMC to clinch a regular-season title.
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San Francisco (14-11, 6-6) has had an up-and-down season and suffered two two-point conference losses to Loyola Marymount and Gonzaga. USF also lost to the Gaels on Jan. 14.
The Dons had one of their best showings of the season last Saturday against Pacific, but struggled to maintain that momentum with a home loss to LMU on Tuesday.
San Francisco at Saint Mary’s Odds
As of this writing, Saint Mary’s is an 11.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against San Francisco, while the Over/Under is 142.5 points.
The Moneyline for SMC is -675 and +490 for USF.
San Francisco at Saint Mary’s on TV
The matchup between San Francisco and Saint Mary’s will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 11:30 p.m. ET.
San Francisco at Saint Mary’s Prediction
I predict Saint Mary’s covers the 11.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 142.5 points.
It’s not easy to score on this Gaels team, especially in the paint. They have a ton of size on the interior with 7-foot-3 Andrew McKeever and 7-foot-1 Harry Wessels.
In league games, SMC is only allowing 65.1 points per game and 42.4% from the field. It also only allows opponents to shoot 31.1% from the outside.
The Dons have a solid inside presence in 6-foot-9 junior David Fuchs, but I think the Gaels will make it difficult for him to get to his spots. USF is only shooting 47.5% from the field, but is scoring 77.5 PPG.
Ryan Beasley leads the Dons with 14.4 PPG and 3.7 assists per game. Tyrone Riley IV and Fuchs are both averaging 11.6 PPG, while Fuchs grabs 6.8 rebounds per game.
Saint Mary’s size should also allow it to generate a ton of paint touches on the other end of the floor, which helps open up looks on the outside for the Gaels’ methodical offense.
SMC plays at the slowest pace in the league and works through its offense to find clean looks, especially from the perimeter. Its 227 3-point attempts in conference games are the lowest in the WCC, but its 41% from 3 is the best mark in the league. The Gaels’ adjusted offensive efficiency of 119.5 is the second-best in the WCC.
Junior forward Paulius Murauskas leads the Gaels with 18.7 PPG and grabs 7.1 RPG. Mikey Lewis and Joshua Dent headline a terrific backcourt, with Dent averaging 13.1 points and 5.3 assists per game while Lewis averages 12.7 PPG. The Gaels are averaging 78.4 PPG.
I don’t think SMC will have any issues offensively against USF, but it’ll be the Gaels’ stout defense that is most impactful and what carries them to a comfortable home win here.
