The race in the Atlantic 10 standings is tight as teams try to secure a top-six seed and at least one bye in the conference tournament.
Dayton (19-9, 10-5) currently sits third in the league standings and will earn a double-bye with a top-four finish. After a four-game losing skid to end January, the Flyers have won four in a row and five of their last six, with their only loss during that span coming at VCU. Their biggest win of the season came Tuesday when they defeated Saint Louis, 77-62, holding the Billikens to their lowest scoring output of the season.
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George Washington (16-12, 7-8) was struggling without its star big man, Rafael Castro, who missed six games but returned on Tuesday in a 104-77 victory over La Salle. The Revolutionaries lost four of the six games he missed, but have rallied to win three of the last four.
Sitting in the middle of the league standings, the Revs will likely need to win their final three games to earn a top-six seed.
Dayton at George Washington Odds
As of this writing, George Washington is a 3.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Dayton, while the Over/Under is 152.5 points.
The Moneyline for GWU is -180 and +150 for Dayton.
Dayton at George Washington on TV
The matchup between Dayton and George Washington will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Dayton at George Washington Prediction
I predict George Washington covers the 3.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 152.5 points.
One thing to watch in this game will be the matchup between Castro and 7-foot-1 senior Amael L’Etang. Both guys are focal points of their respective offenses, and both protect the rim well.
When Castro was injured, Luke Hunger filled his role and has since played great. In Castro’s first game back, GWU stuck with the two big men for most of the contest, and it was tough to guard. The Revs like to run their offense through their big men and create inside-out opportunities.
Both Castro and Hunger have great footwork and are efficient around the rim. They draw a lot of attention, which creates looks for their shooters on the perimeter. GWU has attempted the most 3-pointers in the A-10, where they are shooting 36.2% in league games. Per KenPom, 50% of those makes come off an assist, which is the highest in the conference.
GWU is averaging 86.6 PPG and has an effective field-goal percentage of 55.7%. Both rank second in the league. Castro, a 6-10 senior, leads the team with 15.9 PPG and 8.9 rebounds per game. He also averages 1.9 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Hunger is averaging 20.6 points and 9.1 RPG over the last six games.
Dayton’s defense is one of the best in the league at forcing turnovers and has a turnover rate of 21.9%. It should be able to generate some turnovers against a GWU squad that turns it over at the third-highest rate in the league.
When they’re not getting out and running the court off a turnover, the Flyers work through their offense and aren’t afraid to burn the shot clock. They like to get actions going toward the hoop and emphasize getting to the free-throw line. They get to the charity stripe more than any team in the league and knock them down at the highest rate (77%).
With Hunger and Castro inside at the same time, it could create some issues for Dayton getting to the rim, but it could also be beneficial if they’re able to get at least one of them in foul trouble. GWU is allowing 74.5 PPG and 45% from the field in league games.
Dayton averages 73.2 PPG and is led by 5-foot-10 senior guard Javon Bennett, who nets 15.9 PPG. De’Shayne Montgomery adds 14.1 PPG, and L’Etang averages 12.5 PPG and six RPG.
The Flyers are playing great right now, but I think this might be a letdown spot after a big win over SLU. I also think the Revs’ interior presence offensively might be tough for Dayton to overcome, and it leads them to a much-needed win.
