Kennesaw State has been one of the biggest mid-major surprises of the season ahead of its game vs. Liberty.
The Owls (12-8 overall, 4-3 Conference USA) were selected to finish last in the preseason coaches poll but now sit tied for second in the conference standings with Liberty and New Mexico State. KSU nearly knocked off UTEP on the road on Saturday, but a Simeon Cottle 3-ball went long at the buzzer as the Owls fell 73-71.
Liberty (16-4, 4-3) also lost to UTEP by a bucket two weeks ago, but have since won their last two against NMSU and FIU.
This will be the first meeting between these programs since 2023 when the Owls beat the Flames in the ASUN championship to clinch their first-ever NCAA tourney berth.
KSU is 9-0 at home this season and 33-5 at home over the last three years. It beat Rutgers in its first home televised game this season.
Liberty at Kennesaw State Betting Odds
Liberty is a 3.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Kennesaw State while the Over/Under is at 146.5 points.
The Moneyline for Liberty is at -170 and at +140 for Kennesaw State.
Liberty at Kennesaw State On TV
The matchup between Liberty and Kennesaw State will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Liberty at Kennesaw State Prediction
I predict Kennesaw State will cover the 3.5-point spread as a home underdog. I also predict that this total to go under 146.5 points.
KSU has proved it’s not a team to be taken lightly, especially at home. Owls coach Antoine Pettway has his group playing with a ton of energy and effort on every possession and it shows. The Owls attack the rim, are active on defense, and control the boards.
An area where I think the Owls will find success tonight is on the offensive glass. They’re the best rebounding team in the conference and grab an offensive rebound on 36% of their possessions. The Flames allow an offensive rebound on 30% of possessions.
The Owls will also need to knock down shots from the outside against a Liberty defense that packs the paint. KSU is shooting just 30% from the arc this season but has easily taken by far the most 3s in the league. The quantity can make up for the quality here against a sharpshooting Liberty team.
KSU’s backcourt should have a significant height advantage over the Flames’ guards, so I think they’ll be able to shoot over them and get easier looks around the rim, especially freshman Adrian Wooley.
Wooley is an excellent finisher and is shooting 51.5% from inside. He’s averaging 18.1 points per game and 4.9 rebounds per game. Cottle leads the team (18.4 PPG) and freshman Braedan Lue adds 10.8 PPG and 5.8 RPG. The Owls start three freshmen — Wooley, Lue, and Jamil Miller.
Liberty is led by Kaden Metheny, who scores 13.4 PPG and — along with most of the rest of the team — can shoot lights out. Taelon Peter comes off the bench and is probably the Flames’ most complete scorer, averaging 12.3 PPG and shooting 41.6% from deep.
The Flames shoot 38% from the outside and have an effective field-goal percentage of 57.8%, according to KenPom. They’re not just chucking shots, but getting quality looks. Their bigs are great passers and set up their shooters well. Forwards Zach Cleveland and Owen Aquino are averaging 4.9 and 2.4 APG.
KSU’s height advantage could be important here, too, as it tries to contest these outside shots. The Owls allow opponents to shoot 31% from 3.
These are the top two scoring teams in CUSA, with KSU averaging 78.9 and LU averaging 78.6 PPG. However, I think both defenses will be forcing tough shots in this one. They both allow an effective field-goal percentage of 45.9%, which is tied for second in the league.
I think the Owls will be able to limit the Flames from getting hot from deep, and they’ll knock down enough shots to give them a chance to move to 10-0 at home.
LU is 6-2 against the spread on the road and KSU is 7-1 ATS at home. The over is 3-4-1 in the Owls’ home games.
