Dayton will look to bounce back from a 22-point loss to St. Bonaventure with a win tonight at Saint Louis.
The loss summed up the Flyers’ conference season so far — inconsistent. At one point, the Flyers were 10-2, with their only losses coming to North Carolina and Iowa State at the Maui Invitational. Now, they’re 14-7 and 4-4 in Atlantic 10 play.
Saint Louis (13-8, 6-2) is coming off a 78-69 win over VCU where the Billikens were 5.5-point underdogs. They’ve won three of their last four and are tied for second in the league standings with VCU. The Flyers are tied for third in the league with four other squads.
Dayton at Saint Louis Odds
Dayton is a 1.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Saint Louis while the Over/Under is at 144.5.
The Moneyline for Dayton is at -125 and at +105 for Saint Louis.
Dayton at Saint Louis On TV
The matchup between Dayton and Saint Louis will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Dayton at Saint Louis Prediction
I predict Dayton will find a way to win here on the road. I also predict for this game to go under 144.5 points.
This seems like it’ll be a letdown spot for SLU off its big win over VCU, while it’s hard to imagine Dayton plays as badly as it did against the Bonnies for the second consecutive game, especially offensively.
The Flyers like to get out in transition as much as possible, which is an area they thrive. In their last game, the Flyers had zero fastbreak points. That’s the only time that’s happened this season. They average 12.4 fastbreak points per game and force a turnover on 19.8% of opponents’ possessions in conference play, per KenPom. That’s the second-best mark in the league.
Saint Louis turns the ball over on 20.4% of its possessions, which is the second-highest mark in the A-10. It’ll be key for the Flyers to take advantage of the Billikens’ miscues and run the floor.
Dayton is the best 3-point shooting team in the conference, knocking down outside shots at a 37.3% clip. SLU is the best at contesting shots on the perimeter, though, allowing opponents to shoot just 21% from the outside. Their last three opponents averaged 15.6% from the 3-point line. I don’t think holding teams to that number is attainable, however, and the Billikens are due to surrender more 3s.
The Billikens’ defense has been one of the best in the A-10 and has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.2 in league play, per KenPom. They also allow just 64.1 PPG.
The Flyers have a handful of guys that can score, though, led by Nate Santos. The 6-foot-7 forward is leading the team with 14.5 PPG while Enoch Cheeks adds 13 PPG and 6.2 rebounds per game. Cheeks’ energy could really give Dayton a boost tonight. Malachi Smith and Zed Key both average 10 PPG.
Most of SLU’s scoring production comes from three players. Indiana State transfer Robbie Avila leads the team with 17.9 PPG and adds 6.6 RPG. Gibson Jimerson and Isaiah Swope chip in with 17.6 and 16.4 PPG.
It’s hard to trust the Flyers right now and backing them is a little sketchy, but I think Anthony Grant’s squad will figure out their woes and will get back to the way they were playing in December. Perhaps that starts tonight.
Dayton is 10-10 against the spread while SLU is 7-12. The over is 2-8 in SLU’s home games.
