What a story this season has been for UC San Diego basketball. Not only did the men’s team earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament in the program’s first year of NCAA postseason eligibility, but the women’s team did as well. They had to wait four years for eligibility after transferring from D-II. I’d say it was worth the wait. The UC San Diego Tritons (30-4) will be putting the longest winning streak in the country on the line when they play Michigan in the first round.
They’ve won 15 games in a row dating back to Jan. 18 and all but two wins came by double-digits. They cruised through their two conference tournament games on the way to their first-ever Big West title.
Michigan (25-9) went on an impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament, defeating Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin. Wolverines junior guard Tre Donaldson hit some big shots, including a game-winning layup over Maryland and a late go-ahead 3 over Wisconsin in the B10 title game.
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UC San Diego vs. Michigan Odds
Michigan is a 2.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against UC San Diego while the Over/Under is at 142.5.
The Moneyline for UCSD is at +125 and -137 for Michigan.
UC San Diego vs. Michigan Channel
The NCAA Tournament matchup between UC San Diego and Michigan will be televised on TBS.
This South Regional contest tips off at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday in Denver.
UC San Diego vs. Michigan Prediction
I predict Michigan covers the 2.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 142.5 points.
I can definitely see why the Tritons are one of the most popular upset picks in the first round of the tourney. They’re well-rounded, well-coached, and hardly seem to make any mistakes. However, the big question is — how can the Tritons’ small frontcourt handle Michigan’s two all-conference 7-footers?
Well, the Tritons played UC Irvine and 7-foot-1 Bent Leuchten three times this season, meaning they have some sort of experience playing against an opponent the size of Michigan’s Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. Leuchten averaged 18.6 points in those three contests but only had 10 points in the Big West championship.
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The Tritons prioritize protecting the paint and play excellent interior defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 46.2% from inside the arc. That ranks 20th in the country, per KenPom. They play great help defense and had success against Leuchten by doubling him and forcing him to kick it out to the perimeter. Doubling one 7-footer is much different than trying to double two, though. UCSD only has one player above 6-foot-6 who plays more than 20 minutes a game, and that’s Nordin Kapic.
Whether or not Michigan can knock down 3-pointers could be the turning point in this game. Surely, Goldin and Wolf will be forced to kick out to open shooters, but the Wolverines struggle from the outside (33.4%). There’s a chance this game could play right into UCSD’s hands.
The Wolverines also struggle to take care of the ball, turning it over on 19.8% of possessions. UCSD forces a turnover 23.8% of the time, which is the second-best mark in the country. Wolf and Goldin lead the team in turnovers, so if they’re flustered, that could be bad news for Michigan.
Michigan has a stout defense and owns an adjusted defensive efficiency of 93.7, which is 14th best in D-I. It allows a defensive effective field-goal percentage of 46.3% (17th) and will make it difficult for the Tritons to find any easy buckets, especially inside.
UCSD is led by the Big West Player of the Year, Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who averages 19.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG. Tyler McGhie scores 16.4 PPG and shoots 38.4% from outside. He could get dangerously hot if the Wolverines lose track of him.
Goldin averages 16.7 points and 6.8 RPG for the Wolverines while Wolf averages 13.1 and 9.8. Donaldson adds 11.6 PPG.
The Tritons are for real, but I think Michigan’s size on the glass and defensively will be too much in the end. UCSD is 6-0 against the spread as an underdog and Michigan is 10-16 ATS as a favorite.
