In the era of the 12-team format in the College Football Playoff, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed to make the CFP.
That team will need to win a conference championship, and that won’t be easy in any G5 league this season. Here’s a look at the G5 teams that have the best chances of appearing in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship.
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2025 G5 CFP Predictions
I predict Boise State will make the College Football Playoff as of right now. But Memphis and James Madison, to me, are intriguing picks as well.
The Case For Boise State
Boise State is the clear favorite to win the Mountain West, and if the Broncos do win the league again, they would likely be a frontrunner to make it back to the CFP as well.
There’s no doubt the Broncos face a tough schedule this year. They obviously also lost some talent after last season. But they have so many standout players coming back that I think head coach Spencer Danielson will lead Boise State back to the CFP.
Games at South Florida and Notre Dame, as well as a home clash against App State, in Boise State’s non-conference slate will not be easy. But I still think the Broncos will win two of those three contests and will be 5-1 going into the second half of their regular season.
And from there, I don’t see another loss before the Mountain West Championship.
I think an 11-1 regular season record, a Mountain West title, and a CFP berth should be the expectation for the 2025 Boise State team.
The Case For Memphis
Memphis isn’t a favorite for many people to win the American, but neither was Army a year ago. The Tigers’ schedule is nearly perfect for a G5 team with CFP hopes.
They play a Power Four team – Arkansas – that isn’t predicted to have a winning record in 2025 at home. And they play two non-conference Group of Five teams, Georgia State and Troy, which also aren’t expected to be spectacular by any means. I could see Memphis entering conference play with a 4-0 record.
As for their league slate, the Tigers get most of their tougher games at home. They will face USF, Tulane, and Navy at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis while facing beatable teams like FAU, Tulsa, UAB, and Rice on the road. A clash against East Carolina on the road in November could prove difficult, but I could see Memphis winning that game as well.
Even if the Tigers slip up once or twice, maybe against Navy or at ECU, that would still put the Tigers at 10 wins for the regular season. But I think Memphis will go 7-1 in league play, will appear in the American Championship, and will be in the College Football Playoff discussion in December.
The Case For James Madison
James Madison is my pick to win the Sun Belt.
The Dukes went 9-4 overall last year, ending the season with their first win in a bowl game in program history by beating Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl. And yet somehow that felt like a disappointing end for JMU.
But with head coach Bob Chesney in his second year with the team, I think the Dukes will be even better in 2025. In fact, it’s possible JMU is favored in every one of its games except its matchup at Louisville in September.
Don’t get me wrong. There are some tough games on this schedule, including at Liberty and Texas State as well as games at home against Louisiana and Washington State.
But looking at the JMU roster, I think the Dukes are better than those teams.
Before Chesney was head coach, and even after he took over, JMU has been one of the top teams in the Sun Belt since it jumped up from the FCS. I think JMU is in a position to finally win a conference title as an FBS team in 2025.
2025 CFP Betting Odds For G5 Teams
There are several G5 teams with college football betting odds to make the CFP, via BetMGM. The Group of Five teams with the best odds are:
- Boise State +175
- Tulane +750
- Memphis +825
- Navy +1100
- James Madison +1100
- Liberty +1100
- UTSA +1300
- UNLV +1400
- Army +1500
- Texas State +1800
- Toledo +1800
2025 CFP Championship Odds For G5 Teams
There are also betting odds for G5 teams to win the national championship. The top five squads with betting odds to win the title at BetMGM are:
- Tulane +15000
- UNLV +20000
- Boise State +25000
- Texas State +30000
- Memphis +30000
2025 College Football Championship Predictions
I predict Texas will play Penn State in the College Football Playoff championship with Texas winning.
Right now, I think the Longhorns, led by Heisman frontrunner Arch Manning, are the best squad in college football.
Projecting the teams to win the SEC and Big Ten is especially difficult because those two conferences are always loaded with talent. But from my perspective, Texas and Penn State are the most complete teams and would be the most prepared to make it through a daunting CFP bracket.
College Football Playoff Teams Projections
I predict Texas, Penn State, Clemson, and Texas Tech will be the top four teams in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.
I predict the conference championship winner ranked the next highest will be Boise State, and I believe the CFP Selection Committee will rank the Broncos No. 10.
From there, I’m projecting Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU, and Oklahoma will be in the CFP.
2025 CFP Games Schedule
The first round of the CFP will be played on Friday, Dec. 19, and Saturday, Dec. 20. The CFP quarterfinals will take place on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1. The CFP semifinals will occur on Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9.
In the first round, the No. 12-seeded team will play at the No. 5-seeded team. The No. 9 team will go on the road to face the No. 8 team. The No. 11 team will travel to take on the No. 6 team. And the No. 10 team will compete at the No. 7 team.
The winner of the 5/12 matchup will play the No. 4-seeded team in the quarterfinals. Whoever wins the 8/9 contest will go against the top-seeded team. The victor in the 6/11 contest will next face the No. 3 team. And whoever is triumphant in the 7/10 bout will compete against the No. 2-seeded team.
The winners of the games involving the No. 1-seeded team and the No. 4-seeded team will square off in the semifinals, and the winner of the games involving the No. 3-seeded team and the No. 2-seeded team will also play in the semifinals.
The victor of those two contests will see each other in the national championship.
College Football Playoff Rankings
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has yet to release any rankings and will do so for the first time on Tuesday, Nov. 4.
So if we’re going off of the preseason Associated Press Top 25, the teams in the CFP right now would be:
- No. 1 Texas
- No. 2 Penn State
- No. 3 Ohio State
- No. 4 Clemson
- No. 5 Georgia
- No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 7 Oregon
- No. 8 Alabama
- No. 9 LSU
- No. 10 Miami
- No. 11 Arizona State
- No. 12 Boise State
College Football Playoff Format
The College Football Playoff will feature 12 teams, just like it did last season.
The five highest-ranked conference champions in the FBS – decided by the CFP Selection Committee – will make the field, as well as the next seven highest-ranked teams.
The higher seeds in those matchups in the first round will host. Re-seeding will not occur, nor will alterations be made to avoid rematches from the regular season or contests between teams in the same conference.
