George Washington snapped its four-game losing skid with a victory over Rhode Island on Tuesday.
It was the first win for the Revolutionaries since standout big man Rafael Castro has been sidelined, who has been dealing with a foot injury. He’s one of the top players in the Atlantic 10 and is the leading scorer and rebounder for the Revs, who are 14-11 overall and 5-10 in A-10 play.
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George Mason (21-4 overall, 9-3 A-10) started conference play 6-0, but has since sputtered a bit. The Patriots are coming off an 82-70 loss to Richmond.
When these programs met on Jan. 16, GWU held a lead with less than two minutes to play, but GMU prevailed for a 69-64 victory.
George Mason at George Washington Odds
As of this writing, George Washington is a 2.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against George Mason, while the Over/Under is at 148.5 points.
The Moneyline for GWU is -150 and +135 for GMU.
George Mason at George Washington on TV
The matchup between George Washington and George Mason will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
George Mason at George Washington Prediction
If Castro doesn’t play, I predict George Mason covers the 2.5-point spread. If he does play, then I predict George Washington will cover this number. I also predict this game goes under 148.5 points.
As of this writing, it is unclear if the 6-foot-11 redshirt senior will be suiting up, but the A-10 availability reports will be released two hours prior to tip-off. With the Revs opening as a favorite, I think the assumption is that he’ll play. GWU has also been without forward Bubu Benjamin, who has started 17 games this season.
Castro’s absence has been a significant loss for the Revs on both sides of the floor. He’s arguably the best defender in the league and averages 1.5 blocks and 1.9 steals per game. GWU also likes to play through Castro on offense, and although the scheme may have changed some with Castro out, the Revs still prioritize getting the post involved. That’s mainly been Luke Hunger, who has been playing well in place of Castro.
Hunger is averaging 16.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game over the last three contests. Castro averages 15.9 PPG and nine RPG, while forward Garrett Johnson averages 13.4 PPG. The Revs also have a solid pair of guards in Christian Jones and Trey Autry.
Per KenPom, the Revs’ effective field-goal percentage of 54.2% in league games is the second-best in the A-10. They’re averaging 79.3 PPG against conference opponents.
With or without its full rotation, however, I still think GWU will struggle against GMU’s stout defense. The Patriots allow 67.1 PPG and have an adjusted defensive efficiency of 104.7, which is the second-best in the A-10, only behind a dominant Saint Louis squad.
George Mason also wants its offense to funnel through its 6-foot-11 junior big man Riley Allenspach and get him paint touches more often than not. It opens the floor for GMU’s excellent trio of guards in Kory Mincy, Fatt Hill, and Jahari Long.
Mincy leads the Patriots with 15.6 PPG while Long averages 11.6 points and 3.8 assists per game. Hill chips in with 11.1 PPG. Allenspach averages 13.4 PPG and 6.1 RPG. GMU only scores 70 PPG but shoots an efficient 47.4% from the floor.
GWU has a solid rotation, but if it’s without its best defensive player, I think it will struggle defensively on the interior against the Patriots. I think that might be the decisive factor in this one. Not to mention, the Revs will also have their hands full with GMU’s backcourt.
