Sometimes you just have to win ugly games.
That’s what Ohio did in its 61-59 victory over Kent State last week. The Bobcats found a way to win while playing Kent State’s brand of basketball to snap a two-game losing skid. And they did it without two starters and the potential MAC Player of the Year in AJ Clayton.
That’s not easy to do.
The Bobcats will still be without those two starters — Clayton and forward Aidan Hadaway — in tonight’s matchup. Hadaway is potentially out for the year after getting ankle surgery and there is no timetable for Clayton’s return from a leg injury.
Ohio and Toledo are both 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play and tied for third place in the MAC. Toledo is coming off an 84-71 win over Bowling Green last week.
The Rockets have won the last six meetings in this matchup and 11 of the last 12. The last time Ohio beat Toledo was on March 12, 2021, when it upset the top-seeded Rockets to advance to the MAC title game.
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Toledo at Ohio Betting Odds
Ohio is a 3.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Toledo while the Over/Under is at 160.5.
The Moneyline for Ohio is at -154 and at +152 for Toledo.
Toledo at Ohio On TV
The matchup between Toledo and Ohio will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Toledo at Ohio Prediction
I predict Toledo will cover the 3.5-point spread and might even pick up a win here. I also predict this game will barely go under 160.5 points.
I have to argue that Ohio got pretty fortunate in its win over Kent State. The Flashes missed 11 free throws and shot 3-of-19 from outside. I don’t expect Toledo to shoot the ball that badly.
This is going to be a completely opposite team than what the Bobcats saw against Kent State. Toledo plays at a much faster tempo and scores at a higher rate. The Rockets are averaging 77.8 points per game and have scored at least 85 points in four of their last five.
If the Bobcats were at full strength, I would expect them to have no trouble scoring with Toledo and for this game to have a better chance of going over the total. However, I think Ohio will try to slow the game down and limit Toledo’s possessions. Ohio also doesn’t have the depth it previously had which helps it play at a fast pace.
The Rockets’ defense isn’t very good, which is concerning for backing both Toledo and taking the under. According to KenPom, they have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 114.7, which ranks 327th in the country. They also allow an effective field-goal percentage of 54.6, which ranks 328th.
Toledo takes care of the ball, though, and gets to the free-throw line often. The Rockets only commit a turnover on 14.6% of their possessions, which ranks 14th in the nation. They average 21 free throws a game and knock down 73.4% of them. If they can do those two things tonight, they should be in this game.
The Rockets also have a handful of guys they can turn to if they need a bucket. Sophomore guards Sonny Wilson (15.3 PPG) and Sam Lewis (14.3 PPG) lead the team in scoring. Forward Javan Simmons is averaging 12.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest while Isaiah Adams averages 10.8 PPG.
Ohio had some players step up against KSU in the absence of Clayton and Hadaway. Center Vic Searls had nine points and seven rebounds and will need another big game tonight. Elijah Elliott also made some key plays during his uptick in minutes.
Bobcats guards Jackson Paveletzke, AJ Brown, and Shereef Mitchell will look to continue to fill much of the scoring production. All three average double-digit points.
Ohio hasn’t lost at home yet this season (8-0), so it’s tough to bet against them, but the Rockets have had the Bobcats’ number in the regular season the last few years and I think the Bobcats’ injuries are more noticeable tonight when they need some points.
Toledo is 9-2 against the spread on the road and Ohio is 5-9 ATS as a favorite.
