It wasn’t that long ago that Buffalo looked like it would be a competitor in the MAC championship race.
The Bulls were 13-2 overall and 3-0 in league play. Since then, though, they have lost four games in a row. Those losses came to the top four teams in the conference standings. Outside of a 19-point loss to Akron on Tuesday, the Bulls were competitive in each contest and even almost knocked off undefeated Miami (Ohio) in overtime.
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Buffalo was without sophomore guard Daniel Freitag against Akron, who was in concussion protocol. Freitag leads the league in scoring with 20.4 points per game. As of this writing, it is unclear if he’ll be suiting up tonight against Massachusetts.
The Minutemen (12-8, 3-5) have won three of their last four and are coming off a two-point win over Toledo. Each of their league losses have come by 10 points or less, and their last three losses have come by a combined six points.
UMass at Buffalo Odds
As of this writing, UMass is a 1.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Buffalo. The Over/Under is at 159.5 points.
The Moneyline for UMass is -135 and +114 for Buffalo.
UMass at Buffalo on TV
The matchup between UMass and Buffalo will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
UMass at Buffalo Prediction
If Freitag plays, then I predict Buffalo will win, and this game will go over 160.5 points. If Freitag is forced to miss his second consecutive game, then I predict UMass will win, and the total will go under 160.5 points.
Freitag isn’t the only offensive threat on the Bulls. Backcourt mate Ryan Sabol is averaging 17.6 PPG, and his 63 made 3-pointers are the most in the conference by 15. Wing Angelo Brizzi is averaging 11 PPG, and Tim Oboh is a big presence inside and shooting at a 63% clip.
When Freitag is on the court, however, it opens things up for these guys, especially with his ability to drive and draw defenders. When the defense doesn’t have to worry about him, it’ll make shotmaking much more difficult for the rest of the team. UMass also owns a decent defense and allows a league-best 29% from the outside.
Prior to Freitag’s injury, Buffalo had the same starting lineup in every game this season. The Bulls also haven’t gone deep into their bench this year, which could play a factor against the Minutemen, who like to push the ball up the floor behind freshman point guard Danny Carbuccia.
Carbuccia ranks second in the MAC with six assists per game and does a lot of initiating the offense by getting penetration. Led by forward Leonardo Bettiol’s 17.2 PPG, the Minutemen have four players scoring in double-figures. Marcus Banks Jr. chips in with 16.1 PPG and can score at all three levels.
I don’t anticipate UMass will have many issues scoring against the Bulls, who allow an effective field-goal percentage of 56.1%. The Minutemen are averaging 80 PPG, and I think their balanced attack will prove effective. The Bulls have allowed at least 81 points in their last four matchups.
With Buffalo at full strength, I anticipate this game could be a shootout that could come down to the final possession. That still might be the case, but if the Bulls are without their top player, I think UMass picks up a quality road win.
