This meeting between a pair of Atlantic schools is one of the most intriguing matchups in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64.
VCU, from the Atlantic 10, has only lost one game since Jan. 10 and is coming off a conference tournament title. The Rams (27-7) are in their first season under Phil Martelli Jr., who also guided Bryant to an NCAA tourney berth last season. VCU went to the NCAA tournament under Ryan Odom last year.
The Rams went 1-1 against ACC opponents this year, defeating Virginia Tech and losing to NC State.
North Carolina (24-8) has lost its last two games, including a loss to Clemson in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. The Tar Heels have gone 5-3 since losing standout freshman Caleb Wilson for the season after he had surgery on a broken right thumb. He’ll more than likely be a top pick in the NBA Draft in June.
This is UNC’s fourth NCAA tourney appearance in the five years under Hubert Davis.
North Carolina vs. VCU Odds
As of this writing, North Carolina is a 2.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against VCU, while the Over/Under is 153.5 points.
The Moneyline for UNC is -140 and +120 for VCU.
North Carolina vs. VCU On TV
The matchup between VCU and North Carolina will be televised on TNT.
Thursday’s game is scheduled to tip off at 6:50 p.m. ET.
North Carolina vs. VCU Prediction
I predict VCU wins. I also predict this game goes over 153.5 points.
I think the key matchup in this game will come in the frontcourt between a pair of international big men in VCU’s Lazar Djokovic (Serbia) and UNC’s Henri Veesaar (Estonia).
The 6-foot-11 Djokovic is crafty around the rim, but can also stretch the floor. He’s excellent at getting to the free-throw line, and his 206 free-throw attempts were by far the most in the A-10 this season. I anticipate him going at Veesaar early and trying to get him in foul trouble. The 7-foot Veesaar finished with four or more fouls in eight games this season.
As a group, VCU wants to get downhill and get to the free-throw line. They play fast, but under control, and generate a lot of quality looks. Per KenPom, their adjusted offensive efficiency of 119.9 is 46th-best in the country, and they’re averaging 81.6 points per game. They’re also shooting a solid 36.7% from 3-point range.
Djokovic is scoring 13.5 PPG and is shooting 78.2% from the free-throw line and 51.4% from the field. Terrence Hill Jr. comes off the bench to pace the Rams with 14.4 PPG. Both guys were first-team A-10 selections, while Hill was the Sixth Man of the Year.
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UNC’s defense has been steady this season and only allows 71.3 PPG. The Tar Heels aren’t very disruptive, though, and only force turnovers on 13.6% of possessions, which nearly ranks in the bottom 20 in the country. A comfortable VCU offense is a dangerous VCU offense.
Without Wilson, Veesaar has become the go-to guy for UNC. He’s used in a lot of pick-and-rolls where he can also pop out and is shooting 42% (37-88) from the outside. How VCU guards Veesaar, especially on the pick-and-roll, will be interesting to see.
Veesaar is averaging 16.7 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, and shooting 61.4% from the field. Six-foot-3 senior guard Seth Trimble is scoring 14 PPG for the Tar Heels, who average 79.8 PPG. UNC isn’t the best from the outside (34.5%), so I anticipate the Rams will prioritize defending inside and limiting paint touches.
VCU is allowing 71.9 PPG and owns an effective field-goal percentage of 48.9, which ranks 66th in the country. I also think the Rams have a chance at winning the rebounding battle, as Wilson was the Tar Heels’ leading rebounder. Whoever controls the boards could very well win this game.
With a veteran guard like Trimble, it’s hard not to think he’ll guide UNC to a win here, but I think VCU’s ability to get to the free-throw line and knock down 3-pointers will be what allows it to prevail.
