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Mountain West Basketball: San Diego State at Air Force Prediction, Odds, And How To Watch

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
February 7, 2026
San Diego State forward Reese Dixon-Waters

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

If the Mountain West named a comeback player of the year, San Diego State’s Reese Dixon-Waters would already have the award locked up.

Dixon-Waters’ three-year career at USC culminated in him being named Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year in 2022-23, and he made an impression during his debut season at San Diego State in 2023-24. The 6-foot-5 guard from Long Beach, California, played in all 37 of the Aztecs’ games and started 23. He averaged 9.6 points a game and added 43 assists and 21 steals.

RELATED: College Basketball Odds to Win the 2026 National Championship

He was named preseason All-Mountain West last year, but he missed the whole season because of a stress fracture in his foot. Dixon-Waters is back on the court for the sixth and final season of his career, and he has become a key piece on what may be the best team in the Mountain West.

Dixon-Waters leads the Aztecs (16-6, 10-2 MWC) with 12.4 points a game, and he’s coming off a season-high 23 points in a 72-63 win over Wyoming on Tuesday. 

He leads San Diego State into a road game at Air Force (3-19, 0-11), a game the Aztecs need to win to stay within striking range of Mountain West-leading Utah State (19-3, 10-2). The Aggies beat the Aztecs 71-66 on Jan. 31. 

San Diego State is still playing without 7-foot sophomore Magoon Gwath, who has missed the past five games with a hip injury. He was named Mountain West Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year last season after he led the conference with 68 blocked shots.

Air Force has lost 15-straight games, including an 81-57 setback at Grand Canyon on Tuesday. The Falcons are led by 6-foot-9 junior Caleb Walker, who is averaging 11.9 points and 5.1 rebounds a game. Six-foot-3 freshman Kam Sanders is adding 11.4 points a game, and 6-foot-8 freshman Lucas Hobin is chipping in with 11.2. 


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San Diego State at Air Force Odds  

San Diego State is a 21.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM as of this writing, and the Over/Under is 136.5 points.

The Moneyline is at -10000 for San Diego State and +1850 for Air Force. 

San Diego State leads the all-time series 68-24, and the Aztecs have won 12 in a row against the Falcons. 

San Diego State at Air Force on TV  

The Mountain West game featuring San Diego State and Air Force will be televised on FS1.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. 

San Diego State at Air Force Prediction  

I predict San Diego State wins 92-68.

Dixon-Waters and fellow guard Miles Byrd might be the top guard duo in the Mountain West. They complement each other perfectly. Dixon-Waters is a dangerous scorer and one of the top pure shooters in the conference. Byrd is a dangerous scorer, too, but he also leads the Aztecs with 60 assists and is one of the best defensive players in the league regardless of position.

They’re going to have a field day against an Air Force squad that ranks last in the Mountain West with 61.1 points a game and is giving up the second-most points a game in the league with 77.4.

Even without Gwath or talented freshman Elzie Harrington (leg injury) on the court, the Aztecs should have no problem matching Air Force’s size in the post. Expect Jeremiah Oden and Miles Heide to start, and talented freshman Tae Simmons to come off the bench.

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