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Mountain West Basketball: Grand Canyon at San Diego State Prediction, Odds, And How To Watch

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
February 17, 2026
San Diego State forward Magoon Gwath

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

San Diego State played what may have been its best defensive game of the season Saturday in a 71-57 win against Nevada. 

The Aztecs forced 14 turnovers and turned them into 23 points. They held the Wolf Pack to a .326 shooting percentage and 25% from 3-point range, and it was the 10th time this season that San Diego State held an opponent to fewer than 60 points. 

The Aztecs (18-6, 12-2 MWC) will need a similar performance from the defense Tuesday at home against Mountain West newcomer Grand Canyon (16-9, 9-5). The Antelopes won the teams’ first meeting of the season, 70-69, in Phoenix, Arizona. 

The return of 7-foot center Magoon Gwath was the highlight of San Diego State’s dominant performance against a Nevada team that has defied the odds by even being in the hunt for the regular-season championship. The Wolf Pack was picked to finish No. 7 in the preseason poll.

Gwath, who missed six games with a hip injury, didn’t start, but he scored 13 points in 13:30 of playing time and didn’t miss a shot. He finished the game 3-for-3 from 3-point range and 4-for-4 from the free throw line, and he racked up a season-high five blocked shots. Gwath was named the Mountain West Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year after leading the league with 68 blocked shots last season.

RELATED: College Basketball Odds to Win the 2026 National Championship

The Aztecs were still missing talented freshman Elzie Harrington (leg), but guard Reese Dixon-Waters carried the offense against Nevada. Dixon-Waters, who missed last season with an injury, led the way with 20 points, extending his streak of 14-straight games with at least 10 points. 

Grand Canyon lost back-to-back games against UNLV and New Mexico, but the Antelopes are coming off a 94-79 win at San Jose State on Saturday. UNLV transfer Jaden Henley led the team with 24 points, eight assists, and five rebounds. Makaih Williams added 14 points, eight rebounds, and six assists.

Henley leads the Lopes and ranks No. 6 in the Mountain West with 17.3 points a game.

Grand Canyon at San Diego State Odds   

Grand Canyon is an 8.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM, and the Over/Under is 138.5 points. 

The Moneyline is at -400 for the Aztecs and +310 for Grand Canyon.

Grand Canyon leads the all-time series 5-1, but San Diego State is 12-1 at Viejas Arena this season and 168-33 at home since the 2012-13 season.

Grand Canyon at San Diego State on TV   

The Mountain West game featuring Grand Canyon and San Diego State will be televised on CBS Sports Network. 

Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. 

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Grand Canyon at San Diego State Prediction   

I predict San Diego State wins 75-66.

Getting Gwath back at this point in the season is huge for the Aztecs. Even if he doesn’t light up the scoreboard, he’s one of the best rim protectors in the Mountain West. Add that to what is already one of the best defensive teams in the country, and you have a formula for a deep postseason run. 

Gwath wasn’t on the court when San Diego State lost at Grand Canyon. He will be this time, and the Antelopes aren’t going to have an answer for him. His shot-blocking ability, paired with a stingy defense and Dixon-Waters’ scoring streak, could help the Aztecs run away with this one. 

Dixon-Waters and Jeremiah Oden, who replaced Gwath in the starting lineup, both recently surpassed 1,000 career points. 

San Diego State needs this win to stay on Utah State’s heels in the race for the Mountain West regular-season championship, especially because the Aztecs’ final four games look like this: vs. Utah State, at New Mexico, at Boise State, vs. UNLV. 

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