With NFL Training Camp just days away, lets take a look at how the 2017 season will start in terms of player performance and rankings.
In the AFC West, it's a division with mixed quarterback scenarios. There are three established starters, two of them long-time veterans and one of them with a highly-drafted rookie sitting behind him on the depth chart now. There is one situation unsettled with a first-round pick challenging another young QB for the job.
MORE: Top AFC West RBs | AFC South RB Rankings | AFC South QB Rankings
4. Trevor Siemian — Denver Broncos
59.5 %, 3,401 YDS, 18 TD, 10 INT
Siemian had a similar season statistically to Marcus Mariota (61.2 %, 3,426 YDS, 26 TD, 9 INT) who is receiving tons of attention as a potential future star. That isn't to say Siemian is on the same path, but he was far from awful in his first year as a starter.
Paxton Lynch, a 2016 first-round pick, is competing for the job, too, however, so it's no sure thing Siemian gets season two. The smartest best may be that he does, with Lynch breaking into the lineup mid-season.[divider]
3. Alex Smith — Kansas City Chiefs
67.1 %, 3,502 YDS, 15 TD, 8 INT
Smith isn't the prolific passer of the two ranked ahead of him, nor does he carry the future potential of Siemian or Lynch — Smith is 33 — but he's incredibly efficient and is very adept at using his legs to extend plays and pick up key first downs.
He will be pressed, at some point, by first-round pick Patrick Mahomes II, but whether or not that takes places in 2017 or is more of a 2018 venture remains to be seen.[divider]
2. Philip Rivers — Los Angeles Chargers
60.4 %, 4,386 YDS, 33 TD, 21 INT
Rivers, 35, was fifth in passing yards last season but for the second time in his career (2011) he threw 20 or more interceptions. He still, however, managed a solid QBR (66.3, ahead of Carr, Wilson, Dalton, Flacco, Newton, etc) and put up his best AV in three years.
Rivers developed a nice rapport with Hunter Henry, who may be the hair apparent to Antonio Gates. Henry caught 36 balls and eight scores in 2016. Gates was still a factor — 53 catches 7 TD — and with Melvin Gordon offering a legit threat in the running game, rookie WR Mike Williams adds another big-time target for Rivers.[divider]
1. Derek Carr — Oakland Raiders
63.8 %, 3,937 YDS, 28 TD, 6 INT
Carr, 26, made huge strides in 2015 and took a step further a year ago. He's one of the top 8-10 QBs in the NFL (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Carr, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins in some order?) and may threaten the elite with more progress.
A big part of Carr's progress has come with success throwing the ball downfield to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, as reflected in his YPA progression.
He also got paid this offseason, so no contract situation will linger for Carr and the Raiders. Another Pro Bowl caliber season is inevitable — provided he's fully recovered from injury — and there's certainly a chance he's in the MVP conversation.
Clearly Carr surpassed Rivers within the last two seasons. All that's missing is the postseason success, which is something Rivers has struggled to find, too.
