Dayton will continue its quest of climbing back up the conference standings tonight when it hosts VCU in a Friday night Atlantic 10 clash.
The Flyers started the conference slate 1-3, a start that could have been 1-4 if it wasn’t for Amael L’Etang’s game-winning overtime bucket over Loyola. Since then, they have won five of their last six and are 16-7 overall, 6-4 in league play, and fourth in the A-10 standings.
VCU (18-5, 8-2) has won nine of its last 10 and has beaten its last two opponents — Richmond and La Salle — by a combined 71 points. The Rams sit behind only George Mason in the conference standings.
The last time these teams played was the final regular-season game of last year, where the Flyers picked up a 91-86 overtime victory at home. I’m sure Max Shulga, Zeb Jackson, and Joe Bamisile remember that game well.
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VCU at Dayton Odds
VCU is a 1.5-point college basketball odds favorite on BetMGM against Dayton while the Over/Under is at 139.5 points.
The Moneyline for VCU is at -125 and at +105 for Dayton.
VCU at Dayton On TV
The matchup between VCU and Dayton will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
VCU at Dayton Prediction
I predict VCU will get the road win here. I also predict for this game to go over 139.5 points.
Both of these teams prioritize getting paint touches on offense and applying some sort of pressure on defense. VCU is typically better at both.
The Rams are one of the best defenses in the A-10 and allow just 62.7 points per game, which is second behind George Mason. They protect the rim really well, have the highest steal and blocked shot rates in the league, and force a turnover on 20.1% of possessions, per KenPom.
Dayton’s defense is average and allows an effective field-goal percentage of 54.5%, which is the second-worst mark in the league. This is important because the Rams’ spacing on offense is excellent, which leads to plenty of easy shots both at the rim off of cuts and on the perimeter.
The Rams are led by fifth-year players Bamisile and Shulga, who average 16.2 and 15.3 points per game. Phillip Russell scores 11.7 and Jackson adds 10.1 PPG.
Six-foot-7 forward Nate Santos leads the Flyers with 14.3 PPG and grabs 5.3 rebounds per game while Enoch Cheeks averages 12.9 PPG and 6.1 RPG. Javon Bennett scores 10.2 PPG and Malachi Smith averages 10 points and 5.7 PPG. Smith will be key in navigating this strong VCU defense and creating easy opportunities for the Flyers. Dayton is the best 3-point shooting team in the conference and Smith’s vision and ability to draw multiple defenders is a big reason why.
Dayton shoots 36% from the outside and VCU allows its opponents to shoot 30% from deep. If Dayton gets hot from 3 in front of its crowd of 13,000, that could be bad news for the Rams.
However, I think the Rams have the poise and definitely the experience to shield off any big Dayton run. The Rams are also the best offensive-rebounding team in the conference, grabbing an o-board 39.6% of the time. Offensive rebounds and second-chance points usually have a way of keeping an opponent from getting hot.
All in all, VCU is the better — and I think hungrier — team this season and will be eager to avenge last season’s loss. VCU coach Ryan Odom will have his squad prepared for this challenge.
The Rams are 14-6 against the spread as a favorite and the Flyers are 4-1 ATS as an underdog. The over is 13-9 for the Rams and 14-8 for the Flyers this season.
