It’s looking more and more likely that Wright State will run away with the Horizon League’s regular-season title.
The Raiders (15-8, 10-2) have only lost one game since Dec. 16, which came two weeks ago to Cleveland State. Their 10 conference wins are tied with Oakland for the most in the league, and the Raiders have beaten Oakland twice already. They’re on a three-game win streak and coming off an eight-point win over Green Bay.
Tonight, WSU will take on the reigning Horizon League regular-season and tournament champs in Robert Morris. It is the first meeting of the campaign between the two programs.
The Colonials (14-10, 6-7) have had an up-and-down conference season so far and have struggled to string together wins. They’re coming off an 83-71 loss to Purdue Fort Wayne on Saturday.
Wright State at Robert Morris Odds
As of this writing, Wright State is a 2.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Robert Morris while the Over/Under is at 147.5 points.
The Moneyline for WSU is -142 and +120 for RMU.
Wright State at Robert Morris on TV
The matchup between Wright State and Robert Morris will be televised on ESPNU.
Tonight’s game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Wright State at Robert Morris Prediction
I predict Wright State covers the 2.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes under 147.5 points.
It’s hard to know which version of this Bobby Mo team will show up. At times, the Colonials struggle defensively and don’t get a ton of contributions from their offense. Other times, they’re clicking on both ends of the court. If they’re not buttoned up tonight, Wright State will take advantage.
RMU primarily relies on DeSean Goode and Ryan Prather Jr. offensively. Both guys average 15 points per game, while Nikolaos Chitikoudis adds 11 PPG. Goode also grabs 8.9 rebounds per game, and his 62.1% from the field leads the league. The 6-foot-8 sophomore is about as efficient as it gets.
I imagine the Raiders do their best to try to take Goode and Prather out of the game as much as possible, which means others will likely need to step up. WSU has arguably the best defense in the Horizon and is allowing a league-best 72.2 PPG. Per KenPom, its adjusted defensive efficiency of 109.8 in conference games is also the best mark in the league.
The Colonials’ offense features a ton of screen-and-rolls, stagger screens, and other combinations of screens. The Raiders play aggressive defensively, so if RMU is able to slip some of those screens or get WSU to overpursue, it could open up some looks for the Colonials.
Expect RMU to attack the offensive glass as well, where it grabs 38.2% of its misses.
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Like Wright State, the Colonials play an aggressive style of defense, but they’re more prone to getting beat off the dribble and struggle to recover. Their defensive effective field-goal percentage of 55.2% is the second-worst in the conference. They also send opponents to the free-throw line often and have given up the second-most free-throw makes and attempts in the Horizon. Another result of getting beat off the dribble.
The Raiders have a couple of guys in Michael Cooper and TJ Burch who can get to the rim and to the free-throw line often. Cooper, a freshman, has recently been coming off the bench for WSU after returning from an injury and is averaging a team-high 14.5 PPG. Burch averages 11.2 PPG to go with 3.4 assists per game and three steals per game.
I expect Cooper and Burch to have no problems generating offense against the Colonials.
In league games, WSU is averaging 80.5 PPG and is shooting 49.1% from the field, which is the best in the Horizon. Its adjusted offensive efficiency of 120.8 also ranks first.
I think limiting Goode and Prather will be the biggest key for the Raiders to get a win here, and, while it won’t be easy, they’ll be able to contain them enough to extend their win streak to four.
