Each year of the FCS playoffs, there is always one side of the bracket that is tougher than the other. Reasons for that vary from regionalization to 10-1 teams from weaker conferences being seeded higher than 9-2 teams from stronger conferences.
[divider]COMPARE: NDSU vs. SHSU | JMU vs. SDSU[divider]
In 2015, the national championship appeared to happen in the quarterfinals when Northern Iowa visited North Dakota State in the Bison’s closest game of the postseason. Last year, James Madison probably should have been the No. 3 seed instead of No. 4 and ended up playing NDSU in the semifinals instead of in Frisco. And this year, JMU got the No. 1 seed, but the tougher draw. The Dukes face No. 5 South Dakota State in the semifinals. SDSU should have been the No. 3 seed, but instead have to go to the top seed’s place instead of No. 2 NDSU.
Fair or not, it seems like the No. 1 seed has gotten the tougher road the last couple of seasons. That’s just the way things have shaken out. One thing that is fair to say, though, is that the four teams in the semifinals all deserve to be there. No one has snuck in. JMU, NDSU, SDSU and Sam Houston State can all be considered “blue bloods” in the FCS. In other words, programs that have had consistent success and are always in the discussion as top teams in the subdivision.
Each team has an argument for being favorites to win the national championship. And the teams are in different stages than the others.
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James Madison
Seed: 1
Record: 13-0
Playoff wins: Stony Brook (26-7), Weber State (31-28)
State of the Dukes: JMU has always been a talented team that routinely made the playoffs. It wasn’t until Mike Houston began as head coach in 2016 when the Dukes changed their style of play. A more physical, defensive-minded approach took them to the top right away. They snapped NDSU’s streak of five straight national championships and are now the top team in the FCS.
Why they’ll win it all: Houston has never lost to an FCS team since wearing the JMU headset. Yes, the Dukes showed vulnerabilities last week against Weber State and things really looked to be unraveling in the fourth quarter. But JMU found a way to win. While some may point to this as a reason the Dukes aren’t good enough to beat SDSU or NDSU, JMU sees this as a confidence booster and a wake-up call.
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North Dakota State
Seed: 2
Record: 12-1
Playoff wins: San Diego (38-3), No. 7 Wofford (42-10)
State of the Bison: The power in the FCS and national love has shifted from NDSU to JMU. A lot of headlines said the Bison dynasty had ended with their semifinal loss in 2016. But NDSU looks like a much better team this season than last. And national championship expectations are as high as ever. The Bison are out to prove that last year was just a chink in the armor and the dynasty is still going strong.
Why they’ll win it all: A lot of people talk about NDSU’s No. 1 ranking in total defense. But people forget the Bison have the No. 2 scoring offense in the FCS at 39.2 points per game. The Bison are the most balanced team in the FCS right now. And it looks right now to be the best team they’ve had since 2013.
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South Dakota State
Seed: 5
Record: 11-2
Playoff wins: Northern Iowa (37-22), New Hampshire (56-14)
State of the Jackrabbits: SDSU has made the playoffs every season since 2012. Last year was a program first when the Jacks earned a seed and made the quarterfinals. They’ve taken it a step further this year with their first trip to the semifinals. SDSU has had great teams that have had the misfortune of running into NDSU early in the postseason. The 2014 team was no doubt good enough to win a national championship. This year, the Jacks have their most talented team in school history. They avoid NDSU (which they handled earlier this season anyway) and are one win away from their ultimate goal of playing in Frisco, Texas.
Why they’ll win it all: While the Bison can be considered the most balanced team in the FCS, the Jacks aren’t far behind with a much-improved defense and a terrific offense. As far as the hottest team entering the playoffs, it was no doubt the Jacks. They handled UNH and were up 21-0 after the first quarter. For score comparisons, JMU defeated UNH 21-0 earlier this year. SDSU faces a great JMU secondary, but Weber State exposed some weaknesses in downfield passes that Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert can take advantage of. Dukes quarterback Bryan Schor has also been hit or pressured quite a bit, and the Jacks have shown they aren’t afraid to bring heavy blitzes in big games.
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Sam Houston State
Seed: 6
Record: 12-1
Playoff wins: South Dakota (54-42), Kennesaw State (34-27)
State of the Bearkats: SHSU is the second best program in the FCS since 2011. Two national championship appearances, a quarterfinal appearance and now three trips to the semifinals back that up. The problem is the Bearkats have been exposed and blown out in their playoff losses the last three years. That’s a big reason why not many people outside of Texas are giving them a chance against the Bison.
Why they’ll win it all: While many aren’t giving them a chance, there’s also a good chance the Bearkats are being underrated this season. Yes, the team continues to play great offense while allowing points in the 30s and 40s and giving up total yards in the 500s. But all SHSU needs to do is have an above average game defensively and the offense can take care of itself. Jeremiah Briscoe is the top NFL quarterback prospect in the FCS. He has three wide receivers that all had arguments to be the Southland Conference Offensive Player of the Year. Once this team gets rolling, they are hard to stop. This is the best SHSU team since 2011, a team that narrowly lost in the title game. If there’s a Bearkat team to get over the hump, it’ll be this one.
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NEXT: FCS PLAYOFFS: Predicting the Weekend's Semifinals Winners
