George Mason lost its first conference game of the season at Rhode Island last week.
After trailing big early, GMU rallied to take a lead into halftime, but URI outscored the Patriots by 10 in the second half. It was only GMU’s second loss of the season as it fell to 18-2 overall and 6-1 in Atlantic 10 play.
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Davidson (12-7, 4-3) also dropped its last outing in a six-point loss to VCU. The Wildcats nearly took the lead late and only trailed by one, but couldn’t find the bottom of the net in the final minute-and-a-half.
This is the first matchup this year between these squads, and GMU won both meetings last season.
Davidson at George Mason Odds
As of this writing, George Mason is a 7.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Davidson, while the Over/Under is at 135.5 points.
The Moneyline for George Mason is -410 and +320 for Davidson.
Davidson at George Mason on TV
The matchup between Davidson and George Mason will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Davidson at George Mason Prediction
I predict George Mason covers the 7.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 135.5 points.
This Davidson group is decent on the defensive side of the ball, but I don’t know if they have anybody who will be able to contain GMU center Riley Allenspach. The Patriots like to play through the 6-foot-11 junior and use him in a lot of ball screens and screen-and-rolls. Most of the time, it seems like GMU gets a paint touch to him at least once a possession.
Allenspach is second on the Patriots with 13.3 points per game, grabs six rebounds per game, and is shooting 57.9% from the field.
Junior guard Kory Mincy leads GMU with 16.6 PPG and adds four rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He’s part of an athletic backcourt that I also think could pose some problems for Davidson, especially if Davidson wants to double-team Allenspach.
With GMU having so many guys that can find their own shot, I think the Wildcats could struggle in the half-court defensively. GMU could also find success scoring in transition with their athleticism, even though the Patriots prefer to slow the game down. They don’t take a ton of shots, but they create quality looks. They have the least amount of attempted shots in the league, but are shooting 48.6% from the field, which is second-best.
These are the two teams that play at the slowest pace in the A-10, according to KenPom. GMU owns an adjusted tempo of 63.6 (number of possessions in 40 minutes) while Davidson’s adjusted tempo is 63.3.
The Wildcats don’t often push the ball up the court, but instead get set up in their four-out offense, which features a ton of movement and off-ball screens. They drain the shot clock on most possessions.
GMU’s defense will also make Davidson work through the shot clock and will likely force them into tough looks. The Patriots are only allowing league opponents to shoot 42.1% from the field.
Davidson’s depth might be its biggest strength with 11 guys playing double-digit minutes and and nine playing 15+. The Wildcats get contributions from everywhere while Latvian sophomore Roberts Blums paces the team with 11 PPG. Army transfer Josh Scovens adds 10.2 points and 3.8 RPG.
At the rate this game is expected to be played, there’s a better chance for the Wildcats to cover this number, but in the end, I think GMU’s size and athleticism will make it difficult for Davidson on both ends of the floor.
I also don’t expect GMU to lose two consecutive conference games, so I think they’ll bounce back with a comfortable win at home.
