Toledo (8-6 overall, 2-0 in MAC play) enters this matchup off of two consecutive close wins. However, both came against conference foes who are among the lower echelon in the MAC in Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan.
On the other side, Central Michigan (6-8, 0-2) enters this one coming off a pair of losses, but those came against the two best teams in the league in Ohio and Akron. The latter being an 87-71 defeat to the Zips on the road on Tuesday.
College basketball betting odds currently have CMU at +4000 to win the MAC regular-season title while the Rockets are +700 to win the league. Despite the vast difference in expectations, I anticipate the Chippewas to keep this game close.
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Central Michigan at Toledo Betting Odds
Toledo is a 4.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Central Michigan while the Over/Under is at 151.5.
The Moneyline for Toledo is at -190 and at +155 for Central Michigan.
Central Michigan at Toledo On TV
The matchup between Central Michigan and Toledo will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 8 p.m. ET.
Central Michigan at Toledo Prediction
I predict Central Michigan to cover the +4.5-point spread. I also predict the game to go over 151.5 points.
I think CMU’s most recent loss to Akron might be having a strong influence on this line. And I’m not saying it shouldn’t, but the Chippewas just ran into a better team that played better that night.
I don’t think the Rockets are quite as good as the Zips.
Toledo has one of the worst scoring defenses in the league and is allowing 77.9 points per game. The Rockets are allowing teams to shoot 56% from inside the arc and allowing a 54.6% effective field goal percentage. They just gave up 87 points to an underwhelming EMU offense.
The Rockets had no problem knocking down shots against EMU, namely from the 3-point line where they shot 44%. I’ll chalk that up as a discrepancy as the Rockets are the worst in the MAC in 3-point percentage (33%).
I don’t expect Toledo to shoot the ball that well again, especially against a CMU defense that allows teams to shoot a league-best 30% from the outside. The Chippewas also have the second-best scoring defense, allowing 70.9 points per outing.
I anticipate the Chippewas to have no problems controlling the glass behind Jakobi Heady and Ugnius Jarusevicius and to limit Toledo’s second-chance opportunities.
My one concern for the Chippewas is that they turn the ball over a lot, averaging nearly 15 per game (21% of their possessions). Compared to Toledo, who only turns it over 9.6 times per game. This is where I worry about Toledo scoring and going on runs.
CMU needs to take care of the ball and find quality shots, something I don’t think they’ve done a great job of doing recently. If they can do that, then they have a chance to pull off the road upset here.
I also don’t know if there will be a huge home-court advantage tonight. I’m sure plenty of people in Ohio will be watching another game instead. Regardless, the Rockets are just 1-4 against the spread at home this season.
