Welcome to the HERO Sports FCS Mailbag. In partnership with FCS Football Fans Nation, we'll ask for questions with a post on their Facebook page and our senior staff members Brian McLaughlin and Sam Herder will provide answers.
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Joshua Hofman – I know this may be a week early, but what if SDSU-NDSU was like the Iron Bowl and played on the last week of the year?
Brian: Oh man … Josh, do I ever WISH this one could be a season-finale affair. The weekend before Thanksgiving, one day before Selection Sunday. Why not right? How many years now has this one been massive down the stretch? And changed the whole balance of the playoff seeding? I'd love to see that. I think it's a great idea. And as a 44-year-old who has watched the Iron Bowl every year since I was like 10 years old (and my Uncle and Aunt moved to Montgomery and we'd watch it on or after Thanksgiving?) … yeah, can we just do this?
Sam: I think the final week of the regular season should be when big rivalries are played. Absolutely. The stakes for NDSU-SDSU would always be so high and would make for a fantastic game. Just look at Montana-Montana State. Last year, that was essentially a playoff play-in game. And this season, the postseason implications in the Brawl of the Wild are going to be huge. Let's do the same for the Jacks and the Bison.
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Jacob Martinez – What do you think the odds are that VMI gets a winning record this season? I love stories like them!
Brian: Jacob, I'm just like you. VMI, Tennessee Tech and Houston Baptist — to me — are the big Cinderella stories of the FCS in 2019, just like Austin Peay was in 2017 when it broke the 29-game losing streak and went on to finish 8-4 with three FBS losses. VMI hasn't had a winning season since the year Ronald Reagan took the oath of office (1981 for those scurrying for an Almanac). That's a long, long time. The odds? Not real, real good with one of the best Army teams since the 1950s on the sked, along with SoCon front-runner Furman and a surging Chattanooga team. The next two weeks will be interesting at Mercer (50-50 game) and with a downtrodden Western Carolina team coming to VMI. I think the whole thing pivots on Chattanooga traveling to VMI in the season finale. 'Nooga had better be ready. How big do you think it'd be at VMI if the Keydets are 6-3 after the next two weeks … and the 'Nooga game at home in the finale is for the first winning season since 1981? Now that would be a massive story in the FCS.
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Steve Anderson – Midway through the season who are the contenders and who are the pretenders since teams like UCD, Maine and EWU don’t appear to be as good as we thought?
Brian: The usual suspects are at the top — NDSU, JMU, SDSU. I think some of the other potential contenders, at full strength (I'm talking about Villanova specifically), are Nova, Furman, Montana and Weber State (defense wins championships). I don't believe there are any "pretenders" when I vote each week for the Top 25. I put 'em where I think they deserve to be. Not in the business to trash programs. If I don't think you're top 10, I'll vote you accordingly.
Sam: I think the pretenders have been weeded out a bit at this point in the season. When I think of pretenders, I think of teams being discussed in the national title picture that ended up not deserving to be in that discussion. Right now, I see three teams as legit national title contenders: NDSU, JMU and SDSU. Montana and Villanova are right on the fringe of joining that group. Then there are teams like Weber State, Furman, Nicholls and Sacramento State that are really good but haven't given me a reason yet to put them in that top tier.
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Scott Moody – We are halfway through the 12 game season. What do you think is going to be the minimum win total for a team from each conference to make the playoffs as an at-large?
Brian: I think for the clear Top Three (Big Sky, CAA, MVFC) that 8 wins is a lock and maybe even 7 wins is possible. For the next grouping (OVC, SoCon, Southland and yes, this year with the Big South) … they need to hit the 9-win mark to be a lock to make the playoffs, and 8 wins depending on the circumstances gets you in. With this 12-game anomaly, I think that's what you'll see.
Sam: Awesome question! I think any team from the Big Sky, CAA and MVFC that has eight D1 wins should feel pretty good about their playoff chances. Seven D1 wins gives them a chance, depending on who they beat. For the OVC and the SoCon, it will have to be 9-10 D1 wins. And I do think some Southland teams could get in with eight D1 wins depending on the strength of schedule, but nine is a good number to hit. I don't see the Big South getting an at-large team in, same with the Pioneer, Patriot and NEC.
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Jim Herian – Is EWU the most overrated team coming into a season in this decade?
Brian: Nah, let's lay off EWU. I think we all bit too hard on the Eags. They lost a ton of talent, and I was standing outside that locker room in Frisco and knew that, and I still bit too hard on EWU. Last year's team was a senior-laden situation. We at HERO Sports? We saw it coming. Maybe not Frisco level, but we knew that the 2018 Eags would be loaded and they proved to be. Look, they're rebuilding. Don't be surprised if this team hits the 7-win mark and reloads for 2020 and is a factor like it usually is.
Sam: The Eagles have been disappointing this season, and even their players, coaches and fans will say that. But we probably put too high of expectations on this team. While the returning talent was impressive, there's just not many FCS programs that can graduate 20-something seniors and be just as good as they were the previous year. Teams at this level don't have that kind of depth. But let's remember that EWU's season isn't done. The Eagles have a bye week and if they can upset Montana on Oct. 26, all of a sudden we're looking at an EWU team that can finish the regular season on a big winning streak. EWU was preseason ranked No. 4 and still has a decent shot to make the playoffs. Obviously the team isn't living up to those massive preseason expectations, but that happens every year. UNH was ranked No. 6 heading into the 2018 season and finished 4-7. In 2017, Richmond, North Dakota, Youngstown State and Villanova were preseason ranked No. 7-10. None of them made the playoffs. So this isn't a foreign thing that's happening to EWU this year.
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NEXT: Top 15 Favorites To Win The National Title After Week 7
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