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Mountain West Basketball: Utah State at UNLV Prediction, Odds, And How To Watch

Ron Counts by Ron Counts
March 3, 2026
Utah State guard Drake Allen

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

UNLV’s Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is making it hard for voters not to hand him the Mountain West Player of the Year award, especially after he scored a career-high 42 points and hit a season-high eight 3-pointers in the Rebels’ overtime victory against Nevada on Saturday.

The transfer from Illinois leads the Mountain West with 21 points a game. He has scored more than 20 points in nine-straight games and in 11 of the Rebels’ past 12 contests. The 6-foot-1 junior has put up more than 30 points in four of UNLV’s past five games, including 36 at Boise State on Feb. 13.

The reality is Gibbs-Lawhorn probably won’t win player of the year because UNLV (15-14, 10-8 MWC) isn’t a contender for the Mountain West title. But he can strengthen his case if he powers the Rebels past conference-leading Utah State tonight.

RELATED: College Basketball Odds to Win the 2026 National Championship

The Aggies (24-5, 14-4 MWC) are coming off a 74-69 win over Grand Canyon, which put them back in first place in the league and snapped a two-game losing streak. They’ve already clinched a top-four seed in the Mountain West Tournament, which comes with a bye, but they would love nothing more than to ride off into the sunset with one more regular-season title. 

Utah State won its first Mountain West regular-season title in 2023-24. The Aggies are joining San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Washington State, Texas State, and Gonzaga in the Pac-12 next season. 

Fifth-year senior Drake Allen led the Aggies with 15 points against Grand Canyon. Vanderbilt transfer MJ Collins Jr. added 13 points, and Mason Falslev chipped in with 11 points and nine rebounds. Falslev may be Gibbs-Lawhorn’s biggest competition for Mountain West Player of the Year.

Collins ranks No. 4 in the Mountain West with 17.8 points a game. Falslev ranks No. 8 in the conference with 15.8 points a night. He also leads the Aggies with 5.7 rebounds a game and 57 steals, and he has 83 assists to his credit this season. 

Six-foot-8 High Point transfer Kimani Hamilton is averaging 12.3 points and 4.9 rebounds a game for UNLV, while 6-foot-9 freshman Tyrin Jones is adding 11.3 points and 4.7 rebounds a night. 

Utah State at UNLV Odds

Utah State is a 7.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM as of this writing, and the Over/Under is 156.5 points. 

The Moneyline is at -325 for the Aggies and +260 for UNLV.

UNLV leads the all-time series 36-17, but Utah State has won eight of the past 10 meetings. The Rebels took their first meeting this season, winning 86-76 in Logan, Utah, on Jan. 20. 

Utah State at UNLV On TV

The Mountain West game featuring Utah State and UNLV will be televised on CBS Sports Network. 

Tip-off is scheduled for 11 p.m. ET.

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Utah State at UNLV Prediction

I predict Utah State wins 78-67.

UNLV is a dangerous team. Gibbs-Lawhorn is, by far, the most talented scorer in the Mountain West, and Jones is quickly emerging as one of the conference’s top freshmen. The problem is the Rebels don’t have another great shooter to complement Gibbs-Lawhorn, which is why he’s carrying the team from 3-point range. And they don’t rebound all that well, which is really going to hurt them against the Aggies.

Utah State has a versatile lineup that can play fast or shoot the lights out if it has to, but the Aggies can also go big and push teams around under the basket. Karson Templin has thrown his name in the hat for Sixth Man of the Year with how he has played. Adlan Elamin and Garry Clark can both crash the boards, and Falslev may be the best rebounding guard in the conference.

Utah State’s depth has really played a factor late in the season. The Aggies got 30 points off the bench against Grand Canyon. I expect that depth to help lead them to a win tonight, setting up a massive regular-season finale against New Mexico on Saturday that could decide the Mountain West championship. 

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