There appear to be several contenders in the Atlantic 10, and two of them will clash when VCU visits George Mason on Saturday.
VCU (11-5, 2-1) has the second-best odds to win the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship via BetMGM behind St. Louis, while George Mason (15-1, 3-0) has the fourth-best odds.
George Mason has won six in a row since its lone loss, a 73-62 defeat at Virginia Tech. The Patriots are coming off Wednesday’s 67-58 win at Fordham.
VCU looks to bounce back from Wednesday’s 71-62 home loss to Saint Louis. In that game, VCU led 62-61 before Saint Louis scored the game’s final 10 points. It was a difficult shooting night for the Rams, who were 18-for-63 from the field (.286), including 6-of-24 from beyond the arc (.250).
One redeeming factor was that VCU shot 20-of-24 from the line (.830).
VCU at George Mason Odds
As of this writing, VCU is a 1.5-point college basketball betting favorite.
The Over/Under is 147.5 points.
VCU at George Mason on TV
Saturday’s game between VCU at George Mason is scheduled for noon ET and is being televised on ESPNU.
VCU at George Mason Prediction
I like VCU laying the points. This is only the third road game of the season for the Rams. They are 1-1, losing at North Carolina State and winning at Duquesne.
Not to take anything away from George Mason, but the schedule hasn’t been overly challenging. In fact, according to Kempom.com, the non-conference strength of schedule rating has been 350th nationally, while VCU is 250.
That said, George Mason is still 11-0 on the road.
Entering the weekend, VCU was ranked 45th in Kenpom.com, compared to George Mason, which is 84th.
George Mason is sixth in the Atlantic 10 in scoring (78.5 PPG) but is second in scoring defense, allowing 66 points per game. VCU is fourth in scoring (85.6 PPG) but 11th in scoring defense, allowing 73.3 PPG. In addition, VCU is the better three-point shooting team – .368 to .352, and the better free-throw shooting squad – .747 to .732.
A faster-paced game will favor VCU. That’s because, according to Kenpom.com, George Mason’s adjusted tempo (65.7 possessions per 40 minutes) is 310th, while VCU is at 70.3 possessions per 40, which is 79th.
George Mason averages just 8.8 fast break points per game, while VCU averages 14.7.
One of the keys is stopping George Mason’s leading scorer, Kory Mincy, a 6-foot-2 junior and transfer from Presbyterian College. Mincy is averaging 17.2 points per game and is shooting .420 from three-point range and .930 from the foul line. George Mason’s top three-point shooter is Jahari Long, a 6-foot-5 graduate student and transfer from Maryland. Long is shooting .458 from beyond the arc and is the third-leading scorer, averaging 11.1 points per game. The second leading scorer is Riley Allenspach (12.6 PPG). Allenspach is a 6-foot-11 junior and transfer from Samford. He also averages a team-high 5.9 rebounds.
VCU is led in scoring by sophomore combo guard Terrence Hill Jr., who averages 14.2 points in only 19.5 minutes per game. He has yet to start a game, but is shooting .433 from the three-point range and .893 from the foul line. Lazar Djokovic, a 6-foot-11 junior, who began his career at Xavier and played at Charleston last season, averages 13.1 points and 5.6 rebounds.
Even though VCU lost last time out, playing a team the caliber of Saint Louis should prepare the Rams for the matchup at George Mason. We’re counting on VCU not having two poor performances in a row. The sting of the late-game meltdown against Saint Louis should be motivation for the Rams to rebound.
