Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s both sit near the top of the West Coast Conference standings, looking up at Gonzaga. There’s still an opportunity for the Broncos and the Gaels to win the WCC regular-season title and lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney, but both will need to win their final two games, starting with tonight’s matchup.
The Broncos (22-6, 13-2) fell to the Zags at home on Valentine’s Day, but bounced back with a dominant win over San Francisco last Saturday. They host Oregon State this Saturday for their final regular-season contest.
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Saint Mary’s (25-4, 14-2) is coming off a victory over Washington State and has won six in a row after losing to Gonzaga on Jan. 31, who it will host Saturday to close out the regular season.
The Gaels’ other league loss came at Santa Clara on Jan. 17. They shot just 38% (18-58) from the field in that meeting as SCU led the entire game.
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Santa Clara at Saint Mary’s Odds
As of this writing, Saint Mary’s is a 5.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Santa Clara, while the Over/Under is at 152.5 points.
The Moneyline for SMC is -230 and +190 for SCU.
Santa Clara at Saint Mary’s on TV
The matchup between Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 11 p.m. ET.
Santa Clara at Saint Mary’s Prediction
I predict Saint Mary’s covers the 5.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 152.5 points.
Santa Clara wants to play fast. Whether it’s off a make or a miss, the Broncos waste no time getting the ball up the court. Their adjusted tempo of 71.7 (possessions per 40 minutes) ranks first in the WCC.
The last matchup between these programs only had 67 possessions. Outside of its games against Pacific, it was the lowest number of possessions for a WCC game featuring Santa Clara. The game was played at Saint Mary’s preferred pace, yet Santa Clara prevailed. I expect this matchup to be played at a similar pace.
The Broncos also had success getting into the paint in the previous meeting, where they scored 36 points and managed to draw Gonzaga’s bigs away from the rim to open up the interior.
SCU only had 14 attempts from 3-point range in that game. They average 28.9 3-point attempts per game, by far the most in the league. It’ll be interesting to see if the Broncos have the same approach this time around.
Santa Clara has had one of the top offenses in the league all season and, per KenPom, has a league-best adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.8. Its effective field-goal percentage of 57.8% also ranks first in the WCC, and it is averaging 84 points per game.
Sophomore guard Christian Hammond leads the Broncos with 16.4 PPG, while Elijah Mahi scores 14.4 PPG. Freshman Allen Graves comes off the bench, where he is averaging 11.1 PPG and 6.6 rebounds per game. He’s been one of the best players in the league this season, but was injured against USF and is a game-time decision for today.
Regardless of game plan, the Broncos will likely still find it difficult to score on SMC’s stout defense. The Gaels only allow 64.3 PPG and have a defensive effective field-goal percentage of 46.8, which ranks first in the WCC.
Offensively, the Gaels’ methodical and systematic style leads to a lot of inside-out opportunities and quality shots. Their AOE of 118.9 is second behind SCU, and they have an effective field-goal percentage of 54.5% in league games. Their 40.1% from deep leads the league.
Six-foot-8 junior Paulius Murauskas is second in the conference with 19 PPG, and he grabs 7.6 RPG. SMC also has a pair of dynamic guards in Joshua Dent and Mikey Lewis. Dent is averaging 13.2 PPG and 5.7 assists per game, while Lewis scores 13.1 PPG.
Santa Clara was solid defensively in the last meeting, and it only allows 72 PPG on the season. However, I don’t think the Gaels will struggle as much offensively as they did in that first meeting, and they come away with a victory at home.
